All posts by Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics Andrey Kamenov is a data scientist working for Advameg Inc. His background includes teaching statistics, stochastic processes and financial mathematics in Moscow State University and working for a hedge fund. His academic interests range from statistical data analysis to optimal stopping theory. Andrey also enjoys his hobbies of photography, reading and powerlifting.

Why finance jobs are dependent on the economy

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

How much does the state of the economy affect jobs in the finance sector? According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns data, different industries in this sector exhibit significantly different patterns.

Most of all, we are interested in how finance jobs were affected by the 2007-08 crisis, and if they are influenced by financial markets.

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E-commerce small businesses in the Midwest are booming

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

Recently, we published a series of posts about the regional patterns in employment changes. Naturally, most of the time the greatest growth occurred in larger industries, such as hospitals or schools.

It would be interesting to see the same patterns specifically relating to small businesses in the Midwest. For this purpose, we focused on establishments with fewer than 10 employees so that our study includes sole proprietors as well as small firms.

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Returning borrowers have better default rates

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

We saw in a recent post that Prosper’s own rating system provides relatively accurate results. However, there is some confusion as to whether it takes returning borrowers into account. As we will show in this post, it is possible to improve upon the standard rating system, thanks to the fact that the number of previous Prosper loans is readily available.

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How good is the Prosper borrower rating?

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

For a regular investor, the single most important field in the Prosper dataset is Prosper borrower rating. This is an estimate of a borrower’s creditworthiness based on various other metrics, including employment length, number of open accounts, prior delinquencies and many others. Based on the aggregate score, the borrowers are then split into seven groups: AA, A, B and so on. Alternatively, an investor may use numerical ratings ranging from 1 to 7, with 7 corresponding to the safest, most trustworthy borrowers.

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Small businesses in the Northeast are more popular along the coast

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

Several posts we made previously focused on finding regional patterns in the employment numbers changes for U.S. regions. Unsurprisingly, the lists are dominated by industries from the larger sectors like healthcare and education.

What we would like to do next is to take a look at the distribution of the number of small businesses in the Northeast, both geographical and among industry sectors. In this series, we focus on the businesses falling into the first two columns of the County Business Profile data: establishments with fewer than 10 employees.

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Owners prefer to build small homes outside of metro areas

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

As anyone who has looked to buy a new house likely knows, there are basically four types of houses. Some are built for sale or for rent, and some are built by owners, either with help from a contractor or by themselves. The U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction provides us with this data on each surveyed home.

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The most expensive homes are getting cheaper

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

We all know that the home prices are slowly rising. The question is, what type of homes are driving the increase — cheap homes or expensive ones?

Let us split the home prices into four groups — from the top 25 percent to the bottom 25 percent by sale price. To better understand the dynamics of prices, we plot the ratio of the average price in the top three groups to the bottom one.

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Why is Florida now third among the most populous states?

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by the end of 2014, Florida passed New York to become the Nation’s third most populous state. Let’s take a more detailed look into the matter.

We’ve highlighted the four most populous states on the map below: California, Texas, Florida and New York. The fifth state by population, Illinois, is over a third smaller.

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Fast food chains growth is largest in the sector

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

As we continue our study of the business patterns in different U.S. industries, we now focus on the accommodation and food services sector. The major share of all businesses in this industry is restaurants, both full-service and limited-service. The latter, according to the North American Industry Classification System, are restaurants in which patrons order at a counter and pay before eating. Most of these are fast food chains.

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The number of attached homes has been declining since the 2007 crash

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction provides us with, among many other aspects, data on house design: whether a house is attached or detached. Attached houses are 20 percent smaller — 2000 square feet on average, compared to 2500 square feet for detached houses. The difference is even more pronounced on a scatterplot; as one may have expected, there are virtually no attached houses among large and expensive ones.

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