All posts by Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics Andrey Kamenov is a data scientist working for Advameg Inc. His background includes teaching statistics, stochastic processes and financial mathematics in Moscow State University and working for a hedge fund. His academic interests range from statistical data analysis to optimal stopping theory. Andrey also enjoys his hobbies of photography, reading and powerlifting.

Fewer and fewer people have more than one job

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

One in every 20 Americans (among those in the labor force) has more than one job. But that number alone doesn’t tell us the whole story.

The fact is, this number is decreasing: While the exact percentage was 5.6 percent in 2000, it’s now down to 4.7 percent. The decline primarily took place before 2010, and the numbers haven’t changed much since then.

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A look at the numbers: diabetes in the U.S.

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

The incidence rate for diabetes keeps rising in the U.S. Since 2001, it has increased from 6.8 to 11 percent for men and from 8.8 to 12.2 percent for women. This means that more than one in every nine adults now suffers from this condition.

Today we are going to take a look at the numbers behind this increase — what are the major factors contributing to the increase?

First, here’s the map showing the states where growth has been the most significant.

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Car brands with the youngest drivers

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

Unsurprisingly, different car brands take different approaches to crafting their images. Some try to appeal to younger audiences, focusing on factors such as driving agility and design. Others emphasize luxury or practicality — things older drivers are more likely to be looking for.

A recent study published by CarMax shows which brands have the youngest buyers. Naturally, this study only focuses on the used car market. The study also doesn’t account for the length of ownership; a man in his 50s driving a Corvette may have bought it 20 or 30 years ago.

So, which car brands are the most popular with younger drivers? Here’s what we found, based on the 2017 National Household Travel Survey. One thing to note: The average American driver is now 48.4 years old (compared to 43.4 in 2009). To make the results more informative, we capped the drivers’ age at 60.

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Over 18 million Americans live in areas with high noise levels

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

According to a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency press release dating back as far as 1974, average outdoor noise levels below 55 dB “are identified as preventing activity interference and annoyance.” At the same time, more than 18.5 million Americans live in areas where the average existing noise levels are above this threshold.

Two states, New York and Illinois, stand out on the map below. The shares of the total population of these states living in areas with high noise levels are 18.1 percent and 15.7 percent respectively. The percentage registered in California is surprisingly small for such a densely-populated and urbanized area: only 1.5 percent.

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Are Teslas the safest cars on the road?

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the brand’s fatality rate is “four times better than average.” As NHTSA has released the data for roadside fatalities in 2017, we can finally put this claim to the test, and it appears that Mr. Musk was not far from being correct. As the chart below shows, Tesla’s cars appear much safer compared to other luxury makes — in fact, there was only a single fatality in the entire year.

The main challenge is in estimating the total number of miles traveled by each make. The National Household Travel Survey can provide a rough estimate for the months when it was held. However, this estimate doesn’t take into account the changes in the fleet numbers that occur over the course of the survey. This is especially important for Jaguar, which significantly increased its U.S. sales in 2016 — but above all, it’s a deal-breaker for Tesla, which continued to demonstrate exponential growth in sales until recently.

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Here’s how Ford and GM are losing the car market

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

American car manufacturers’ shares of the U.S. car market are shrinking as more Americans than ever make the switch to foreign cars. Japanese makes are the most popular, with Korean and German manufacturers also gaining market share.

This video below shows how the popularity of different car manufacturers has changed since 1961.

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The elderly dependency rate in the U.S. keeps rising

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

The U.S. population is getting older — that’s a fact. How does the country’s aging population impact its economy? One of the most popular ways to represent the changes that come with an increase in life expectancy is the elderly dependency ratio.

As suggested by its name, the elderly dependency ratio is the ratio of the elderly population (65 years and older) to the working-age population (aged between 15 and 64).

The U.S. has long experienced a surprisingly low elderly dependency rate — it has hovered around 19 percent since the late 80s. Immigration was a major contributing factor. Another major contributor was baby boomers — this large demographic group didn’t start to leave the working age range until 2011.

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Trends in motorcycle safety in the U.S.

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

In 2017, one in every seven fatal roadside incidents in the United States involved a motorcycle; this number has remained relatively stable for the past 10 years.

A lot of progress in road safety has been made recently. However, most of the advances seem to focus primarily on cars — examples include stricter crash testing and driver assistance systems.

What has changed in motorcycle safety?

First, let’s examine the percentage of all fatal crashes that actually involve a second vehicle. Looking at this number reveals a noticeable trend: Motorcycles on their own are becoming safer, and most of the fatalities come from collisions with another vehicle.

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Should you rent out your space on Airbnb year round?

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

To anyone considering renting out their property on Airbnb, there is one extremely important question: How often will my property be rented? Sure, the daily rate may seem attractive for many, but if you don’t attract a lot of guests, the whole offer may not be near as lucrative.

On average, the occupancy rate (the percentage of time your property is rented — and makes you money) hovers at just below 50 percent in the U.S. This, of course, largely depends upon your pricing strategy as well as the property’s location.

Another important factor that may influence your decision to create a listing on Airbnb is whether you would have guests year round. In some cases, it may be a wiser choice to make your space available for just a few months each year.

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