The Prosper default rate decreased in 2014

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

We saw in a previous post that Lending Club default rates show relatively low correlation. That, of course, makes systematic risk assessment easier. At the same time, however, this means that geographic diversification doesn’t help investors decrease the risk of their portfolios.

We now take a look at the same chart for the Prosper default rate. Using the historical estimates for the monthly loan default rates for each of the seven Prosper borrower ratings, we project both the expected default rates and the error margin.

Continue reading The Prosper default rate decreased in 2014

Same-sex couples across the U.S.

Alexander Fishkov

Alexander Fishkov, Ph.D. student Computer Science

Following our post about marriage in same-sex couples, we will explore this topic a bit more. It has only been a bit over two years since June 26, 2015, when same-sex marriage became legal in all U.S. states. Many couples may not have registered their relationship yet. It is also not uncommon for opposite-sex couples to live together without registering their marriage. To aid in identifying such relationships, IPUMS USA introduced a specially-constructed variable to their version of the American Community Survey. Using answers from different questions of the survey form, they attempt to pinpoint the respondent’s potential spouse in the same household.

Continue reading Same-sex couples across the U.S.

Venture Capital: Where Will the Money Move to Next and Where Has It Been?

R.T. Young

R.T. Young, Ph.D. Business Economics

Venture capital is a world of very risky investments. In a nutshell, the venture capital world consists of a very few well-connected financial investors looking to invest in early- to late-stage startup companies and small businesses needing cash. The hope — for both the venture capitalist and the entrepreneur — is that the given startup will succeed in achieving often amazing growth rates. If the company succeeds, both the entrepreneur and the early-stage investors, which in most cases includes venture capitalists, usually make a ton of money.

Continue reading Venture Capital: Where Will the Money Move to Next and Where Has It Been?

Hottest innovation trends in New York

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

New York is home to the company that leads innovation in the United States: International Business Machines Corp. (IBM). In the last five years, the total number of patents issued to IBM is equal to the sum of the three next largest companies (Microsoft, Qualcomm and Google) combined!

Let’s see what kind of impact such an organization can have on statewide innovation trends.

Continue reading Hottest innovation trends in New York

Radio America: advertising and revenues

Pavel Prikhodko, Ph.D. Machine Learning

According to Pew Research Center, over 90 percent of Americans aged 12 and older listened AM/FM radio in the week before they were surveyed in 2014. One of the most popular broadcast formats for American radio listeners remains news/talk/information. This format attracted about 11 percent of all adult listeners in 2014. The number of all-news radio stations declined slightly in 2014, dropping to a total of 31 stations according to Nielsen Media Research data. About 160 million American internet users listened to online radio at least once per month in 2014. The forecast expects this number to grow over the next few years, reaching 176.6 million digital listeners in 2016 and 181.2 million in 2017.

Continue reading Radio America: advertising and revenues

Innovation in Silicon Valley

Andrey Kamenov

Andrey Kamenov, Ph.D. Probability and Statistics

One particular area always stands out when discussing innovation in the United States: a portion of Santa Clara County, CA better known as Silicon Valley. The valley serves as a home to several of the largest high-tech companies in the country.

It’s not about the high-tech giants, though. The number of companies which were issued at least one new patent has doubled since 2000. The number of individually issued patents also keeps growing slowly but steadily, as evidenced by the chart below.

Continue reading Innovation in Silicon Valley

Same-sex married couples in the U.S.

Alexander Fishkov

Alexander Fishkov, Ph.D. student Computer Science

On June 26, 2015, The United States Supreme Court ruled in the famous Obergefell v. Hodges case that state-level bans on same-sex marriage are unconstitutional.

This decision effectively made same-sex marriage legal in all U.S. states and Washington, D.C., as well as all U.S. territories except for American Samoa, but not on all Indian lands. Prior to the decision, many states already recognized same-sex relationships but were not obligated to recognize marriages registered in other jurisdictions.

The American Community Survey began providing data on same-sex married couples in 2013. This data, however, is limited to the householder and his or her spouse. In today’s post, we will explore the ACS data from the Census Bureau spanning years 2013-2015, focusing on same-sex married couples.

Continue reading Same-sex married couples in the U.S.

Well-being in the United States

Kristine Barseghyan

Kristine Barseghyan, Ph.D. (ABD) Social Sciences

When people perceive that their lives are going well due to good living conditions, high income, affordable healthcare, a good education system, a safe neighborhood or other well-functioning systems of the society, they a have high level of well-being. There are several approaches to measuring well-being that focus on objective indicators, such as access to education, living conditions, life expectancy and healthiness. However, most of these fail to measure what people think and feel about their lives, how they evaluate their relationships, their resilience, or overall satisfaction with life. Well-being is more than our income; it is the way we experience our life in general and whether we are positive or negative about the general state of our being.

Continue reading Well-being in the United States

The National Football League is an American treasure

Pavel Prikhodko, Ph.D. Machine Learning

Since its formation in 1920, the National Football League (NFL) has gained massive popularity in the United States. The TV viewership of the Super Bowl, the annual game that determines the champion of the NFL, amounted to 114 million people in 2015. In 2014, Super Bowl XLVIII (featuring the Seattle Seahawks against Denver Broncos) was broadcast to 111 million people.

By the way, the average cost for a 30-second-advertisement was $4 million that year. Super Bowl XLIX in 2015 held the second-highest average cost for a 30-second advertisement at $4.5 million. The game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos in February of 2016 (Super Bowl 50) holds the current record at a whopping cost of $5 million for a 30-second advertisement.

Continue reading The National Football League is an American treasure