2015 Ada County (Boise) Real Estate Summary
Posted 01-06-2016 at 11:34 AM by IdahoBroker
It is a challenge for most consumers to get good data about Idaho real estate since we are a non-disclosure state. That means you can't just go log into a website and see what a property sold for. Hence most online automated value models (AVM's) are useless in Idaho.
I just pulled up data for residential homes listed between 1/1/15 and 12/31/15 and here is my summary findings according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service (IMLS) data.
However, when you read about the market, people keep implying the market time is only about 45 days. This is only partially true! Most people only calculate sales price based on current sales and disregard the expired and cancelled listings. When a home is pre-sold (like many new homes), it shows up many times as only 1 day on the market which skews the data.
Therefore, it is important to use a different unit of measure which is "Absorption Rates". This if determined by taking the number of active listings and dividing it by sales data to determine how long it would take to absorb all the current listings. For example, since we sold and closed a total of 10,349 residential properties in 2015 in Ada County, that is an average of 23.5 a day. There are currently 2,954 homes active or pending in Ada County, so even with our low inventory due to being January, it would still take 125 days to absorb our current inventory. Then you would have to factor in the homes that will be coming online through the rest of the year and all the new homes that will be sold that don't even show up yet even though the lots are buildable!
Be careful with statistics because if you don't know the source of the data or the ability of the person doing the math, you can end up with totally worthless data that looks at face value to be valid. (Remember, figures don't lie, but liars figure - and most people can't do math).
I just pulled up data for residential homes listed between 1/1/15 and 12/31/15 and here is my summary findings according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service (IMLS) data.
- There were 14,239 residential listings in Ada County
- 17% of them were cancelled (sometimes to relist showing shorter market times)
- 3% expired without selling
- 20% are still for sale or pending waiting to close
- 60% sold
However, when you read about the market, people keep implying the market time is only about 45 days. This is only partially true! Most people only calculate sales price based on current sales and disregard the expired and cancelled listings. When a home is pre-sold (like many new homes), it shows up many times as only 1 day on the market which skews the data.
Therefore, it is important to use a different unit of measure which is "Absorption Rates". This if determined by taking the number of active listings and dividing it by sales data to determine how long it would take to absorb all the current listings. For example, since we sold and closed a total of 10,349 residential properties in 2015 in Ada County, that is an average of 23.5 a day. There are currently 2,954 homes active or pending in Ada County, so even with our low inventory due to being January, it would still take 125 days to absorb our current inventory. Then you would have to factor in the homes that will be coming online through the rest of the year and all the new homes that will be sold that don't even show up yet even though the lots are buildable!
Be careful with statistics because if you don't know the source of the data or the ability of the person doing the math, you can end up with totally worthless data that looks at face value to be valid. (Remember, figures don't lie, but liars figure - and most people can't do math).
Total Comments 0
