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A formula for excluding areas around cities from the Redoubt

Posted 01-25-2018 at 02:30 PM by TRex2
Updated 01-27-2018 at 01:29 AM by TRex2 (grammar and understandability)

There are a few reasons to exclude cities when discussing relocating to redoubt areas. The primary ones are the abundance of hostility to conservatism and Christianity, and the chaos that will arise when our civilization collapses. (And yes, it is a matter of when, not if, it will collapse, but the possible reasons it will collapse are a completely different topic.)

When it comes to cities, I don't mean tiny cities that are really nothing more than big towns. Just as a generalization, I would say any cities over 10,000 should be looked at with extreme caution. Same would apply to any location where there are over 200,000 people within 20 miles.

Working in the other direction, I have a basic formula for predicting how far out from any city chaos will extend when our civilization collapses. This chaos could be in the form of anarchy, or it could be in the form of tyranny from local enforcers who do not follow the Constitution and the Bible for their life's guidance. The exercise is fairly complex and time consuming, but if you are looking for a place to relocate to for the next ten years, you might find it worthwhile.

Step 1 of this formula is fairly simple.
Look at the population of the city and surrounding area, and draw a perimeter just large enough that the population density inside is 1000 persons per sq mile. It might be easier to start with the population of the county, and shrink the perimeter to get to that point.

Then look around the vicinity for things that would attract large numbers of people, like water or food sources, and be sure to adjust your perimeter to include those if they are near enough.

Basically, nowhere inside this first perimeter is safe after the collapse.

Step 2 of this formula is a bit more difficult.
Go around the perimeter line you just drew, and count the number of "traffic lanes" entering or exiting the area. Roads that don't have a center stripe, rail roads, and things like bike paths count as one each. So, a rail road would actually be two, one coming into one side of town, and the other leaving the other side. A freeway would generally be eight lanes.

Divide up the population among all the lanes and the spread them down the roads until you get 200 people per mile. Add more people to roads that lead to places that would attract people, and where there are significant highways or roadways intersecting, divide up the people among those "lanes."

I did this study on the Little Rock - Conway area, and found the reach was not quite to Searcy and without stretching too much would just reach Greer's Ferry Lake, probably stopping short of it. It would also reach Eastwards until it joined with the area encompassed by Memphis TN.

Now, to be sure, this formula doesn't accurately predict who will see refugees, but it does go a long ways towards predicting (in a consistent manner) who, in the first few months, will be most impacted by refugee flows. And in the months after that, how much reach a local strongman "government" may have. Inside this second area, there will a lot of places where there will be little problem, but along any primary roadway, problems should be expected.
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