Where has all the bad news gone....
Posted 06-24-2009 at 07:44 AM by jeffvivian
Recently I read an article from RISMEDIA tilted "Have we hit bottom - 10 Factors to Consider" and in this article they covered the following 10 factors signaling a bottoming of the real estae market.
1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.
2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.
3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average, so a dozen or more people attending an open house means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.
4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.
5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.
6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.
7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.
8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.
9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.
10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.
After reading this article....the comical aspect of this article is that although many statistics are showing a bottoming, the one aspect that indicates we have moved passed the bottoming is that EVERYONE STOPPED TALKING ABOUT IT. Yeah, that's right the doom and gloom bubble boys have sinced receeded back to their underworld or are now focusing the small rise in interest rates as a deterent for home ownership.
As a Real Estate Professional, the horizon is starting to line itself with the stories of should-of, would-of, could-of for this market. Opporutnities for both first time home buyers and homeowners who want to "move-up" abound in the current market.
By no means should anybody take this as a horn sounding that the worst is offically behind us, because we still need to find higher gorund on jobs and consumer confidence. But reading the above article just led me to wonder where had all the Bad News Delivery Boys gone to....Florida, maybe?
1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.
2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.
3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average, so a dozen or more people attending an open house means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.
4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.
5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.
6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.
7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.
8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.
9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.
10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.
After reading this article....the comical aspect of this article is that although many statistics are showing a bottoming, the one aspect that indicates we have moved passed the bottoming is that EVERYONE STOPPED TALKING ABOUT IT. Yeah, that's right the doom and gloom bubble boys have sinced receeded back to their underworld or are now focusing the small rise in interest rates as a deterent for home ownership.
As a Real Estate Professional, the horizon is starting to line itself with the stories of should-of, would-of, could-of for this market. Opporutnities for both first time home buyers and homeowners who want to "move-up" abound in the current market.
By no means should anybody take this as a horn sounding that the worst is offically behind us, because we still need to find higher gorund on jobs and consumer confidence. But reading the above article just led me to wonder where had all the Bad News Delivery Boys gone to....Florida, maybe?
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