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Here are a couple of charts showing the short term behavior of the Las Vegas REO market.
The first shows the Inventory of available REO single family residences listed in the MLS and the number sold in the last 30 days. Note that this statistic requires a week or ten days to fully stablize. Basically the sales trickle in over a period of time rather than appearing on day one.
The message is obvious. The REO listings are approaching and likely at one month of sales and still going down strongly. Those negative on a recovery are projecting a slug of foreclosures. That would likely manifest itself as a leveling or even increase in the inventory level.
Maintenance of present trends is likely not possible. The inventory is at or close to a month. If it continues the present trend we will soon be to weeks of inventory. There is likely some unsaleable residue in this inventory. So we are within a month or two of a throttled REO sales scenario. They are still coming on the market but at well less than the market demand.
Should be an interesting time.
Let us also look at pricing during this period...
This is a 30 day median and average for the Single Family REOs sold in Las Vegas. The trend is still down though with less slope than earlier periods. Over time we should see if prices stabilize or increase as the inventory drops.
These charts will be updated at least a couple of times a week so we can all watch this unfold.
What is going to happen? Got me...but it should be interesting.
The first shows the Inventory of available REO single family residences listed in the MLS and the number sold in the last 30 days. Note that this statistic requires a week or ten days to fully stablize. Basically the sales trickle in over a period of time rather than appearing on day one.
The message is obvious. The REO listings are approaching and likely at one month of sales and still going down strongly. Those negative on a recovery are projecting a slug of foreclosures. That would likely manifest itself as a leveling or even increase in the inventory level.
Maintenance of present trends is likely not possible. The inventory is at or close to a month. If it continues the present trend we will soon be to weeks of inventory. There is likely some unsaleable residue in this inventory. So we are within a month or two of a throttled REO sales scenario. They are still coming on the market but at well less than the market demand.
Should be an interesting time.
Let us also look at pricing during this period...
This is a 30 day median and average for the Single Family REOs sold in Las Vegas. The trend is still down though with less slope than earlier periods. Over time we should see if prices stabilize or increase as the inventory drops.
These charts will be updated at least a couple of times a week so we can all watch this unfold.
What is going to happen? Got me...but it should be interesting.
Total Comments 8
Comments
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Nice job, Jim!Posted 05-16-2009 at 04:04 PM by Fastrudy
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Updated
Made the first update and it all worked. Pretty well meaningless new data but it is partially automated so it only takes a few minutes.Posted 05-16-2009 at 05:27 PM by olecapt 
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Updated 5/18Posted 05-19-2009 at 11:30 AM by olecapt
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like to talk with you
Can you please give me your phone number (Private message) so that I can call you. I have some questions and it is obvious you are clear on what the market is doing.
THanks,
RichardPosted 05-19-2009 at 07:31 PM by gtbguy
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How's the market on the low end luxury condos? Platinum, Soho, Newport etc there are several in the $100-150k range. Do you think demand will rise or fall for them?Posted 05-19-2009 at 09:48 PM by ocean2026
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I kinda think sales will be pretty decent throughout the summer and early fall. Summer season is the time to buy homes. After that, I think sales of REOs will slow down and prices will dip a bit further. I think Vegas will see another 10% gradual decrease in values (from what it is today- 5/19/09) and that will be it. I don't see that 10% until next year though.Posted 05-19-2009 at 10:10 PM by gtbguy
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The High Rises
In general Soho, Newport, Streamline etc appear disastrous to any intial purchaser. I am really not sure how far they will fall.
I would also urge some caution. It is not clear that these places are economically stable. My concern is that you can end up with enough units not paying their assessment that it becomes impossible to keep the place running. These are not small assessments...$400 a month or more.
I have suggested we might even end up with some of these things selling for nothing. Farfetched of course but not impossible. You got a $500 buck a month HOA and people value the utility at $100,000...it is worth effectively nothing.
I don't follow the heavier condos closely though there have been some very low REOs in Turnberry...And the MGM Turnberry borders on a disaster. Those little condo hotel units are a long way from being stable.Posted 05-21-2009 at 12:01 AM by olecapt
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Whats your assessment after the past three months?Posted 08-22-2009 at 01:53 PM by Swigchow
