Runner at 2nd, 2 out RE = .344
Runners at 1st and 2nd, 2 out RE = .466
Nobody on, nobody out RE = .555
Nobody on, 1 out RE = .297
Based on 3 year averages (wRC+)
Punto 90
Carp .54
Furcal 102
Jay 112
Pujols 165
Multiplying the RE by the RE of the hiters
So, RE pitching to Punto = (.344*.9) = .31
The RE walking Carp = (.466*.054) = .003
The RE with Carp leading off = .396 (average of Carp, Furcal, and Jay)
The RE with Furcal leading off = .700 (average of Furcal, Jay and Pujols)
Pitching to Punto and having Carp leadoff = .31 + .396 = .706
Pitching to Carpenter and having Furcal leadoff = .003 + .700 = .703
The move is probably pretty much a wash
Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88
If they want their number two hitter to bunt all the time, why don't they put the pitcher in the number two spot?
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Agreed
