View Single Post
 
Old 10-19-2011, 08:52 PM
filihok
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,296 posts, read 6,876,722 times
Reputation: 6517
Runner at 2nd, 2 out RE = .344
Runners at 1st and 2nd, 2 out RE = .466

Nobody on, nobody out RE = .555
Nobody on, 1 out RE = .297

Based on 3 year averages (wRC+)
Punto 90
Carp .54
Furcal 102
Jay 112
Pujols 165

Multiplying the RE by the RE of the hiters

So, RE pitching to Punto = (.344*.9) = .31
The RE walking Carp = (.466*.054) = .003

The RE with Carp leading off = .396 (average of Carp, Furcal, and Jay)
The RE with Furcal leading off = .700 (average of Furcal, Jay and Pujols)

Pitching to Punto and having Carp leadoff = .31 + .396 = .706
Pitching to Carpenter and having Furcal leadoff = .003 + .700 = .703

The move is probably pretty much a wash

Sabremetrics 101: Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002


Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
If they want their number two hitter to bunt all the time, why don't they put the pitcher in the number two spot?
Agreed
Reply With Quote

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:28 PM.

2005-2014, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Top