AGAIN. LOL. 90s are back in the picture for CT! In short... Evening and Overnight models trended warmer. See? And someone wants to keep track of forecast accuracy? It's about the models and atmospheric changes.. Keep track of that instead.
Read the discussion below from NWS NY. Some good learning info in there.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/nammosmap.php
GFS has 95 as the max for northern CT. Might be too high. Who knows!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
MODELS TRENDING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MODERATING
BY TUE INTO THE
LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND 85 TO 90 NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS. THUS...
A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE
LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE...
DELAYING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU.
OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OF
LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THE HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING AND STALL TO THE
SOUTH/WEST THEREAFTER
ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 IN URBAN NE NJ AND NYC...HEAT INDEX VALUES ON WED LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS AND NOT RISE ABOVE 95.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/products/text.shtml