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Hello! I am considering moving to Tuscaloosa in the near future, and was wondering about the safety there, the schools, and if there are any weather issues to worry about. I am a 65 year old widow, with custody of my 10 year old granddaughter, and want a quiet, safe area for us, and a middle school that is the best you have to offer! Actually, any and all information you can give me about your city would be appreciated! Thank you kindly!
Tuscaloosa is on a known tornado path that extends up to Birmingham. IIRC, the area southeast of the city is less likely to have tornado problems.
100 percent fiction.
Now to the OP: I don't think very highly of Tuscaloosa because crime is relatively high, the schools aren't very good, and it doesn't seem like a very nice place to raise a family.
But, the tornado thing is completely overblown. Tornado paths are tiny compared to states. It would take thousands of years of data to know if certain areas are more likely to be hit by tornadoes (on a micro scale; obviously Alabama is more likely to be hit than Nevada... but there is no scientific evidence to indicate any given point in Tuscaloosa is any more likely to be hit by a tornado than some other given point in, say, Demopolis, or Gardendale, or Jasper).
Tuscaloosa has been effected by several tornadoes in the last couple decades while Hoover has not had any significant tornadoes in that timeframe. However, Hoover could get hit by three violent tornadoes in the next 5 years while Tuscaloosa may not see another for 50 years. Nobody really knows.
Now to the OP: I don't think very highly of Tuscaloosa because crime is relatively high, the schools aren't very good, and it doesn't seem like a very nice place to raise a family.
But, the tornado thing is completely overblown. Tornado paths are tiny compared to states. It would take thousands of years of data to know if certain areas are more likely to be hit by tornadoes (on a micro scale; obviously Alabama is more likely to be hit than Nevada... but there is no scientific evidence to indicate any given point in Tuscaloosa is any more likely to be hit by a tornado than some other given point in, say, Demopolis, or Gardendale, or Jasper).
Tuscaloosa has been effected by several tornadoes in the last couple decades while Hoover has not had any significant tornadoes in that timeframe. However, Hoover could get hit by three violent tornadoes in the next 5 years while Tuscaloosa may not see another for 50 years. Nobody really knows.
Not 100% fiction. Meteorologists are cagey in that they say that they don't have data that would indicate some areas are more tornado prone than others, yet the tornado maps don't lie. What you are attempting to do is assign a 100% random attribution to a phenomenon that most definitely HAS distinct causal factors. You might as well claim that your chances of being hit by a drunk driver are exactly the same if you are driving at 8am on a rural road or driving at closing time by a large bar on a Friday night.
There are elements of tornado formation that are macro scale in nature. There are also factors that are much more localized. Where we are at a loss is gathering enough data points to indicate WHAT the salient data is and what is chaff. The oldsters tending to think that the combination of water and plowed fields were more likely to encourage tornadoes in an otherwise equal environment. Perhaps the combination of excess heat from the dark earth and moisture from those fields and surrounding bodies of water are a factor. We can't say for certain, but in science we don't deny experiential evidence simply because we don't have a current theory to explain it. (Actually, some of the more stupid scientists do deny experiential evidence, like doctors refusing to link bacteria to stomach ulcers. Ultimately, those scientists end up looking like the fools they are.)
There are a few known tornado paths and heavy storm paths in the state. Roughly from Decatur to Huntsville, the area around Cullman, the corridor from southwest of T town to B'ham, and from southwest of Montgomery leading towards it. Are there thousands of data points? Of course not. Those areas would be windswept and abandoned if there was enough data to be definitive. That in no way denies that tornadoes occur elsewhere, it merely notes that chances of being affected by one are greater in those areas.
What I am waiting for is the insurance companies to assign risk areas for this type of windstorm, just as they did with hurricanes in Florida. That will put debates like this to rest.
As I said... there is no evidence to suggest those areas you mentioned are "favored" tornado paths. Just because they have been a hot spot for a couple of decades proves nothing. It is like arguing that the number 19 is more likely to hit on the roulette wheel than 28 because it has hit three times in the last 15 spins while 28 hasn't hit in 100 spins. Come back after 25,000 spins and see what the distribution looks like. If I flip a coin six times and get heads six times, the odds of the 7th flip being heads are still just 50-50.
Using anecdotal evidence to suggest to people that living in Tuscaloosa is more dangerous than living in Jasper is absurd. Calling Tuscaloosa favored is absurd. Downtown Tuscaloosa has not been struck by a violent tornado in more than 100 years. The area just north of downtown Tuscaloosa hasn't been struck since 1932.
Insurance companies aren't going to charge out the nose for living in places like Tuscaloosa because they have real statisticians working for the companies and realize there is no science behind Tuscaloosa being a danger area. Now of course just because we haven't figured out a scientific link doesn't mean one does not exist... but we haven't figured it out and there is no evidence in the sample we have to suggest so.
Spreading these "favored tornado path" myths is ridiculous.
"Using anecdotal evidence to suggest to people that living in Tuscaloosa is more dangerous than living in Jasper is absurd. Calling Tuscaloosa favored is absurd. Downtown Tuscaloosa has not been struck by a violent tornado in more than 100 years. The area just north of downtown Tuscaloosa hasn't been struck since 1932."
By the way, I have an open ended bet on that you can get in on. I say that within 10 years there will be another tornado of EF2 or greater going from the general Decatur area towards Huntsville. I'll give you five bucks if it doesn't happen.
Hello! I am considering moving to Tuscaloosa in the near future, and was wondering about the safety there, the schools, and if there are any weather issues to worry about. I am a 65 year old widow, with custody of my 10 year old granddaughter, and want a quiet, safe area for us, and a middle school that is the best you have to offer! Actually, any and all information you can give me about your city would be appreciated! Thank you kindly!
Err - I don't know that a discussion about tornados is helpful to the OP facing the dilemma she described.
I actually don't know anything about AL, have never been there. I saw scenes from Alabama once in a movie, "LIONESS", which depicted the first platoon of women to be inducted into the Iraq war. One of the protagonists was from AL, and the movie showed her family homestead. A bunch of buildings with (as I recall) three of the family adults living there. Right on the shore of a river. It looked beautiful! But it was not Tuscaloosa.
That said, I do not have first hand advice about Tuscaloosa per se.
Is there a reason for being Tuscaloosa-bound? Do you own property there that would make it inexpensive living? I am sorry to say that these days, your kids turn out the way that their peer group leads them. Unless your granddaughter is very hard-headed and VERY ambitious, and has the courage to write off some low-performing high school which is the best the area has to offer, she will (like most other kids) just gravitate to the middle of her peer group. If her peer group thinks it is "cool" to be ignorant and arrogant, then that is how she will turn out, to her long term detriment.
I was in a situation growing up that I found intolerable. I would hear stories about how (some family acquaintance) had bashed his wife's head through plate glass, for example, because he had a flash of anger at how she was (rightfully, IMHO) protesting some previous action. Alcohol was frequently a factor in these instances. Therefore I became very thoughtful, and very analytical from age 8. I determined that I would NEVER be at the financial mercy of any man who was that way inclined. Of course, I did not know how to pick them very well - I'd had no experience in learning how productive marriages worked.
So I did everything the opposite of what I saw around me. I got straight As (and was reviled by my peer group). I did not drink. I did not aspire to be cool. I did not aspire to be a cheerleader. I strove to be "neat and well-groomed" instead of "fashionable" ( - good thing, too: my mom had NO money to get the latest fad clothing.) I aspired to get straight As and academic scholarships. Instead of cheerleading from the sidelines, I decided I'd play some sport first hand. I chose field hockey, because I was that aggressive.
It turns out that high school is a very brief period in one's life. The big step is getting into an Ivy League, Seven Sisters or Little Ivy (e.g., Williams - Amherst) college. That also is a bit alienating, because one does not understand the nuances of upper middle class behavior. One does learn them at a good school.
Getting into a really good college (one with a huge endowment to pay your freight) depends on your grades and your PSAT scores. PSATs are the first of the standardized tests, they are VERY early - a full year before the SATs. The PSAT scores determine whether or not you are designated a National Merit Scholar. The good colleges send recruiting letters to kids who are National Merit Scholars, particularly if they are from Tuscaloosa - since they strive to have a more-or-less geographically diverse student body.
Regardless of the peer group you can provide, if your grand-daughter is a National Merit Scholar, has consistent As from middle school onward, and is GOOD at a sport, she will be able to write her own ticket from the recruiting letters she gets in the fall of her junior year in high school. The Ivies etc. will welcome her. Because they have spectacular endowments, they can afford to give her a full ride (paid tuition, room and board - NO student loans). The cost to her: she will be reviled by her High School peers, many of whom will go on to lives of crime. I know mine did - even the guy who asked me to the senior prom (on a dare, I will say - I accepted as a sort of experiment in anthropology and exercise in good manners). The way for her to gain escape velocity into independence and financial well being is to understand, and internalize the fact that there are no shortcuts. It's a lot of work, and it can be done.
So: if she has the drive, aggression and strength to ignore her peers when they conflict with her program (getting out - getting academic full ride - getting into a profession where eventually she will make $200K a year on her own without relying on a dysfunctional man) - then there is nothing in the Tuscaloosa environment to worry about. If she does not, and is, instead, a follower, then Tuscaloosa is not the place for you and your grandchild - assuming you want better for her than what you see in her peers. You have to "buy" a peer group, because followers will stay right smack dab in the middle of their peer groups.
If she has that fire in her belly, how does she leverage it over the long haul from grade school through college? She needs to make up her own mind that she will make good. She needs guidance from you about how to be strong in her convictions, and unswayed by peer pressure. And she has to have a fire in her belly to make good. Basically, all of the decisions she will be faced with, she has to decide ahead of time so that she knows before she is in the situation of temptation how she must respond. And really, really, internalize it. In this, you will be a great help.
As for me, I got out of that environment using precisely that plan - and am living in a different world now. There is some personal cost - crossing that cultural divide, one has to fundamentally reject one's roots. You must be strong as well. My mother certainly was.
This is what people do who have the 500 year view. Who are thinking about setting up their great-great-great-great- grandchildren for survival. It is going to get much worse before it gets better. But one person has to take it on the chin, while disengaging from the pattern of dysfunction, so that their progeny can thrive in this new normal.
Tourian, just go away. You are spreading falsehoods and I'm growing tired of trying to clean up your mess.
Also, still laughing about you using the will of God in your argument. That probably did more convincing of the OP that you don't know what you are talking about than any amount of data I could possibly post.
Why don't you just post some evidence that shows Tuscaloosa is more likely to get struck by tornadoes than other nearby areas. Oh, that's right. You can't, because no such evidence exists.
Just because you "feel like" Tuscaloosa is more prone to tornadoes doesn't make it any more true than when other people come here and say they "feel like" downtown Birmingham is unsafe. In fact, both of those statements probably come from the same area of logical fallacyville... where anecdotal evidence and personal experience trump data and facts.
Cool. If someone is taking a sugar pill and they feel like it has cured their illness, I'm not going to tell them to stop. And if you feel like your town is safer than Huntsville or Tuscaloosa relative to tornadoes, then believe what you wish. It doesn't make you right.
This study didn't deal specifically with extremely location specific analysis of tornadoes. If it did, the amount of data needed to be useful would be orders of magnitude greater.
You really don't understand the scientific method, do you? Not only have placebos (sugar pills) been PROVEN effective, research is showing that the more expensive the sugar pill the more effective it is! If you don't believe me, look it up. While you are at it, look up the three door game show puzzle. It'll give you another windmill to tilt at.
And, by the way - if you want to claim that what I believe doesn't make me right, IF you were thinking scientifically the scientific admission would be that it doesn't make me wrong either. By your own metrics, you don't have enough data points to be able to make that determination.
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