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Old 10-10-2014, 10:33 AM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
16,146 posts, read 27,212,818 times
Reputation: 11818

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
Oil production in Alaska has been declining longer than it was ever increasing. Alaska oil production began increasing in 1977 with the completion of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and the oil terminal in Valdez. Oil production continued to increase for 12 years, until 1989. Since 1989 oil production has been declining. The oil in the pipeline is now less that half what it once was 25 years ago. If oil production continues to decline at its current rate, there may be about 15 years left in the life of the pipeline.

I recall them talking about implementing a State income tax back in the 1990s, when Knowles was Governor. Of course that was also when the State was spending in excess of $20,000 for every man, woman, and child in Alaska. Now, according to the enacted FY 2015 budget, the State is spending $14,477.94 for every man, woman, and child in Alaska.

While that is certainly an improvement, it is in no way sustainable by Alaskan citizens without those oil royalties.
And with the restrictions on mining and oil production by the Federal Government, I have no idea how Alaska will be able to survive.
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:53 AM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,852 posts, read 19,486,349 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK View Post
And with the restrictions on mining and oil production by the Federal Government, I have no idea how Alaska will be able to survive.
We have a war for energy going on in this country between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats want to shut everything down and return us back to the stone-age, eliminating all energy production everywhere, except for what they deem to be "politically correct."

Considering the way this country has been heading since 1992, it would appear that Democrats are winning. The standard of living has already dropped significantly for everyone in the last 20 years. In another 20 years I fully expect that we will be envying third-world hell-holes.
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Old 10-10-2014, 11:24 AM
 
310 posts, read 444,726 times
Reputation: 476
AK is an extraction economy, there's no arguing otherwise. That in itself is very bad news because extraction is inherently finite.

Global warming will benefit the state in the short term that people who live today care about. Warmer temperatures across the state means that extraction will become less expensive and thus more economically viable. We already see this and it was the impetus for the "road to resources" push. There's a road being built to the Ambler mining district which will spur additional mining development up there and make current operations more profitable.

However, extraction isn't a big job creator. Because of technology and automation one simply doesn't need a lot of people to churn through a whole lot of material.

The other global warming benefit is that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free year-round within our lifetime. This is HUGE because it will allow for a northern passage shipping route between Asia and Europe. This is a huge boon not just for the distance savings but because there's no longer a limit on the vessel size. Today many new vessels used for Asia-Europe routes are specifically designed to fit into the Panama Canal with a margin of just a few inches. The northern passage will not have this limitation and large ships, including US aircraft carriers, will be able to easily make the trip from the Atlantic to the Pacific and back.

Already shipping volume through the Bering Straight has increased by a factor of four over the last ten years. There's a source for that somewhere. It's mainly Russian shipping, but still. Right now the US has essentially zero meaningful federal installations above the Arctic Circle to protect our interests in the Arctic. The Coast Guard has a seasonal presence in Barrow and that's about it.

There will be some construction activity to bring a permanent Coast Guard, USCIS, DHS, etc., presence to the North Slope to protect our commercial and territorial interests. There are plans for a deep water port on the North Slope. All of that will happen in due time, but again, very few people will actually be permanently employed.

AK will survive by being subsidized by the federal government via military spending and allocation of other taxpayer dollars into essentially state bailout funds. This is quite hilarious if you think about it. Depending on which stats you apply Alaska currently receives close to two federal dollars for every dollar we put into the federal budget.

Alaska is a welfare state and every single Alaskan is sucking on the federal government's teat.

Yet most Alaskans are vehemently opposed to government spending. LOLOLOL
This state wouldn't exist if it weren't propped up by taxpayer dollars from other states to the tune of 3 billion dollars a year.
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Old 10-10-2014, 09:24 PM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
16,146 posts, read 27,212,818 times
Reputation: 11818
Quote:
Originally Posted by RarelyRelocating View Post
AK is an extraction economy, there's no arguing otherwise. That in itself is very bad news because extraction is inherently finite.
It may be finite, but nobody knows how far into the future oil extraction will stop once we start. Besides, oil is not the only natural resource in Alaska. We have one of the cleanest types of coal in the world. I believe Korea's is cleaner. Then we have some of the largest gold mines in the US, plus vast amounts of copper, bauxite, and even diamonds
Global warming will benefit the state in the short term that people who live today care about. Warmer temperatures across the state means that extraction will become less expensive and thus more economically viable. We already see this and it was the impetus for the "road to resources" push. There's a road being built to the Ambler mining district which will spur additional mining development up there and make current operations more profitable.
Global warming would help Alaska and also open maritime routes. The problem is that we haven't had much global warming for several decades already. In fact, more than likely there is a global cooling taking place

However, extraction isn't a big job creator. Because of technology and automation one simply doesn't need a lot of people to churn through a whole lot of material.

Extraction is a big job creator in Alaska, because such does not take place in Anchorage, Fairbanks, or Juneau, but in Prudoe. All the people who work for Alyaska or just the pipeline are proof of the huge job market. In top of that, truck drivers and the rest are the result of such type of work. Most of the work available in Alaska is because of the oil industry, even our university.

The other global warming benefit is that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free year-round within our lifetime. This is HUGE because it will allow for a northern passage shipping route between Asia and Europe. This is a huge boon not just for the distance savings but because there's no longer a limit on the vessel size. Today many new vessels used for Asia-Europe routes are specifically designed to fit into the Panama Canal with a margin of just a few inches. The northern passage will not have this limitation and large ships, including US aircraft carriers, will be able to easily make the trip from the Atlantic to the Pacific and back.

Already shipping volume through the Bering Straight has increased by a factor of four over the last ten years. There's a source for that somewhere. It's mainly Russian shipping, but still. Right now the US has essentially zero meaningful federal installations above the Arctic Circle to protect our interests in the Arctic. The Coast Guard has a seasonal presence in Barrow and that's about it.

There will be some construction activity to bring a permanent Coast Guard, USCIS, DHS, etc., presence to the North Slope to protect our commercial and territorial interests. There are plans for a deep water port on the North Slope. All of that will happen in due time, but again, very few people will actually be permanently employed.

AK will survive by being subsidized by the federal government via military spending and allocation of other taxpayer dollars into essentially state bailout funds. This is quite hilarious if you think about it. Depending on which stats you apply Alaska currently receives close to two federal dollars for every dollar we put into the federal budget.

Alaska is a welfare state and every single Alaskan is sucking on the federal government's teat.

Yet most Alaskans are vehemently opposed to government spending. LOLOLOL
This state wouldn't exist if it weren't propped up by taxpayer dollars from other states to the tune of 3 billion dollars a year.
Perhaps you should become educated about the Alaska's economy and why the Federal Government spends so much in Alaska, so for your benefit here it goes:

a. Most of Alaska is Federal Government. Only a small portion of Alaska belongs to the State of Alaska, and the rest belongs to the AK Native peoples.

b. What the Federal Government is primarily supporting are military installations, military personnel, and a myriad of Federal Government agencies. In other words, the Federal Government invests primarily in itself.

c. Alaska is not allowed to extract oil offshore, nor on ANWAR, nor anywhere else other than Prudoe and a few other places. Alaska can't just go out there to mine or extract oil just because it wants to. The Government dictates that. In fact, the Federal Government won't even allow for the construction of a dirt road so that the residents of this isolated village can drive to a tiny airport in case of a life-threatening emergency.
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Old 10-10-2014, 09:45 PM
 
4,472 posts, read 5,092,313 times
Reputation: 2007
Maybe this panic is what is needed to get real estate prices back down to reality. I should probably start checking the MLS over the next year more often.
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Old 10-10-2014, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
16,146 posts, read 27,212,818 times
Reputation: 11818
Quote:
Originally Posted by highlife2 View Post
Maybe this panic is what is needed to get real estate prices back down to reality. I should probably start checking the MLS over the next year more often.
Well, I remember when we had the last economic bust in the early '80s. Back then there were scores of people leaving Alaska, and a lot of them abandoned their homes since they could not afford paying the bank mortgages. I remember seen numerous homes in North Pole that had been half-constructed and then abandoned.

I am not saying that it will happen again, but anything is possible since the Alaska's economy has always been what is called "boom and bust." The problem at the moment is that the Democrat administrations have imposed very strong anti-coal mining and oil production rules, and Alaska depends on these resources to survive. We just don't have agriculture, tourism is pretty much to the benefit of big corporations from the lower-48, and so fishing. All we have is mining, and oil.

That said, I am not a Democrat nor a Republican, and see both as being the cause of the national and local problems we are experiencing these days.
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:04 PM
 
4,472 posts, read 5,092,313 times
Reputation: 2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK View Post
Well, I remember when we had the last economic bust in the early '80s. Back then there were scores of people leaving Alaska, and a lot of them abandoned their homes since they could not afford paying the bank mortgages. I remember seen numerous homes in North Pole that had been half-constructed and then abandoned.

I am not saying that it will happen again, but anything is possible since the Alaska's economy has always been what is called "boom and bust." The problem at the moment is that the Democrat administrations have imposed very strong anti-coal mining and oil production rules, and Alaska depends on these resources to survive. We just don't have agriculture, tourism is pretty much to the benefit of big corporations from the lower-48, and so fishing. All we have is mining, and oil.

That said, I am not a Democrat nor a Republican, and see both as being the cause of the national and local problems we are experiencing these days.
This would be a good time to just save and wait. I don't want to miss the buying opportunity of a life time.
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:23 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,852 posts, read 19,486,349 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK View Post
Perhaps you should become educated about the Alaska's economy and why the Federal Government spends so much in Alaska, so for your benefit here it goes:

a. Most of Alaska is Federal Government. Only a small portion of Alaska belongs to the State of Alaska, and the rest belongs to the AK Native peoples.

b. What the Federal Government is primarily supporting are military installations, military personnel, and a myriad of Federal Government agencies. In other words, the Federal Government invests primarily in itself.

c. Alaska is not allowed to extract oil offshore, nor on ANWAR, nor anywhere else other than Prudoe and a few other places. Alaska can't just go out there to mine or extract oil just because it wants to. The Government dictates that. In fact, the Federal Government won't even allow for the construction of a dirt road so that the residents of this isolated village can drive to a tiny airport in case of a life-threatening emergency.
You forgot that Alaska is also the world's largest producer of lead and zinc.

I stopped responding to such ignorant posts, because they are not interested in the truth, only their ideology matters.

Nevertheless, well said.
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:30 PM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
16,146 posts, read 27,212,818 times
Reputation: 11818
Quote:
Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
You forgot that Alaska is also the world's largest producer of lead and zinc.

I stopped responding to such ignorant posts, because they are not interested in the truth, only their ideology matters.

Nevertheless, well said.
A lot of people have no idea why the Federal Government spends so much money on police, highway funds, and the rest. They don't realize that the military are driving on those roads daily, flying all over Alaska, and having military training (including multinational training) on numerous and huge chunks of land).

Yes. We probably have just about any mineral we can think of. But Alaska just can't get to them just because it wants to. The Federal Government won't allow it.
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Wasilla, Alaska
17,852 posts, read 19,486,349 times
Reputation: 6462
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK View Post
Well, I remember when we had the last economic bust in the early '80s. Back then there were scores of people leaving Alaska, and a lot of them abandoned their homes since they could not afford paying the bank mortgages. I remember seen numerous homes in North Pole that had been half-constructed and then abandoned.

I am not saying that it will happen again, but anything is possible since the Alaska's economy has always been what is called "boom and bust." The problem at the moment is that the Democrat administrations have imposed very strong anti-coal mining and oil production rules, and Alaska depends on these resources to survive. We just don't have agriculture, tourism is pretty much to the benefit of big corporations from the lower-48, and so fishing. All we have is mining, and oil.

That said, I am not a Democrat nor a Republican, and see both as being the cause of the national and local problems we are experiencing these days.
I would argue that one boom and one bust does not make a trend, and therefore not applicable. Thankfully, I arrived after the late-1980s economic recession in Alaska. The economy was picking up again when I arrived, and getting work with Alyeska, BP, or ARCO (now ConocoPhillips) was easy. Now, getting work with the oil industry is not so easy because jobs are less plentiful.

Agriculture in Alaska is beginning to boom. We are growing more, and different kinds of crops in Alaska than we ever have before. Granted, it is not nearly enough to make Alaska self-sustaining, but agriculture in Alaska is definitely growing.
"Alaska is projected to gain 36,113 jobs between 2012 and 2022 for a growth rate of 10.8 percent. The health care and social assistance sector will grow the most at a projected 25 percent, followed closely by mining - minus oil and gas - at 24.8 percent." --- Alaska Economic Trends - 10 Year Forecast: Industries & Occupations (October 2014) [PDF]
The report also includes a projected decrease in federal jobs by 9%, which I found interesting. Are they anticipating additional base closures?

I completely agree with you about the Democrats, and Alaska is not alone. Every energy-producing State has been hit hard by the Democrats. All the more reason to ensure they are never in a position of power where they can do more harm to the nation.
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