Is AK likely the new retirement state? (Fairbanks, Ketchikan: condo, house)

[DannyL]

Originally Posted by stiffnecked

I've seen quite a few retirees moving into southeast. Moderate climate.

that's true, but the retirees who move here bring their own incomes. Juneau is very-senior citizen friendly, lots of services for free for 64 and older. (i.e. city bus fare is free, some basic health services are free. I'll try to find some others.)

[icarian]

User/Cobalt,

That report is statistically misleading imho. While our state may have some of the highest increases percentage wise, that does not equate to real numbers. The "33% gain from 2000 to 2004" especially caught my eye. That is a 33% gain of senior citizens in the state with easily the smallest population. That 33% gain undoubtedly equals a rather small number if you don't use percentages...what, we have 600 to 700k in TOTAL population. Another state's 12% increase over the same period most likely equals several hundred thousand in and of itself.

More seniors might be venturing north than before...but we aren't their new mecca aka Florida. Thank God.

[Aerobars]

Originally Posted by User 2

Where did you get that information?

I'd like to see that study, I don't think it's current.

US Census data, 2006 estimates. In Alaska 6.8% of the population is 65+. That is far and away the lowest nationally (next closest state is 8.8%). In Florida 16.8% of the population is 65+. The national average is 12.4%.

State and County QuickFacts

[bongo]

Thank you Aerobars! I too just read the same stats on the census bureau site. Alaska has the lowest percentage of seniors, but darn it! Our senior population IS growing! Growing from lowest to still lowest!

We are about- to -become- retired Alaskans. My husband and I ski daily out our back door in the winter, wishing for more snow. I am an avid backpacker and Alaska is of course a backpacker's dream.We spend a lot of the summer backpacking, hiking and salmon fishing. We love living here.

However, when we retire in 2 years, we will move outside. With the price of gas rising rapidly, what will that do to our already high cost of living index? our commodities have to be shipped to Alaska utilizing that fuel.

Luckily, we are very healthy. However, it has just been in the past 10 years that we have seen highly specialized medical services coming to town. Many people fly outside for cutting-edge medical care, operations, and procedures.

Visiting family members and friends outside entail flights.

Other than the below zero weather and snow, another deterrent to retirement in Alaska is ice... black ice, white ice, sidewalk ice, driving on ice, you name it. And where there is not ice there is deep snow on sidewalks whereby people walk in the streets. I personally solve the problem by skate skiing!

Hey but we have more coffee kiosks per capita, eat more spam per capita than any state but Hawaii, and are the winners for uses for duct tape!

[User 2]

Originally Posted by icarian

User/Cobalt,

That report is statistically misleading imho. While our state may have some of the highest increases percentage wise, that does not equate to real numbers. The "33% gain from 2000 to 2004" especially caught my eye. That is a 33% gain of senior citizens in the state with easily the smallest population. That 33% gain undoubtedly equals a rather small number if you don't use percentages...what, we have 600 to 700k in TOTAL population. Another state's 12% increase over the same period most likely equals several hundred thousand in and of itself.

More seniors might be venturing north than before...but we aren't their new mecca aka Florida. Thank God.

I'd disagree that the numbers are statistically misleading,

while you are talking total numbers, it's not misleading to speak of percentages of our population.

As the percentage of whatever total changes, those totals will reflect what those component percentages reveal.

Our state's population is aging, and the rate at which it is aging is quite a bit more rapid than the same change in other areas.

Just because our total population is relatively small, doesn't mean that the impacts will be any less relative to the small base we have to support those changes.
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[User 2]

Originally Posted by Aerobars

US Census data, 2006 estimates. In Alaska 6.8% of the population is 65+. That is far and away the lowest nationally (next closest state is 8.8%). In Florida 16.8% of the population is 65+. The national average is 12.4%.

State and County QuickFacts

Quick 'facts'..... Estimates..... What is offered as 'fact' is estimate.

(please note and click on the buttons marked ' i ' in a circle to the left of each 'estimate' line.)


If you do this, and you look into the methodology they use, posted on the same site, (what they tell you about their data for age data for states}, you will find within the following pages, ...(available here):

Age Data

.....these qualifiers about their age data 'estimates'.


This quote is only a small part of all the descriptive material within the link above.....

....but there are some pertinent qualifiers noted in this quote.

National Level - age data are available from the following sources:

Censuses - These data are from the decennial censuses taken every ten years. The latest data available are from the 2000 census.
In addition, see the Estimates pages as estimate files include decennial census totals, and for 1990 census numbers on Baby Boomer’s see below.

Estimates - These data are produced for each year since the last decennial census (1990), as well as for past decades.
In addition, see the State Estimates pages as many state estimate files include national totals.

Surveys - These data are from various topical surveys, usually conducted on an annual basis, including the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. The value of the age data from surveys comes from their cross-tabulation with characteristic data (such as marital status or educational attainment).
Projections - These data illustrate the population for future years, based on plausible courses of population change (births, deaths, and international migration).

State Level - age data are available from the following sources:


Censuses - These data are from the decennial censuses taken every ten years. The latest data available are from the 2000 census.
In addition, for 1990 census numbers on Baby Boomer’s see below.

Estimates - These data are produced for each year since the last decennial census (1990), as well as for past decades. The latest data available are for age and sex for 1997.
Projections - These data illustrate the population for future years, based on plausible courses of future population change (births, deaths, state-to-state migration and international migration). The latest data available are for 2025.

County Level - age data are available from the following sources:

Censuses - These data are from the decennial censuses taken every ten years. The latest data available are from the 2000 census.
Estimates - These data are produced for each year since the last decennial census (1990), as well as for past decades.

The Census Bureau relies on many projections which compiled from available data, and such estimates are constantly revised as new data is gathered,

(I work for them, so if you wish to explore this in depth, let me know, and the 'quick facts' pages aren't the most in-depth analysis available. Those pages are, for the most part, aimed at students and not to be construed as the most analytical examples of what you can find within the many Census Bureau's reports.)

...the Census Bureau does it's best, but when the Census Bureau states that they are estimating, that means they are not stating that it's been proven.

Better facts will come out in the 2010 Census, ...until then, much of what you will find on the Census Bureau sites are, as is clearly stated, just their best guess.

That's why I suggested that the numbers previously cited may have been true for some time in the past, but that current data seem to suggest there are some big changes happening.

Remember, when the Census Bureau states:

Age

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, County Population Estimates by Demographic Characteristics

...that means the age data is estimated from many varied 'sources', but that it's still an estimate based on much data that is dated.

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[User 2]

If one is interested,

....the complete datasets of the most recent 2007 'estimates' available from the US Census Bureau are available here:

Population Estimates Data Sets
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[Aerobars]

I never stated that they weren't estimates, and yes, the next census is 2 years away. However, I haven't seen a better data set that is currently available than from the US Census Bureau.

[User 2]

If one is interested,

....the complete datasets of the most recent 2007 'estimates' available from the US Census Bureau are available here:

Population Estimates Data Sets
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ISER has been studying Alaska demographics since 1961, here is another good report to become familiar with:

http://www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska...m06_04size.pdf

UAA Strategic Planning External Scan
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[User 2]

Originally Posted by Aerobars

I never stated that they weren't estimates, and yes, the next census is 2 years away. However, I haven't seen a better data set that is currently available than from the US Census Bureau.

I wasn't implying you misrepresented the info, I was stressing that what is listed as 'Quick Facts' is not facts, instead, it's only estimates, and depending on which line of all those lines offered, they are all arrived at by various means.

It's not you who labeled the Census page with a headline that misrepresents the data, it is the 'fault' of the Census Bureau ' web editorial staff'.

(it's not the only time there's been discussion about possible misrepresentation of available data.)

In any case, it wasn't directed at you, I only provided the necessary correction in case anyone got the idea that the Quick Facts pages were indeed based on only 'facts'.


Though, it's very easy to get misled by the omission of relevant information not clearly offered in any preface to those Quick Fact pages. If one does not drill down for the methodology, they may think those numbers might represent more than they do......



As I posted for your benefit, or anyone else interested, there are better datasets available, even from the Census Bureau, though as noted before, even they are 'estimates' based in part on dated material. Be sure and read the material available from ISER and the State Council on Aging.

And you are correct, we will soon have a new census tabulation, although there will still be some indeterminate lag time before that data is released in any usable form.

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