Realtor agents feedback about 08 home prices (Fairbanks, Wasilla: mortgage, loans, real estate)

[travelmate38]

I have spent some of my spare time these past few weeks speaking with some of Alaska's top real estate agents. Here is what I have gathered on their outlook and performance.

Several agents said they are working with, or have on their contact lists, numerous potential buyers who have a common belief or theme. These buyers think the bottom is not in yet, so they are waiting and wating for that super special deal. Most agents feel that even though the market is slower, that super sweet deal is not likely to happen. Their reasoning is two fold.... that many sellers are doing the same. They refuse to list their homes at what they feel would be a "given away" price. Even though most homes are selling close to what they did last summer. The other reason, is that sellers seem to only be willing to drop their prices on their homes so far and are refusing to go lower. They are waiting too. Just because their are less buyers right now, is not a reason alone for sellers to start wholesaling their homes. They are being stubborn to some extent. Why? Because the economy is doing quite well and it looks like we might actually get a pipeline deal done. People are willing to hold their good jobs and pay their mortgage waiting for a buyer who appreciates their home.

Most agents I spoke with felt that right now at this moment in time is the time to buy. They feel for Alaska the bottom is in now, if there ever truly was one. They feel with less sellers willing to list their homes, new construction slowing to crawl and the economy doing very well at the moment, that waiting will equate to higher prices come mid spring into summer. Got your eye on that beautiful $200,000-$300,0000 home? Right now is the time to make a move. Alaska will not see the repo wave, and sellers jumping ship this time. Buyers, it's not going to happen. If you're looking for that type of deal, go to Southern Cali, or Florida. Alaska is stable and rebounding right now as I write this.

[coffeehound]

Interesting. Did you talk to agents from different regions? I'm curious how the interior is doing versus SE AK, for instance...

[icarian]

I'm sure the real estate agents are hoping that is the truth...have their sellers throw any ole home up on the market in any state of disrepair and advise said seller to post an exorbitant increase in price. All about increasing their percentages. And yes, I do attribute a significant portion of the artificially high prices in the last four years to advice from agents. Besides all the tertiary items (bad loans, etc), buyers finally responded (I was one of those who refused to buy at such outrageous prices in the Fairbanks area) to the easy money being made.

Law of supply and demand...just took longer for the revolt than it should have.

[travelmate38]

Originally Posted by icarian

I'm sure the real estate agents are hoping that is the truth...have their sellers throw any ole home up on the market in any state of disrepair and advise said seller to post an exorbitant increase in price. All about increasing their percentages. And yes, I do attribute a significant portion of the artificially high prices in the last four years to advice from agents. Besides all the tertiary items (bad loans, etc), buyers finally responded (I was one of those who refused to buy at such outrageous prices in the Fairbanks area) to the easy money being made.

Law of supply and demand...just took longer for the revolt than it should have.

What drives home prices is more then just the simple rule of thumb........supply and demand. You also need to equate the actualy costs involved in building a new home these days in Alaska. Building materials across the board have went up some 42% in the past 5 years, mostly due to oil prices. This dicates price to some extent and when buyers cannot or are not willing to pay the prices that builders have to charge to build the homes, then builders stop building. When builders stop building, the inventory dries up. That, my friend, is what we are starting to see happen now. A summer ago most homes listed on the market in the valley were 2005-2007 new homes. Not today and that percentage will continue to decrease.

[Barkingowl]

Aren't there around 140 homes in foreclosure in Wasilla alone? I wonder how many homes are either in foreclosure or heading that way statewide?

[User 2]

Originally Posted by travelmate38

I have spent some of my spare time these past few weeks speaking with some of Alaska's top real estate agents. Here is what I have gathered on their outlook and performance.

Several agents said they are working with, or have on their contact lists, numerous potential buyers who have a common belief or theme. These buyers think the bottom is not in yet, so they are waiting and wating for that super special deal. Most agents feel that even though the market is slower, that super sweet deal is not likely to happen. Their reasoning is two fold.... that many sellers are doing the same. They refuse to list their homes at what they feel would be a "given away" price. Even though most homes are selling close to what they did last summer. The other reason, is that sellers seem to only be willing to drop their prices on their homes so far and are refusing to go lower. They are waiting too. Just because their are less buyers right now, is not a reason alone for sellers to start wholesaling their homes. They are being stubborn to some extent. Why? Because the economy is doing quite well and it looks like we might actually get a pipeline deal done. People are willing to hold their good jobs and pay their mortgage waiting for a buyer who appreciates their home.

Most agents I spoke with felt that right now at this moment in time is the time to buy. They feel for Alaska the bottom is in now, if there ever truly was one. They feel with less sellers willing to list their homes, new construction slowing to crawl and the economy doing very well at the moment, that waiting will equate to higher prices come mid spring into summer. Got your eye on that beautiful $200,000-$300,0000 home? Right now is the time to make a move. Alaska will not see the repo wave, and sellers jumping ship this time. Buyers, it's not going to happen. If you're looking for that type of deal, go to Southern Cali, or Florida. Alaska is stable and rebounding right now as I write this.

Let's review:

Top real estate agents

No one is going to drop their price

The economy is doing 'quite well'

We might get a 'pipeline'

Right now at this moment is the time to buy

The bottom is happening now

(Again) The economy is doing very well

Prices will only rise soon

Buy now.
.
..
Now let's look beyond what the real estate agents might want you to believe:

Unemployment is rising, new job growth not expected to exceed demand.

In the last decade or so, we've added 50,000 people to our population without creating an equal number of new jobs.

Out of state residents hold 20% of all the jobs in the state, most of those concentrated in oil and gas, and other natural resource jobs.

More people vying for a dwindling number of jobs means most wages decline for most workers.

Alaska most recent growth trend has come to a near stall, with any continued growth in the coming year forecasted to rise by only a half percentage point, if that.

The 'economy' is lagging, with cost of living forecasts expected to rise.

Construction projects and construction jobs are expected to drop in the coming year. Those workers will look for other jobs.

Service sector jobs have leveled off.

Federal spending is expected to drop.

Residential construction has fallen to a 13 year low with no rebound expected.

Any pipeline employment is several years away, even if they find a way to sign a contract any time soon.

.
..

Unsolicited advice promising a rosy picture, and recommendations to go out and buy now.


Got your eye on that two or three hundred thousand dollar beauty?

Think twice before you believe what an 'agent' tells you.

They only get paid when you buy, and they want you to buy at the highest possible price so they make the most money for their pocket off your transaction.


The OP's post looks like spam to me.....


...and lo and behold, guess who just so happens to have one of those two or three hundred thousand dollar beauties for sale?

http://www.city-data.com/forum/2636451-post1.html

Yep, ....buy now.....(......please buy 'my' house now, ....before it loses more value.)


.
..

[travelmate38]

Originally Posted by User 2

Let's review:

Top real estate agents

No one is going to drop their price

The economy is doing 'quite well'

We might get a 'pipeline'

Right now at this moment is the time to buy

The bottom is happening now

(Again) The economy is doing very well

Prices will only rise soon

Buy now.
.
..
Now let's look beyond what the real estate agents might want you to believe:

Unemployment is rising, new job growth not expected to exceed demand.

In the last decade or so, we've added 50,000 people to our population without creating an equal number of new jobs.

Out of state residents hold 20% of all the jobs in the state, most of those concentrated in oil and gas, and other natural resource jobs.

More people vying for a dwindling number of jobs means most wages decline for most workers.

Alaska most recent growth trend has come to a near stall, with any continued growth in the coming year forecasted to rise by only a half percentage point, if that.

The 'economy' is lagging, with cost of living forecasts expected to rise.

Construction projects and construction jobs are expected to drop in the coming year. Those workers will look for other jobs.

Service sector jobs have leveled off.

Federal spending is expected to drop.

Residential construction has fallen to a 13 year low with no rebound expected.

Any pipeline employment is several years away, even if they find a way to sign a contract any time soon.

.
..

Unsolicited advice promising a rosy picture, and recommendations to go out and buy now.


Got your eye on that two or three hundred thousand dollar beauty?

Think twice before you believe what an 'agent' tells you.

They only get paid when you buy, and they want you to buy at the highest possible price so they make the most money for their pocket off your transaction.


The OP's post looks like spam to me.....


...and lo and behold, guess who just so happens to have one of those two or three hundred thousand dollar beauties for sale?

http://www.city-data.com/forum/2636451-post1.html

Yep, ....buy now.....(......please buy 'my' house now, ....before it loses more value.)


.
..

Ha, you're too funny. Another mountain guy waiting for the end of the world while digging that bomb shell bunker deeper and deeper? Keep buying up all those Costco canned fruits, yep it is going to happen any day now.
I've heard it for years and years.."all the jobs are going overseas and to foreigners,” etc. What they don't tell you about is how global and local markets shift, all the time. This is why America's economy as a whole as been good. It can adapt and as old markets are lost new ones are formed. All these fine people will tell you about the 50,000 steel workers and airline jobs lost, but won't bother to tell you about the 2 million tech jobs that were created at higher wages during the same time period. It is called shifting markets.

As for my home, I am leasing it rather then selling into this lower market. I'm going to sit on it for 2-3 years then sell it for $50,000-$75,000 more then it would bring today.

As for all the jobless folks in Alaska......only jobless folks I know are those who don't want to work, period! In my field (and it is a common one) I can have a lucrative position yesterday as well as could my wife, except we both already work. Meanwhile, you keep waiting for those prices to fall and fall some more, cause it's not going to happen. And make sure and save me that 10 pound can of vanilla pudding from Costco, It's my favorite.

[User 2]

Originally Posted by travelmate38

.....make sure and save me that 10 pound can of vanilla pudding from Costco, It's my favorite.

Costco pudding by the ten pound can,

.....that pretty much sums it up, eh?

The figures I cite aren't from any mountain survivalist fantasy, it's all in the Alaska State Department of Labor's reports and forecasts.

http://www.labor.state.ak.us/researc...atePopProj.xls

http://www.labor.state.ak.us/researc...atePopProj.xls

Workforce Info, Home, POP-L1- Link from quick facts

http://146.63.75.50/research/reshire/nonres.pdf

Workforce Info, Home, -Estimates & Projections

Workforce Info, Home, -Income Data


Read it yourself, .....if you can put down that pudding scoop long enough.

Growth Forecasted to Slow in 2008

Federal belt-tightening

Service sector may be all caught up

Construction’s woes

Construction is slowing

Professional and business services
growth will slow

Health care growth might slow

Commercial construction
expected to slow

Reduced action in
residential construction

The only difference I see, ...is that I'm not trying to boost opinions because I have property I want to unload,

......you do.
.
..

[Marty Van Diest]

My most recent update, yesterday, was not too promising. Only 13 closings for the week in the Mat-Su Borough. That's the lowest since I've been keeping track.

We are coming off the slowest time of year so we do expect some slowness, but it's slower than last year by a little bit.

Lots of new listings hitting the market. 51 just in the last week.

Appraisers still say they are not seeing prices decline. When they do see prices decline they will note that on their appraisals. That makes it harder to get low downpayment loans.

As opposed to some, I'm not an optimist on a gas line. I certainly hope to see it but am not counting on it.

We are not at the bottom because prices haven't dropped in the Mat-Su. Right now they are steady.

But still, things are better here than in many places in the country. They are certainly better than the large metropolitan areas in CA, FL, NV, AZ, and in some of the eastern states.

People are still buying homes, and people are still having new homes built. There are not as many new homes being built as there were 2 years ago. But as long as buyers are still opting for new homes over used ones, the bottom cannot have dropped out of the market. A pre-sold new home has a limit to how low it can go. That demand has not died so the market is still there.

I am working with real buyers, with real money, looking for real houses. But they are certainly shopping.

[Barkingowl]

Originally Posted by Marty Van Diest

We are not at the bottom because prices haven't dropped in the Mat-Su. Right now they are steady.

I've noticed the same thing. What have you seen in the Willow area?