Arctic Ice Extent Understated Because of "Sensor Drift" (Barrow: 2009, credit)

[akdreamin]

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has been predicting doom in the arctic as ice melts due to global warming... in May, 2008 they went so far as to predict that the North Pole would be ice-free during the 2008 melt season.

Today they say that they have been the victims of 'sensor drift' that led to an underestimation of Arctic ice extent by as much as 500,000 square kilometers. Turns out they are using a model which they know has problems and don't feel like using the newer more accurate models.

Here's their take on it:
Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

I suppose at least they admit they are wrong.

Also of note, sea ice extent (using the more accurate models, from our boys up at UAF) in 2009 is shown to be tracking ahead of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.
IJIS Web Site

So much for a tropical anchorage...

Cheers.

[The Grill God]

Thanks for sharing I'm sure it won't end the debate. Certain groups have a lot invested in the idea of global warming and the doom and glum scenario.

[starlite9]

Originally Posted by akdreamin

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has been predicting doom in the arctic as ice melts due to global warming... in May, 2008 they went so far as to predict that the North Pole would be ice-free during the 2008 melt season.

Today they say that they have been the victims of 'sensor drift' that led to an underestimation of Arctic ice extent by as much as 500,000 square kilometers. Turns out they are using a model which they know has problems and don't feel like using the newer more accurate models.

Here's their take on it:
Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis

I suppose at least they admit they are wrong.

Also of note, sea ice extent (using the more accurate models, from our boys up at UAF) in 2009 is shown to be tracking ahead of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.
IJIS Web Site

So much for a tropical anchorage...

Cheers.

Well considering the whole Arctic Ice pack is free floating and goes the way of the winds, I'm not surprised.

When we are operating our boats there each summer beginning in July, when the wind comes from the south, the ice goes away, when the wind blows from over the pole, the ice returns, then freezes for the winter in October.... Same as it has done for centuries. The water is only open for a few months at best anyway, then refreezes.

And yes I know that some winters are colder and some are warmer, but it isn't from man made Global warming. The last Ice Age was also a victim of Global warming and they still can't find out who to blame for that one... I am putting money on Buffalo farts, too much methane in the air, and caused a "brown house" gas....

[Floyd_Davidson]

Originally Posted by starlite9

Well considering the whole Arctic Ice pack is free floating and goes the way of the winds, I'm not surprised.

It has not usually been free floating though. I'm not sure if it has gone into free-float mode in the last couple of years or not (that was one prediction of a reason that melting would be accelerated if it reached a critical point.

When we are operating our boats there each summer beginning in July, when the wind comes from the south, the ice goes away, when the wind blows from over the pole, the ice returns, then freezes for the winter in October.... Same as it has done for centuries.

That is your vast imagination at work again. And as usual, totally off base.

The predominant winds here are from the east, there is never a period of normally north or south winds (that only happens as storms pass through an area, moving from west to east).

During the summer months the ice pack recedes somewhat north, but mostly east from Alaska. Even as short as ten years ago it would have only been from 50 to 100 miles north of Barrow (and much farther north of Point Hope). But what this "non-existant" global warming has done is move the ice pack 300 miles from Barrow. The significance is great, and among the more obvious results are that where 10 years ago there were almost always free floating chunks of ice in the ocean off of Barrow, today there are several months without any ice at all.

The general movement of the icepack in the Arctic Ocean is clockwise. It is generally grounded on the northern most Canadian islands and also pushes up against Wrangell Island off Siberia. Speculation some years ago was that if the ice receded enough to free float in the center of the Arctic Ocean, it would almost instantly melt completely. Instead it seems to have melted from the middle outward, and is still wide enough prevent spinning.

The water is only open for a few months at best anyway, then refreezes.

Today, due to global warming, it is open for more months than it is closed along the Alaska coast.

And yes I know that some winters are colder and some are warmer, but it isn't from man made Global warming. The last Ice Age was also a victim of Global warming and they still can't find out who to blame for that one... I am putting money on Buffalo farts, too much methane in the air, and caused a "brown house" gas....

So the fact that exploding volcanoes and collisions with meteors have caused natural disasters means, according to you, that it is okay if we cause a disaster too. Very logical...

[starlite9]

Floyd, you are so easy to bait into fields that you don't have any business in..

By the way, the last three years, we had to pull our boats about two weeks earlier each year because of early freeze up. That left open water for only about three and a half months, verses almost four and a half three years ago.... What does that prove... nothing, other than it got colder a bit sooner...

Geeze.... look at that, as of today, the ice is frozen (again) to the beach again, right off your doorstep in Barrow.... Where is that "Global Warming" when you need it. Does that every year too...

The Barrow Sea Ice Webcam

[Floyd_Davidson]

Originally Posted by starlite9

Floyd, you are so easy to bait into fields that you don't have any business in..

So you say... and dig deeper hole!

By the way, the last three years, we had to pull our boats about two weeks earlier each year because of early freeze up. That left open water for only about three and a half months, verses almost four and a half three years ago.... What does that prove... nothing, other than it got colder a bit sooner...

It does prove that even if you look up "non sequitur" a dictionary it won't mean anything to you. You are not pulling your boats because of the icepack, but due to shore ice. It is also true that the start date for your operations is based on shore ice too, not the icepack.

When did you first work in the Arctic Ocean? The difference in just the last ten years is dramatic, but from 30 years ago it is simply astounding. I thought you had said you'd been up here for some time, but you sound just like your first trip was 3 or 4 years ago. (Of course it's also likely that you've never spent a winter here either, so I guess we can't expect too much if you only see 3-4 months of it.)

Geeze.... look at that, as of today, the ice is frozen (again) to the beach again, right off your doorstep in Barrow.... Where is that "Global Warming" when you need it. Does that every year too...

So you are saying that shore ice in Barrow at 71N latitute in February proves something about either the size of the icepack or about global warming!

After everyone finishes laughing...

(Ten or fifteen minutes later let me point out that is exactly the same problem with your comments about when the icepack is close to Alaska, and why. You relate it to things which have no connection at all, other than sharing the same area of the world.

[akdreamin]

Originally Posted by starlite9

Well considering the whole Arctic Ice pack is free floating and goes the way of the winds, I'm not surprised.

They estimate the extent based upon satellite data.

In any case 2007, by all measurements, was a record low year (since 1979, went they started watching) for sea ice coverage. Floyd is absolutely right, the artic has seen a fairly dramatic drop in polar ice over the last 30 years.



Curiously the antarctic has not seen a similar drop in sea ice, rather it has remained constant. (Small increase, probably statistically negligible).

2009 is, however tracking ahead of the previous few years. I'm hoping to see some polar ice rebuilding this year. Anyway, we'll see.

[starlite9]

Originally Posted by Floyd_Davidson

So you say... and dig deeper hole!
It does prove that even if you look up "non sequitur" a dictionary it won't mean anything to you. You are not pulling your boats because of the icepack, but due to shore ice. It is also true that the start date for your operations is based on shore ice too, not the icepack.

And where do you think the freezing process starts at... In the shallows by the shore, same as it has done for eons... It will also spread out from the ice already frozen floating out at sea.

When did you first work in the Arctic Ocean? The difference in just the last ten years is dramatic, but from 30 years ago it is simply astounding. I thought you had said you'd been up here for some time, but you sound just like your first trip was 3 or 4 years ago. (Of course it's also likely that you've never spent a winter here either, so I guess we can't expect too much if you only see 3-4 months of it.)

Well my first trip was about thirty five years ago on a Coast Guard icebreaker, the ice was gone from Barrow and you couldn't see any from the ship or shore, same as today in late August to Early September. Not so much as enough ice to cool down a glass of tea...

So you are saying that shore ice in Barrow at 71N latitute in February proves something about either the size of the icepack or about global warming!

No, I am saying in February, it is winter.... like every year, some times colder and some times warmer. For the last couple of hundred years, Whalers have been going there to kill whales where you claim there was ice and not able to get to. Half of Barrow residents are descendants of those Yankee Whalers...

After everyone finishes laughing...

Sad to hear you laughing by yourself....

(Ten or fifteen minutes later let me point out that is exactly the same problem with your comments about when the icepack is close to Alaska, and why. You relate it to things which have no connection at all, other than sharing the same area of the world.

When Chicken little runs around yelling "The Sky is Falling", you run right in behind it flapping your arms.

Ice Ages have come and gone long before man decided that there was some kind of financial gain and selling "Carbon Credits" (Church of the Global Warming and the Rev Al Gore).

25,000 years ago, the ice covered almost all of Alaska, Canada and the Northern areas of the Lower 48 States. It is still melting from then, nothing new, and in it's own time, it will refreeze again.

It even took out the Woolly Mammoth, THAT is what nature does, exactly what it wants to do...

The arrogance of people to think that in some 100+- years, we are controlling the planet's weather when it has been doing the same thing for millions of years with repeated Ice ages and Global warming without us. We haven't even been here a blink of an eye yet, and yet we are now the percived Problem.... I really doubt it... An yes, I believe we should be good stewards of the planet, but common sense had long gone out the window with the far left.

The Arctic ice is going to come and go, so you don't need to get your panties in a bind over it.

[starlite9]

Originally Posted by akdreamin

They estimate the extent based upon satellite data.

In any case 2007, by all measurements, was a record low year (since 1979, went they started watching) for sea ice coverage. Floyd is absolutely right, the artic has seen a fairly dramatic drop in polar ice over the last 30 years.



Curiously the antarctic has not seen a similar drop in sea ice, rather it has remained constant. (Small increase, probably statistically negligible).

2009 is, however tracking ahead of the previous few years. I'm hoping to see some polar ice rebuilding this year. Anyway, we'll see.

In due time, the trend will reverse and then there will be those screaming we started a new Ice age. At some point common sense has to kick in somewhere and realize that the planet has had cycles that we are some how just realizing that this happened.

The North Slope of Alaska is a very rich area of oil, why... Because at some time in the distant past, it was a tropic zone with massive swamps that later became oilfields, then it got cooler and warmer and cooler and warmer to where it is now. Over millions of years, not the last couple of dozen or so that is now touted as the records for all experts to opine over.

Was only a few hundreds years ago, the experts figured the planet was flat too... I think Floyd came from that line of experts...

[Floyd_Davidson]

Originally Posted by starlite9

And where do you think the freezing process starts at... In the shallows by the shore, same as it has done for eons... It will also spread out from the ice already frozen floating out at sea.

Nice fairy tale, great imagination, but not good science. The annual icepack expansion has virtually nothing to do with shore ice.

Do you really think it grows from the southern part of the ocean and expands northward???

Well my first trip was about thirty five years ago on a Coast Guard icebreaker, the ice was gone from Barrow and you couldn't see any from the ship or shore, same as today in late August to Early September. Not so much as enough ice to cool down a glass of tea...

More bad science. It may have been that way the day your scow passed by, but on other days there was a great deal of ice. That was true because while it may have been out of sight (which in your case is out of mind), the ice pack was relatively close at less than 100 miles distant. Today at that time of year it is 300 miles away.

Once again you assume that your transient and non-scientific observations have greater significance than facts.

No, I am saying in February, it is winter.

That's astounding! Really??? How did you figure that out?

What has that got to do with the extent of the icepack in the summer? Nothing! Non sequitur.

Sad to hear you laughing by yourself....
...
When Chicken little runs around yelling "The Sky is Falling", you run right in behind it flapping your arms.

Time for a moderator to step in and delete a few posts, because you've been backed into a corner again, and as usual you've lost control.

The rest of your tirade is not only illogical but off topic. The fact that there is a warming trend is not logically deniable. The fact that human activities are contributing to it is not deniable. The extent to which we contribute is something we can't measure precisely though. Crackpots looking at weather variations and claiming it means something about global warming are a dime a dozen, so while you are not alone it is still just a joke.