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Old 07-17-2009, 08:43 PM
 
97 posts, read 196,689 times
Reputation: 95

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Quote:
Originally Posted by starlite9 View Post
Well if you copy and paste the NASA data on the reflected surface temps of the othe planets, you will find the "Sun" is the one that is causing the temp increase, not man.

Arrogance of man's ability is a bit overdone... Although we do have the ability to wipe ourselves off the planet in less than an hour, which to me is a tad more pressing.
Yes, I've read this paper. They don't make this same claims as you do.

Here's the summary version of the article in question:
Solar Variability: Striking A Balance With Climate Change

You'll find a few choice tidbits in the summary like the following:
"The fluctuations in the solar cycle impacts Earth's global temperature by about 0.1 degree Celsius, slightly hotter during solar maximum and cooler during solar minimum,"

and
"Over the past century, Earth's average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit). Solar heating accounts for about 0.15 C, or 25 percent, of this change..."

and
"Earth's climate depends on the delicate balance between incoming solar radiation, outgoing thermal radiation and the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Even small changes in these parameters can affect climate."

That "composition of the earth's atmosphere" bit is the correlation between global temps and CO2 ('carbon') floatin around in the atmosphere.

and lastly
""Greenhouse gases block about 40 percent of outgoing thermal radiation that emanates from Earth," Woods said. The resulting imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation will likely cause Earth to heat up over the next century, accelerating the melting polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise and increasing the probability of more violent global weather patterns."

If your going to point to data, please frame it in the proper context.

So here we go..
Facts that can be proved:
1) Earth is warming, pretty quick looking the historical data.
2) Artic ice is melting, dramatically over the last 30 years.
3) C02 has jumped over the last 100 years.
4) Historical data shows correlation between CO2 levels and temps.
5) Historical data shows correlation between sun cycles and temps.
6) Man is pumping alot of CO2 up into the atmosphere.

Edited to add this:
Note: I did not say anything in the facts about what's causing what.

Last edited by akdreamin; 07-17-2009 at 08:53 PM.. Reason: A clarification added to th end.
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Old 07-17-2009, 09:35 PM
 
97 posts, read 196,689 times
Reputation: 95
Default Volcanos

Rance had asked about volcanoes contributing to carbon in the air. Which is a good question that deserved a response, however the thread was closed before I had a chance to respond... and I didn't want to open a new thread just for the answer... but since we're here again... here goes.

Volcanoes dump about 100-150 million tons of carbon dioxide per year to the air. Crazy eh?

Man's activities are estimated to contribute about 8-10 billion tons per year.

Now, things are a little more complex than this... cause volcanoes actually can cool the earth's surface by forming sulfuric acid aerosols way up in the upper atmosphere... these reflect the sun's heat... thus cooling the earth. Indeed there have been massive eruptions that have cooled the earth for a short period for time. Normally these effects are transient, and the aerosols dissipate before any long term effects are felt. If we had a continually erupting volcano constantly spewing large amounts of SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide) we could talk about global cooling.

Actually this sort of idea is talked about as a solution to the whole issue. Why not seed the sky with particles that reflect the heat... to offset the warming... but perhaps that a bit off the topic of volcanoes. But hell perhaps that's better than some of the taxes that have been proposed.

Hope that helped clear the volcano thing up.

Cheers,
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Old 07-17-2009, 10:42 PM
 
Location: alaska
471 posts, read 1,142,298 times
Reputation: 340
Well, Crossfire the real question we should be asking is this.........
How was the fishing and where did you go?
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Old 07-18-2009, 03:01 AM
 
Location: Alaska
6,308 posts, read 4,208,810 times
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The fishing was awesome! limited out on Silvers and picked up some Kings and Pinks as well.. We got into a pile of nice black bass. So many that we couldn't get to the bottom were the lings were.
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Old 07-18-2009, 06:56 AM
 
Location: POW
21 posts, read 51,082 times
Reputation: 41
Hi all, this is my first post after lurking around for a couple of weeks. Some of you may be interested in the following links: http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/3658 (broken link) ... 7-full.jpg http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/3658 (broken link) ... 7-full.jpg Cheers
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Old 07-18-2009, 01:26 PM
 
Location: alaska
471 posts, read 1,142,298 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crossfire600 View Post
The fishing was awesome! limited out on Silvers and picked up some Kings and Pinks as well.. We got into a pile of nice black bass. So many that we couldn't get to the bottom were the lings were.
Thats great!!! Those little rock fish are great eating too. We had some ling and some copper rock fish last week and they were hard to tell apart. The ling just had bigger flakes of meat.
Theres finally some reds here in the valley. I caught a limit this morning and was home by 8:30.
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Old 07-18-2009, 09:39 PM
 
Location: Big Island- Hawaii, AK, WA where the whales are!
1,492 posts, read 3,572,907 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by akdreamin View Post
Now, things are a little more complex than this... cause volcanoes actually can cool the earth's surface by forming sulfuric acid aerosols way up in the upper atmosphere... these reflect the sun's heat... thus cooling the earth. Indeed there have been massive eruptions that have cooled the earth for a short period for time. Normally these effects are transient, and the aerosols dissipate before any long term effects are felt. If we had a continually erupting volcano constantly spewing large amounts of SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide) we could talk about global cooling.

,
Interesting idea of the cooling -- last winter in Hawaii Pele was (hopefully has slowed down now by a collaspe June 30th) a new vent that cause much vog (sulfur Dioxide fog) since March 08. It was a really wet and April downright cool for Hawaii. Many locals can't remember an April like that......Washington had warmer days while I was over there then.
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Old 07-18-2009, 11:01 PM
 
97 posts, read 196,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nwcountrygal View Post
Interesting idea of the cooling -- last winter in Hawaii Pele was (hopefully has slowed down now by a collaspe June 30th) a new vent that cause much vog (sulfur Dioxide fog) since March 08. It was a really wet and April downright cool for Hawaii. Many locals can't remember an April like that......Washington had warmer days while I was over there then.
I'm not familiar with this example, so I cannot comment about it.

The specific examples I had in mind were the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa (or Krakatau), and the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

Krakatoa - The big daddy, one of the most violent volcanic events in modern history. Average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius. Weather patterns continued to be chaotic for years, and temperatures did not return to normal until 1888.


This painting from 1893, in norway is thought to be a depiction of the red skies caused by Krakatoa.


Mount Pinatubo - 30 million tons of ash/aerosols that remained in the atmosphere for three years, reflecting sunlight back into space. This cooled the planet by a up to 0.5 degrees Celsius a few years.

These are the ones we have the most data on... however there are more detailed under the tern Volcanic Winter on wikipedia.

Cheers,
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Old 07-19-2009, 12:23 AM
 
Location: Interior alaska
6,381 posts, read 11,994,080 times
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Here is an story about the Planet Mar's being in a warming tread as is Earth. The story tends to throw water on the "Man made" versions... again, I tend to believe that "Follow the Money" is more of a reason that the Global Warming fad of blaming man is a hoax.

Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says

This is one of hundreds of such stories put out by a number of sources such as NASA and other oddities.
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Old 07-19-2009, 03:32 PM
 
97 posts, read 196,689 times
Reputation: 95
I believe data. I don't believe any interpretation of the climate data that points its finger at a single cause, whether that be man, the sun, ocean currents or some flying spaghetti monster. Climate is more complex than that, its a huge dynamic system which is at best poorly understand.

I don't believe the doom and gloom forecasts of the propagandists. I think Al Gore is a buffoon, and he did more to harm to climate science than can be said. You do not do science by making propagandist films.

Skeptics make good scientists, they question things-- examine things over and over again from new angles. That is good science.

I agree wholeheartedly that climate science has been politicized and corrupted by the media and politicians. Moreover, this does not yield an environment that is friendly at all to getting real science done.

I do not deny that the recent warming trend seen in the data is at least in some part caused by man.

The biggest question is: How much of the warming can be attributed to man? That is a much harder question to answer, and I really don't believe anyone has really solid answer for that. I do believe man is responsible for this recent spike in CO2 in the air. I do believe that CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, warming the planet by trapping heat -- there is compelling evidence that this is the case. However so is water vapor and methane... why are we not proposing legislation to regulate water vapor and cow farts too?!

Lastly, I believe any attempt to curb man's output of CO2 is doomed to failure. China and India are going through major industrialization and will continue to to do so with the concurrent exponential increase in CO2 emissions... its crazy to think we can fix that. Its a waste of money.

So I believe that the current observed data showing global warming is real (the data shows its getting hotter, arctic ice is melting). I also believe that increased carbon emissions are causing some of the warming -- but we have a poor understanding of how much and we can't really do much to stop global emissions and thus any legislation which would hobble the economy is unwarranted.

Lastly, this post is way too long and I need a beer.
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