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It seems like the area is kind of bipolar, we are either boom or bust. I wonder if this news will have any effect on the city's plan to develop the massive "Santolina" community.
I was trying to remember what it was that accounted for our huge growth spurt in the mid-1990s, with especially rapid growth out over the West Side. Was it Intel? It couldn't have been all government jobs, yet we are hearing that our current bust cycle is due to government downsizing and over-dependence on especially federal govt jobs.
I was trying to remember what it was that accounted for our huge growth spurt in the mid-1990s, with especially rapid growth out over the West Side. Was it Intel? It couldn't have been all government jobs, yet we are hearing that our current bust cycle is due to government downsizing.
Intel did come into its own around 1981 with multiple expansions to follow, so that did attract a lot of people to the westside. However, there were other reasons RR exploded in population; New Yorkers bought up AMREP lots by the tons and many of them built houses out there, seeking to escape NY's rat race for their retirement. Some even came out as part of the witness protection program.
As is the nature of grandparents, many of them brought their grandkids with them, either custodially or as part of a move-the-tribe approach. Cibola HS (serving the entirety of Rio Rancho but in Albuquerque) buckled under the pressure of so many kids.
This also coincided with the divorce boom; many people came to the west side to start a new life on the cheap. Lots of kids split their time between the westside and out-of-state.
The westside exploded in part because land was so cheap and so close to a major metro area. It wasn't long ago that there were no bridges for Montaño or even PDN, but far less traffic. Land values were laughable and that made for houses far cheaper than a largely built-out heights.
Primary economic engine forces for the area were the labs and the base. Although it was insane for here at the time (and I think still insane) for people to buy houses 30 minutes each way from their work, it wasn't for where they were coming from.
Still, the majority of westside growth came from New Mexicans (and ones not from the east side). Economic opportunity was just better in Albuquerque metro than in less developed parts of the state. It also allowed married couples to diversify careers. You may have a good-paying job as a coal miner or a teacher in Random, NM but your spouse wouldn't be able to find a job doing what they were skilled at. Albuquerque offered a market for both jobs.
I was trying to remember what it was that accounted for our huge growth spurt in the mid-1990s, with especially rapid growth out over the West Side. Was it Intel? It couldn't have been all government jobs, yet we are hearing that our current bust cycle is due to government downsizing and over-dependence on especially federal govt jobs.
Intel was stable at that time... HP was being considered, maybe the Santa Anna Star Center in Rio Rancho... Too far ago for me to remember, we did not move here till 98/99 but I had some jobs out here in the area before that.
Last edited by Poncho_NM; 12-16-2015 at 12:02 PM..
I read years ago that one should buy the least property in the best neighborhood that one could afford, and that's probably still true today no matter where you live. It won't guarantee anything, least of all your future home value, but it should give you desirable neighbors, low crime, and good schools if you have kids. That's all anyone should expect.
The idea of real estate investing is one that is lost on me. Of all the things to invest in, this seems fraught w/ risk. It also leads to crazy development schemes, where people often bully their projects through over the objections of the neighborhood, or oversell everything w/ made up figures. Then they build the stuff, pocket the money, and are gone! The citizenry then has to live w/ their actions.
They should make it a law that all "developers" (a much more polite word than I would choose) be required to live in or next to whatever it is that they "develop". Just like all teachers should be required to send their kids to the schools that they teach in. Trust me, we would see a HUGE difference in how things shake out compared to what we have now.
You have to wonder what would happen to the Albuquerque economy w/o health care and the college (along w/ all the businesses that depend on them for survival).
I read years ago that one should buy the least property in the best neighborhood that one could afford, and that's probably still true today no matter where you live. It won't guarantee anything, least of all your future home value, but it should give you desirable neighbors, low crime, and good schools if you have kids. That's all anyone should expect.
The idea of real estate investing is one that is lost on me. Of all the things to invest in, this seems fraught w/ risk. It also leads to crazy development schemes, where people often bully their projects through over the objections of the neighborhood, or oversell everything w/ made up figures. Then they build the stuff, pocket the money, and are gone! The citizenry then has to live w/ their actions.
They should make it a law that all "developers" (a much more polite word than I would choose) be required to live in or next to whatever it is that they "develop". Just like all teachers should be required to send their kids to the schools that they teach in. Trust me, we would see a HUGE difference in how things shake out compared to what we have now.
Such anti-developer sentiment is misplaced, I think. If you developed 100 subdivisions with 100 houses each, how exactly would you be able to live in each one?
People need places to live, and I bet even smarino lives in a house or apartment that was commissioned and built by a developer at some point.
If you don't like what I want to do with a piece of land (assuming it's zoned for it) either buy the land yourself to keep it vacant or don't live near it. If it's not zoned for it, then you can complain.
I seriously doubt there's anything related to zoning or overdevelopment or shoddy development impacting Albuquerque's real estate market in a perceptible way.
Quote:
You have to wonder what would happen to the Albuquerque economy w/o health care and the college (along w/ all the businesses that depend on them for survival).
I don't have to wonder; the labs, the base, and a number of private employers underpin the Albuquerque economy. Health care doesn't really act as a driver, and the university (sorry, college probably more properly applies to CNM in the absence of context) doesn't pay most people all that well unless they're a high-up bureaucrat or a coach.
When I read that I had reservations about the report due to them using zillow/trulia as the value component. Trulia and Zillow have always been off on the 4 homes I've owned since 2009.
According to the FHFA Abq has had a 6% since 2010 or so. Looking at other reports on the FHFA quickly, all indices show a nominal gain since 2012. Not a 5.1 % decline.
When I read that I had reservations about the report due to them using zillow/trulia as the value component. Trulia and Zillow have always been off on the 4 homes I've owned since 2009.
According to the FHFA Abq has had a 6% since 2010 or so. Looking at other reports on the FHFA quickly, all indices show a nominal gain since 2012. Not a 5.1 % decline.
When I read that I had reservations about the report due to them using zillow/trulia as the value component. Trulia and Zillow have always been off on the 4 homes I've owned since 2009.
Recently had my home professionally appraised.
Zillow wasn't off by near as much as I had thought.
we are hearing that our current bust cycle is due to government downsizing and over-dependence on especially federal govt jobs.
There is obviously a lot of truth to Albuquerque's decline since 2009 being due to the reduction in government spending. In fact, the official statistics greatly underestimate New Mexico's reliance on government jobs. The entire healthcare industry in New Mexico, for example, is reliant on medicaid and medicare, even though the employees technically work for private companies. Similarly, Sandia Labs is a private contractor, but in reality, they are entirely funded by the feds as well.
However, what the media and politicians never want to highlight is that a lot of good, well paying employers have left Albuquerque over the past 10 years.
For instance, Xilinx closed its engineering operations here in 2011. Intel has been cutting back, and the Rio Rancho factory was passed up for continued investment by Intel. Philips Semiconductor left in 2003-2004. Titan Aerospace packed up and left as soon as it could. Schott Solar closed in 2012.
To the extent that any other companies have come into Albuquerque, it's mostly been lower paying and lower skill than what left: call centers, Rural Sourcing Inc (RSI).
Moreover, Albuquerque has mostly missed out on all of the tech startup growth that has occurred over the past 10 years. This is because New Mexico doesn't have the investor base to fund new companies, forcing them to move to California or Austin (e.g. NanoMR and many others).
Another worrying statistic is that college enrollment in New Mexico has declined from its already low level. In fact, it has lead the nation in this decline. New Mexico college enrollment drops amid push to reform | KRQE News 13. This is really disconcerting because these kids are the future of business and of the workforce in this state. So you can see that the pipeline is being stalled in ways that will effect us negatively over the next 5-10 years.
I don't see signs that Albuquerque is going to simply crumble like Detroit or Cleveland did, unless KAFB is BRACed (small but distinct possibility). However, because of our stalled workforce pipeline, lack of business investment and slow but steady decline in government jobs (as entitlement spending continues to push out DoD and the labs), I see a slow and tortuous decline.
The sad truth is that reversing these trends takes decades, if you are lucky. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither was Silicon Valley or Austin. The truth is that they made many decades of investment in UT Austin and their city which got them where they are now.
While I applaud Mayor Berry for finally making token gestures to promote entrepreneurship, where is the state investment? Where will the investors come from? The young and motivated tech workforce? While Gov. Richardson certainly made some pretty bad investments that will never pay off in any reasonable timeframe (e.g. Spaceport), what investments has Martinez made? Nothing. I guess I'd rather have false hope than none at all..
The wife and I have cut our spending to a bare minimum. We try not to go out to eat anymore. We didn't even get each other Christmas gifts. We stopped paying extra on our mortgage and student loans. We canceled all vacation plans. Instead, we are saving every penny, and selling superfluous assets (e.g. luxury cars, gadgets, toys, etc.) to save up enough to relocate to a higher cost of living city. I just want to get out of here before one of us gets shot by some ghetto red neck high on meth in a road rage incident (RIP Lilly) or before the tech bubble bursts and hiring is suspended nationally.
Last edited by abqcd; 12-19-2015 at 03:55 PM..
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