What to you thing the area from Mesa Del Sol to Belen will be like in 10 years (people)

[Mike Horrell]

Originally Posted by motorcyclenut

I sell to Grocery Stores, Walmarts,Targets, Sams Club. My product is in stores just need to service the stores. Population growth is good for me. Good thing otherwise I'd be complaining about it!! All and all area with growth and new store coming in are good for the business.

Well, it's going to be a very long time before you see much growth of these sorts
of stores in that area because the mall developers' focus seems to be in Rio Rancho
and the Western Mesa above Central, especially in the area bounded by Central,
I-40, Coors and Unser. There's a LOT of room for retail growth there and there
are existing "seed" stores to grow around.

[_yb]

With the recession just getting going in NM it may be several years before we see growth in that area.

[karmathecat]

Are you at liberty to give a general idea of what the business would be?
I'm thinking Red Box...?

[motorcyclenut]

No I'm not But it's not red box.. I'm just trying to get a feeling what the growth south of the valley will be like in the next 10 years including Mesa Del Sol.

[abqsunport]

it sounds like if you go all the way to the airforce base you have a lot more area than the south valley... Me thinks you also have South parts of Downtown, the University Area, Nob Hill, San Mateo area, etc. If thats true, your population has to be at least 200,00+. With that huge expanse of land, I would say the area will be looking good for growth:

Economy is in downturn... people are more likely to consider Los Lunas and Belen as their choice. Downtown has been seing expansion...some of this expansion will certainly happen south of Central. The University in Contiously getting larger... areas south of Central here will see mild expansion. Nob Hill constantly growing... mild expansion probable. Los Lunas has built a lot of new homes, I see no reason why this wouldn't continue. Belen has seen the excess of Los Lunas. The Westside has seen constant expansion (including south of Central) and there is absolutely no reason this trend won't continue. When, not if, the economy picks up, Mesa Del Sol will begin at least some residential development.

Here is my prediction:
Low Ball (50,000 people increase by 2020)
High Ball (450,000 People increase by 2020)
To me, most likely (100-160k People increase by 2020).

[karmathecat]

The reason I ask about the type of product is that the area you are talking about has some of the lowest income/highest crime in the ABQ area. Not all of the area you are talking about is like that, but that should be a factor in whether or not the business is a success. A business that rents movies for $1 a pop is good with any income level...provided enough people in the area have a valid credit/debit card ( something that could be an issue in some areas ) but you also have to think about things like theft and vandalism although I imagine that's not easy with most red box locations I've seen.
So whatever this business sells/rents/provides must be affordable to the target area and safe from theft and vandalism.

[motorcyclenut]

Thanks I have the current sales figures I was supprised how well the product sold in this area. I also have a chance at the ne hieghts area but I don't see much room for growth up there. Seems the reservation to the north woulnd't allow for growth. That area also covers the placitas area. I'm I correct in my thinking?

[karmathecat]

Not sure how far North and/or West the alternate territory would cover.

There's some growth in Algodones, some in Bernalillo and continuing in Placitas but I don't know if you will see the same numbers you would going south. Income is probably higher in these devloping areas but probably not enough to make up for the differences in numbers of people.

[abqsunport]

The north won't see the same explosion of numbers, but you will see signifcant growth and at much higher incomes. Bernalillo has already started to grow rapidly and if you could get Rio Rancho in the mix, you would certainly have a rapidly growing market. Also, the North East heights isn't really expanding, but they are continuously getting more dense. It might also be worth looking at in your considerations.

[_yb]

Yes Bernalillo was the fastest growing town in NM from 07-08 with a growth rate of 17.16%. It is set up for even more growth.