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Old 08-01-2018, 06:16 PM
 
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it doesn't matter, it's good for the planet that the human population will start to decrease.
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Old 08-07-2018, 06:23 PM
 
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Originally Posted by tijlover View Post
The 1-2 child family idea has spread to many corners of the world. I was initially surprised to see of the low fertility rates in South America, with one exception Bolivia, around 3.3. Mexico now @ 2.2.

Will it get increasingly expensive to live there or visit there? And how many who have emigrated to Europe/U.S. will then do a U-turn?
There are still some pockets of relatively high fertility rates in Central America (Guatemala and Honduras in particular).

Keep in mind that you are talking about total fertility rates. The TFR must stay low for many decades before natural population growth (leaving out immigration) goes to zero. The median age of many of these countries is fairly young.

The TFR of Mexico is estimated a 2.22 while it is 1.87 in the US. But given the young age births still significantly outnumber deaths.

Mexico 125,959,205 population 2,273,564 births 673,882 deaths 2018
USA 329,256,465 population 4,092,658 births 2,713,073 deaths 2018

The considerably younger population in Mexico is much less likely to die.

1,692,379 births 1,300,903 deaths; births - deaths = 391,476 Mexico 2050
4,413,478 births 4,090,832 deaths; births - deaths = 322,646 United States 2050


The only thing you can say for sure about the TFR statistics is that Mexico will probably never ever reach 160 million (from present day 126 million) while the population of the USA is open ended. It may pass China someday.

The effect on immigration will take a long time to mature. Keep in mind that plenty of people emigrate from Eastern European countries where population growth ceased as early as the 1980s. Migration is loosely dependent on fertility rate, but it is primarily dependent on economic status or gang or military activity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tijlover View Post
And will they turn to robots like in Japan/Asia?
Births will continue to outnumber deaths in Mexico for probably half a century.
For comparison Japan
950,046 births 1,250,326 deaths; births - deaths = -300,280 Japan 2018
721,520 births 1,470,915 deaths; births - deaths = -749,395 Japan 2050


Canada has one of the lowest fertility rates for a major country in the hemisphere. Are they turning to robots like Japan?

366,711 births 314,682 deaths; births - deaths = +52,028 Canada 2018
399,427 births 527,359 deaths; births - deaths = -127,932 Canada 2050

Last edited by PacoMartin; 08-07-2018 at 06:33 PM..
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