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Old 02-25-2019, 05:38 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
It makes a mockery of American reasoning in this unfortunate situation. Something of a repeat of history in interference and removal of elected government. Chile, comes to mind. But the lies told, to support intervention in Iraq, in more modern times, followed by the mess that is ongoing.


Barely a single country supports intervention in the region. Even right wing governments like the newly elected one in Brazil.


Sanctions have created chaos, in an already weakened economy. Regardless of American regime dislike, and it is far from perfect, it is a bad look, making America, a nation of overwhelming power in the neighbourhood, appear the bully in the heart and minds of many south of the border.
All major Latin American countries came out against Maduro, as did the EU an d Canada.

As for Maduro, sanctions should let the Venezuelans socialists not to run their mouthes if they have to SELL natural resources to someone. The US can just just fine without ever buying anything from Venezuela. Clearly the Venezuelan regime is going horrible without US exports.

Which if Chavez's revolution could not Venezuelan's dependence on exporting oil to the US, it's actually a demonstration of ULTIMATE failure.
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Old 02-25-2019, 06:50 PM
 
Location: On a Long Island in NY
7,680 posts, read 8,480,429 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aab7855 View Post
Agreed. I´m also talking about a small but pronounced group of guys, university students who think that even people like Gustavo Petro are "capitalist imperialist fascists" in disguise, really out there beliefs if you ask me. Nothing will ever suit them with a situation like this, it´s all some sort of Yankee capitalist plot.

People who are actually somewhere on a sane political spectrum might think that the US only cares because of Venezuela´s oil, and I only hope that when all this is over they can be proven wrong just a little.

Maduro is on the wrong side of history.
Heck, I'm seeing people on the left labeling Juan Guaido as "far right" when the guy is a self described democratic socialist. Furthermore, his Popular Will party is a member of Socialist International ... but somehow he's a far right puppet of Gringo imperialists

BTW: some of these people are sitting members of the US House of Representatives and US Senate
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Old 02-25-2019, 09:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WIHS2006 View Post
Heck, I'm seeing people on the left labeling Juan Guaido as "far right" when the guy is a self described democratic socialist. Furthermore, his Popular Will party is a member of Socialist International ... but somehow he's a far right puppet of Gringo imperialists

BTW: some of these people are sitting members of the US House of Representatives and US Senate

Guaido comes over as a 'chancer' , definitely not to be trusted, but keen on power grabbing and rubbing noses with big business, (especially foreign oil companies)


What he is of course, regardless of past 'socialist' pretentions, is aliened with the neighbouring right Wing governments of Colombia and Brazil.


He appears to have little regard on damage inflicted, just as long as he assumes power.
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Old 02-25-2019, 09:42 PM
 
3,106 posts, read 3,339,013 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
All major Latin American countries came out against Maduro, as did the EU an d Canada.

As for Maduro, sanctions should let the Venezuelans socialists not to run their mouthes if they have to SELL natural resources to someone. The US can just just fine without ever buying anything from Venezuela. Clearly the Venezuelan regime is going horrible without US exports.

Which if Chavez's revolution could not Venezuelan's dependence on exporting oil to the US, it's actually a demonstration of ULTIMATE failure.

I wonder where the people of Latin America's sympathy lays though. Good on Mexico for respecting non intervention in the affairs of another country.


Full marks to Uruguay, one of my favourite nations in those parts, with a great history of democracy to refusing to support the fiasco unfolding in Venezuela.


Goes without saying, the two last left countries of the region, Bolivia and Cuba would back present government.


Not surprising either Colombia or Brazil, both well to the Right, would do otherwise than further the flames.


Obviously, the nation cannot last with sanctions imposed, a currency depreciation and inflation worsening by the day, outside calls for a coup. The power massing against this proud country from outside, will prove impossible to push back, unless outside intervention, which come to think of it, did prevent regime fall in Syria.


Amazingly most the armed forces remain loyal to the allegiance they swore to uphold. (for now) Which is rather more than the power seeking 'alternative' fellow in waiting.
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Old 02-26-2019, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
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I don't really care which label someone uses to describe themselves (capitalist, socialist) as long as they do what they can for the quality of life of their country's population and they don't cause trouble for their neighbors.

The problem I have with Trump talking smack about Maduro (and vice versa) is that it means any future transition of power is going to be more bloody instead of more peaceful.

If there's someone other than Gauido and Maduro who would be better for Venezuela's people, I would all for it. For now, we'll have to consider Gauido as much better than Maduro and see where it goes.
The U.S. involvement has two parts: one is oil, the other is to make sure China/Russia don't increase their influence and power in South America. Neither of these are high-priority lists for the U.S. but are of enough interest to get involved in a minor role. *Should* the U.S. be involved at all? I don't believe any country should meddle in the affairs of any other country, so I say No.

But what's probably going to happen in upcoming months is a coup or civil war, with Maduro locked up in his Palace refusing to come out (like the general in the Autumn of the Patriarch by Márquez) and with Venezuelans fighting Venezuelans with a lot of Chavistas surrendering quickly because of the fear of U.S-backed troops. Maduro will be arrested (or killed during the coup), Gauido will be put in power. Russia will be pissed off and will get further invovled in a guerrilla movement against the government, continuing to fund ex-FARC and socialists and sending more spies over there to stir up problems, and China will continue to send money but won't be directly involved in any military stuff. But in spite of all this, the life of the average Venezuelan will slowly start to improve with the dictator gone, economics and other things will slowly start to get more stable.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:10 AM
 
Location: Canada
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[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by 80skeys View Post

But what's probably going to happen in upcoming months is a coup or civil war, with Maduro locked up in his Palace refusing to come out (like the general in the Autumn of the Patriarch by Márquez) and with Venezuelans fighting Venezuelans with a lot of Chavistas surrendering quickly because of the fear of U.S-backed troops.
A coup might happen if the army turns against Maduro but unless the US attacked Venezuela directly, I don't see Chavistas surrendering at all. Venezuelan anti-Chavista elements don't have the man power to start a civil war, even with the US backing them it would be difficult. The US would have to attack them directly.

Would the US public support backing or being involved directly in open conflict with Venezuela? Would Colombians be ok with US troops or contra revolutionaries coming into their country and launching attacks on Venezuela from their soil? That could have serious repercussions for Colombia.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
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A lot depends on whether the U.S. actually sends military support, OR how much Maduro's people THINK the U.S. has or will send support. Look at what happened at the border: you had a couple hundred of Venezuela's army and national police surrendering themselves the drop of a hat to Colombian authorities, partly because of the perceived threat of U.S. backing and partly because they are hungry, their families are hungry, they have no money and they are no longer willing to support Maduro.

The fact that Maduro had to release prisoners from jail and send them to the border to assist the army tells you how little support he has. With such little support, it's not going to take a lot to topple him. The mere threat of some U.S. troops (or U.S. backed Colombian troops) might be sufficient. Those Chavistas are die-hard Maduro supporters, but they are also suffering from hunger. At the end of the day, most people are swayed by this last thing rather than by an ideology.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Canada
4,811 posts, read 4,431,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
I wonder where the people of Latin America's sympathy lays though. Good on Mexico for respecting non intervention in the affairs of another country.


Full marks to Uruguay, one of my favourite nations in those parts, with a great history of democracy to refusing to support the fiasco unfolding in Venezuela.


Goes without saying, the two last left countries of the region, Bolivia and Cuba would back present government.
Not surprising either Colombia or Brazil, both well to the Right, would do otherwise than further the flames.


Obviously, the nation cannot last with sanctions imposed, a currency depreciation and inflation worsening by the day, outside calls for a coup. The power massing against this proud country from outside, will prove impossible to push back, unless outside intervention, which come to think of it, did prevent regime fall in Syria.


Amazingly most the armed forces remain loyal to the allegiance they swore to uphold. (for now) Which is rather more than the power seeking 'alternative' fellow in waiting.
Yeah the Lima group is a joke. It is actually quite laughable the Lima group are shown in international media as countries concerned about human rights in Venezuela. I am still waiting for them to say something about the crisis in Honduras and Haiti. lol
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Canada
4,811 posts, read 4,431,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 80skeys View Post
A lot depends on whether the U.S. actually sends military support, OR how much Maduro's people THINK the U.S. has or will send support. Look at what happened at the border: you had a couple hundred of Venezuela's army and national police surrendering themselves the drop of a hat to Colombian authorities, partly because of the perceived threat of U.S. backing and partly because they are hungry, their families are hungry, they have no money and they are no longer willing to support Maduro.
.
Those soldiers are really just a drop in the bucket. Maduro is not a military man and does not have the same respect and connection to the army as Chavez had. If they(the army) were really that pissed off they would have gotten rid of Maduro already. It still might happen. That is the only way to end this without much blood shed. Anti Chavistas, even backed by US support would suffer heavy casualties. The US would have to get involved directly to make it quick. We have seen this play out before in other places.
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Old 02-26-2019, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
5,802 posts, read 9,467,884 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanLuis View Post
Those soldiers are really just a drop in the bucket.
It's not the quantity that matter, it's the fact of what they did. It means there's a lot more who will do the same thing. Why surrender at all at the border? There wasn't any immediate need for them to do that. They did it because they're tired and they're looking for a better life. You don't seriously think those couple hundred are the only ones in that boat?

Quote:
If they(the army) were really that pissed off they would have gotten rid of Maduro already.
The population was pushed past the tipping point before higher ups in government/army are. But things change even for them. If it looks like the economic situation is not improving, if it looks like international pressure is too much, sanctions are making things worse, the split government, threat of outside military or subversive involvement, the families of the people in the army are still starving. These are all mounting pressures.

Quote:
It still might happen. That is the only way to end this without much blood shed. Anti Chavistas, even backed by US support would suffer heavy casualties. The US would have to get involved directly to make it quick.
For it to end quickly, maybe. But I think you're putting too much faith in Chavistas to fight to the bitter end. If you present any group of people with economic incentives, they will abandon their ideologies.
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