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Old 03-03-2019, 11:10 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
I do know what individual sanctions are meant to work, perhaps you could give an example where such a 'targeted' policy has worked in the past? As I mentioned, curtailing any financial transactions to Venezuela, will/has resulted in further economic hardship of an already increasingly impoverished population, resulting in ever more leaving in an attempt to survive.


I fully know the reasons why Russia and China don't want the government to fall. Just as I am equally aware of why the Americans want it to fall. Regardless of the chaos and 'style' of next government, as long as it is in any way to the left.


The end result being of course, is that Venezuela, will be 'forced' to become completely compliant to the demands of Russia and China, who I have little doubt, will pay the price it takes, to ensure a permanent, foothold on the South American continent and go on to influence other countries over time, creating a anti American 'wedge' . Potential of shades of Cuban crisis back in 62, just worse.
Maduroís regime will fall. Russia and China donít have enough to keep Venezuela going.
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Old 03-04-2019, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
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Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
Maduroís regime will fall. Russia and China donít have enough to keep Venezuela going.
Russia certainly does not. China could if they wanted, but they're not going to meddle too much.
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Old 03-04-2019, 04:17 PM
 
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Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
Maduroís regime will fall. Russia and China donít have enough to keep Venezuela going.
Any likelihood being more that of more chaos, crime, corruption and on going instability. Russia, is a long way from source. It depends to what extent they are prepared to back present government. China as well.


A sorry state of affairs with self interest on all sides. Decades of instability looks to be in the making.
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Old 03-04-2019, 04:22 PM
 
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Originally Posted by 80skeys View Post
Russia certainly does not. China could if they wanted, but they're not going to meddle too much.
It wouldn't take too much to ensure ongoing instability. None will likely put boots on the ground, obviously, but it may well take a lot of American money, to keep what is likely to be an unpopular regime in power, if indeed it does come down to exchange of Left for Right wing regime change.
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Old 03-04-2019, 07:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
It wouldn't take too much to ensure ongoing instability. None will likely put boots on the ground, obviously, but it may well take a lot of American money, to keep what is likely to be an unpopular regime in power, if indeed it does come down to exchange of Left for Right wing regime change.
Except the US administration and Trump would put boots on the ground, and neither Russia nor China care that much.

When the US and France decided to destroy Gaddafi's military and government in a air campaign, neither China nor Russia did anything.

Of course something like this would definitely cause considerable instability in Venezuela, which is why Trump is willing to see if diplomatic pressure won't remove Maduro first.

But if he comes to it, they will use military force. Like Libya, like Panama, etc.
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Old 03-04-2019, 10:50 PM
 
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And Libya turned out well, didn't it. (sarcasm) Panama? No real comparison in size, population or military strength. What makes you think Russia/China would forfeit a base of influence on the South American continent? A very useful and strategic location to be sure. Russia, I would suggest is not the same nation as it was during the final years of being the Soviet Union. ( a time when Soviet forces took a pounding in Afghanistan and the economy was a mess)
Today Russia, is battle hardened. Just came out on top in Syria. Annexing Crimea, and not long ago ended the strive the Caucuses through use of overwhelming power.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:15 AM
 
24,192 posts, read 17,574,394 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
And Libya turned out well, didn't it. (sarcasm) Panama? No real comparison in size, population or military strength. What makes you think Russia/China would forfeit a base of influence on the South American continent? A very useful and strategic location to be sure. Russia, I would suggest is not the same nation as it was during the final years of being the Soviet Union. ( a time when Soviet forces took a pounding in Afghanistan and the economy was a mess)
Today Russia, is battle hardened. Just came out on top in Syria. Annexing Crimea, and not long ago ended the strive the Caucuses through use of overwhelming power.
Russia has no support from other South American nations who are ALL US allies, and the right wing has come to power across pretty much all of South America. So they are certainly cooperating with the US in pushing Maduro out of power. Venezuela's immediate neighbors have right wing governments (Colombia and Brazil), as right wing governments have come to power across Latin America. There's been a massive backlash against the left.

Russians do not care about Venezuelans.

Plenty of socialist governments have been forced out of power in Latin America. Salvador Allende in Chile is one of them.

Crimea was historically a part of Russia and full of ethnic Russians who wanted to be with Russia.

Maduro is going down like Lewinsky on Bill.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:44 AM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
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Originally Posted by the troubadour View Post
A sorry state of affairs with self interest on all sides. Decades of instability looks to be in the making.
I see the opposite. A new kind of stability right around the corner.
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:47 AM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NyWriterdude View Post
When the US and France decided to destroy Gaddafi's military and government in a air campaign, neither China nor Russia did anything.
Russia hasn't had the power to for many years. China has both the money and the power but their mentality is different. They play a long game and they're not particularly aggressive militarily.
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Old 03-05-2019, 03:08 AM
 
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Originally Posted by 80skeys View Post
I see the opposite. A new kind of stability right around the corner.
Last thing I would imagine is stability. Quite the contrary.
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