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Old 11-25-2023, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
29,543 posts, read 18,441,944 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suesbal View Post
Considering the deep influence Peronism has on Argentina, I doubt he will be able to accomplish much.
It would take a long commitment to really change it hope they can do it, right now Argentina is a hot mess economically.
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Old 11-27-2023, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Fortaleza, Northeast of Brazil
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I have no crystal ball, but I have a slight feeling that Milei's government will end not very differently of how the governemnt of Fernando de la Rúa ended in December 2001...
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Old 11-27-2023, 11:17 AM
 
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The WaPo has an article today, link here (paywall), bemoaning that the newly elected Javier Milei intends to try the same sort of policies that have failed in the past.

Here are some excerpts:

Quote:
With no real party, legislative majority or administrative experience, Milei will be forced to compromise to get anything done. But it’s mainly precedent, not pragmatism, that threatens his success. His program has been tried at least twice before, with terrible costs for Argentina. To prevail this time, Milei will have to defeat history itself.

The last Argentine military dictatorship came to power with the slogan “Downsizing the state is making the nation bigger.” Its minister of economy, José Alfredo Martinez de Hoz, was a pre-Thatcher neoliberal who tried to deregulate the economy only for it to end up in disaster. In the 1990s, President Carlos Menem tried the same using a different political formula: He forced his own movement, Peronism, to embrace its historical nemesis, neoliberalism. His longest-serving minister of economy, Domingo Cavallo, deregulated the economy, while pegging the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar to tame inflation. These policies resulted in the dramatic crisis of 2001-2002, with private savings frozen, the peso devalued and more than half the country living under the poverty line.

Milei’s solution for the crisis — as far as he has revealed — is some version of neoliberal shock therapy, with deregulation and draconian cuts to public spending. As noted, this has all been done before: Milei admires the Menem-Cavallo administration above all others. But he can’t ask for international loans to finance those reforms. Argentina is still barely making payments to the IMF, and no bank will lend the country a dollar. So Milei, like Menem-Cavallo, wants to sell off the few state-owned companies still standing. This, however, will take time — time that the crisis might not give him.
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Old 11-27-2023, 11:22 AM
 
Location: Somewhere on the Moon.
9,671 posts, read 14,499,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
It would take a long commitment to really change it hope they can do it, right now Argentina is a hot mess economically.
So things are normal in Argentina.

It amazes me how Argentina is still able to have the standards of living that it does, still among the most developed in Latin America. The country that has had the most economic crises (not counting the meltdowns of places like Cuba and the meltdown on steroids of Venezuela.)
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Old 11-27-2023, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioR View Post
So things are normal in Argentina.

It amazes me how Argentina is still able to have the standards of living that it does, still among the most developed in Latin America. The country that has had the most economic crises (not counting the meltdowns of places like Cuba and the meltdown on steroids of Venezuela.)
Probably has to do with the industriousness of the citizens. I would say the same about Mexico, they have to overcome the bad government much more that we in the US or Canada have to. I worked in Peru for 18 months but never made it to Argentina which I regret, still would love to take a trip there.
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Old 11-28-2023, 09:21 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioR View Post
So things are normal in Argentina.

It amazes me how Argentina is still able to have the standards of living that it does, still among the most developed in Latin America. The country that has had the most economic crises (not counting the meltdowns of places like Cuba and the meltdown on steroids of Venezuela.)
Because Argentina is a country that effectively produces, it has a diversified economy, it produces a lot in agricultural exports, but not only that, it is also significantly industrialized, it has well-developed service and tourism industries. This means that the majority of the economically active population is producing and employed in the real microeconomy.
Another factor is that Argentina heavily subsidizes the poorest, and has good healthcare and free education, including university.
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Old 11-28-2023, 09:33 AM
 
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Brazil and most South American countries had the same problems as Argentina in the 80s and 90s of hyperinflation, and then a lack of dollars due to having negative trade balances and high external debt in the early 2000s.
With the enormous Chinese growth driving the commodities boom, all these countries received the gift of an increase in prices and demand for commodities, which enabled foreign currency surpluses.
Countries such as Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia and Peru took advantage of this moment to pay their external debts and accumulate large international reserves of a basket of foreign currencies, stabilizing their economies instead.
Argentina chose to continue spending on raising the standard of living for a while.
They are like middle-class people who have had a sudden drop in income and cannot lower their standard of living.
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Old 11-28-2023, 08:04 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AntonioR View Post
I think it depends on the country. It's safe to say that more Venezuelans feel sorry for electing Hugo Chávez in the 1990's (or was it in the 2000's?) and he was from the far left. Well, if he promised change, he gave Venezuela what he promised.

Be careful what you wish for. Sometimes what isn't said is the most important.
Not sure this is the best example. Chavez was very popular, and I would wager is still viewed favorably amongst Venezuelans. The Venezuelan economy performed very good under his leadership. Now we can argue this was due more to the price of oil and gas at the time, but if he would have been blamed for things going wrong (as you appear to be doing now), he has to get credit for things that went right.
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Old 11-28-2023, 08:07 PM
 
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What amazes me about Latin American countries is how they can swing from far left to far right in leadership. Here in the U.S. we typically just cycle from slightly left of center to slightly right of center. Every now and then we get a Trump or Regan figure who is more in-between slight and far right.
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Old 11-28-2023, 11:09 PM
 
1,409 posts, read 1,321,557 times
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I may go to Argentina instead of my third trip to Colombia. I heard, when Greece went to the Euro it was like hitting a light switch...never cheap again...would hate to see that in Argentina. Good beer, good steak..how bad could it be?
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