Are housing prices coming down in AZ like they are in NJ? (Phoenix: real estate)

[Nancy Lynne]

I am taking a significant loss on the sale of my house here and the market is flooded with houses for sale. On the other hand, I did sell my house, because I offered it at a reasonable price and acceptable an extremely reasonable offer (under valuation). In many parts of the country this is happening? Is it happening in AZ as well?

[Cin]

Nancy....YES!!!!! My house is for sale amongst a zillion others in the area...and none are selling unless they are a DEAL.(and when I say deal ...I mean letting an investor have it at a huge loss way under appraisal) I would have listed my house at 339.9 just 9 months ago and now I have it listed at 309.9....just a wee bit different. Supposedly we are done dropping....it is supposed to settle and slowly climb again...but that depends what you read.From what I hear it is fairly commom right now in markets that over inflated over the past 3 yrs....of course where I am trying to go that isn't the case...figures.

[humble101]

They will be dropping as much as 10 per cent in the next year or so. That is the standard speculation. Why? They overbuilt. Investors bought and sold and made 50 per cent profit and now they are flooded with houses. Simple! Now we have to wait for the next cycle of which there will be one in about six years. Everyone knows they can pick and choose now, so the surplus will have to be sold off to get back to some kind of an appreciation market.

I am looking to retire in two years and the timing couldn't be worse for me for this down turn.

[shariv]

I don't know about the Phoenix area but in northwestern Arizona I think they will drop far more than 10%. Prices here doubled and tripled in less than one year and have already dropped more than 10%.

[Ponderosa]

We were at a Halloween party and I was talking to a good friend/realtor who has been selling here for many, many years. She said homes have dropped 8-10% from peaks (30-60K). She says priced right they are still selling in our area, particulary if you have something special like a custom home, cul-de-sac, a desert preserve lot, a large lot etc, oasis backyard, nicely updated interior. On the other side, she said is it is hard to sell anything with only a two car garage. The highest priced homes are selling the best and retaining value the best. The new home guys have cut prices pretty much 10% and are starting to move houses - again where I live.

Real estate is local though. The Phoenix paper just published a price comparison by zip codes (not always reliable because it is not fine enough especially in newer areas) that showed most places down by at least 5-10% and some off as much as 38%. But some were up. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gilbert's stellar ranking for safety translate to an early stabilizing of prices there.

The economy is superb here. Half the stores I go in have help wanted signs on them. The classifieds are bulging with jobs. If the economy nationally and locally continues to perform as it has and interest rates stay low home prices should soon stabilize and gain traction. I don't think were looking at more than historical appreciation rates on average, but it'll keep up with inflation at least.

[cmist]

I would say Gilbert is one of the WORST places to buy right now. Don't count on early stabilization.

My friend has been a top selling realtor for 12 years and says that when buyers look for a home over there, they mostly just say they are looking for the "east valley".

All those east valley cities have NO defining element to them... so what you get is this sea of identical homes for miles & miles in all directions with no real reason to pick one over the other except for street location & price. They are all built by all the same builders. You will see exact replica floorplans in all of these cities by the truckloads.

The only homes that will fare well are homes that can't be duplicated, like maybe a lakefront home in "the islands" or a home with a huge lot and well done pool which can also be hard to come by.

If someone was to find a home closer in with a better commute route than Gilbert for a better price, there is no reason to drive further down the dreaded US60 just to be in Gilbert. You can find all the same exact chain stores & restaurants every few miles no matter where you go out there.

Most buyers also prefer the Kyrene school district too, and for that reason, Chandler/Tempe will stabilize far before Gilbert due to an easier commute and better known school district. Gilbert had its boom back when people were moving out of the older parts of town to buy a 3000 sqft new home on a nice size lot for $179K like 5-6 years ago or more. Now I don't see why anyone would want to pay $300K+ for some boring 1600sqft. home on a tiny lot out there, when they can find an exact replica in a closer east valley city, thats just as safe, with an easier commute.

Now thats the honest truth coming straight from a no BS top selling realtor, and not someone that is currently trying to sell their Gilbert home.

If you want an area that has more scenery and is more than just flat gridded up old farmland as far as the eye can see, look into North Peoria where there are mountains, 20 mins to lake pleasant, all the same things you find out there but more scenic.

Also, the people on the NW side seem to be a little more laid back, such as people that may have money but don't flaunt it around, whereas the east valley crowd seems very fast paced... and actually even a little stuck up on their area for no apparant reason.

All I mean by that is I live in N. Peoria in an awesome home & area, but I can see the appeal of all different parts of the valley, and I would recommend more than just MY area for an idea to someone that is asking.

For instance...
I would recommend to stay out of central Phx, unless you have big bucks but don't mind being in a single ritzy pocket surrounded by gang areas and shopping at Southwest Supermarkets... locals know what I mean.

I would definitely pick the better parts of Tempe/Chandler/Ahwatukee for East Valley and if you find a STEAL in Gilbert than go for it. Its not bad there, but no reason to go the distance if you find something nicer closer.

NO to Apache Junction - great scenery but too many trailers & meth problems and too far, Also, Mesa is really spotty so probably stay out of there unless you are in far northeast mesa near the red mountain thing, but that is still pretty far.

Now for West Valley, No to Surprise/Buckeye/Avondale/Goodyear for commuting reasons and for the same reason I advise against the east valley.
Surprise and those parts of the SW valley are all too blending with no real defining reason to pick one over another. You will always be facing tremendous competition on the resale market. And of course, forget about El Mirage...

The best parts of the W. Valley are N. Glendale and N. Peoria N. of Bell Rd. and some parts of N. Phoenix too would be other good picks. This is probably info overload, but for the sake of the original person asking for a rounded out idea, I really felt the need to give more options.

You really should have a good realtor to help you understand whats overpriced and whats not. Don't count on desperate home sellers in this forum to give you honest info. Let me know if you need a good realtor...

[Bossanovawitcha]

Gilbert is one of the best places to buy right now. Generally, values lie in good school districts, and Gilbert has arguably the best in the Valley overall.

No matter where you buy, try to get something under appraisal, or make realtors cut their commissions. CNN/Money listed the Phoenix market with likely 9% left to depreciate to come in line with economic norms (affordability index, population growth, demand). That 9% average could mean 5% in Gilbert/Tempe/Chandler, but more like 15% in Queen Creek, Surprise, etc with less infrastructure and demand.

[cmist]

As you said Gilbert is ARGUABLY the best school district.

I will say its a good school district that is just AS GOOD as Peoria, Kyrene, PV and the Scottsdale district too...

I have a career which has me traveling all around meeting people from all over the valley and in casual conversation see ALOT of nice areas and ask them what they think of the area, the schools, etc. and each one of them will tell you that THEIR area is the best...

I don't go into houses into all these districts and find that everyone here is envious of the Gilbert school system. Everyone that stays in their little community bubbles talks to all the same people in the same bubble and thinks that their area is "the best", but when asked "why" the answers are the same answers everywhere... "the park is down the street, the neighbors are friendly, their building a new blah blah blah over there, we hate to leave the area, everyone hates to see us go too but... yada yada yada"

The simple answer is live as close as possible to where you need to work, and if your work is not in the east valley, don't feel like you are being robbed from some rich cultural experience in flat old farmland Gilbert AZ.

Schools are equally praised in many parts of the valley, and it wouldn't be so terrible to have to live in a mountainous new area of Peoria with equally great schools & parks down the road with the new blah blah blah getting built and the wonderful neighbors that the sellers just hate to leave, etc.

But yes, stay out of the outskirts like Queen Creek, Surprise, unless you get such a steal you can't pass it up.

[sweattea]

All those east valley cities have NO defining element to them... so what you get is this sea of identical homes for miles & miles in all directions with no real reason to pick one over the other except for street location & price. They are all built by all the same builders. You will see exact replica floorplans in all of these cities by the truckloads.


Same thing on in Peoria. Same builders same homes as far as the eye can see.


The simple answer is live as close as possible to where you need to work, and if your work is not in the east valley, don't feel like you are being robbed from some rich cultural experience in flat old farmland Gilbert AZ.


There's no rich cultural experience on that side of town either. I would say people are friendlier up there and less stuck up I agree. But the way you descibe Gilbert with such venom it is because you are jealous we made one of the top safest cities? Chill a little bit on Gilbert it's a preferance. This whole valley is an endless sea of identical cookie cutter homes. Even beloved Scottsdale same homes twice as expensive.

[Boatdrinks]

There's no rich cultural experience on that side of town either. I would say people are friendlier up there and less stuck up I agree. But the way you descibe Gilbert with such venom it is because you are jealous we made one of the top safest cities? Chill a little bit on Gilbert it's a preferance. This whole valley is an endless sea of identical cookie cutter homes. Even beloved Scottsdale same homes twice as expensive.[/quote]




That is SO true! The west valley looks JUST like the east valley - the houses look the same, neighborhoods look the same, strip malls look the same...it's crazy to say the west valley is any different. The same builders are building in the east and west valleys and they're all building the same models in both valleys.

The only difference between the east and west valley is that the west valley has the football stadium...and it's closer to CA, for all the Californians who've moved here and drive back to see family and friends.

Oh, and I agree that there's a bit of a snob factor here in Chandler and Gilbert. A few years ago, I read that people were referring to Chandler as "The New Scottsdale." I've found that to ring pretty true as it relates to peoples' attitudes....they tend to flaunt their money a lot here. We had friends from Seattle in town this week and we went to Chandler Fashion Center. They all commented on how "made up" all the women were, all carrying their Coach bags and wearing their designer clothes. I haven't found that to be the case in the west valley, though I'll admit I don't spend much time there.

In my opinion, there are VERY few unique areas in the Phoenix area, and I wouldn't include the east valley OR the west valley on that list. I will say, though, that I like Chandler and Gilbert very much. I've lived in both cities and have had great experiences in both areas. While we have our share of snobby people here, most people are VERY nice and we've really enjoyed it here.