Arizona's Population Growth Diminishing (Phoenix, Chandler: rent, vehicle registration, home sales)

[myers411]

Originally Posted by azjack

"Arizona's population is expanding at the slowest rate since the last real-estate-led recession in 1990, new figures show.

Arizona grew by 1.6 percent, or about 100,000 residents, during the past year, according to U.S. Census data analyzed by University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest. That's less than half the growth rate of just two years ago. Most of today's growth can be attributed to births, which are outpacing deaths, rather than from new residents."

State's population growth now at a crawl

Hey, does anyone have the stats or data on which Phoenix Metro area zip codes have the heaviest and most educated internet users.

Who's on the internet for research and information -vs- gaming and shopping? Is the valley getting younger and more educated or is it the
40 to 70 year olds getting more saavy & sophisticated?

[shiphead]

Originally Posted by myers411

Hey, does anyone have the stats or data on which Phoenix Metro area zip codes have the heaviest and most educated internet users.

Who's on the internet for research and information -vs- gaming and shopping? Is the valley getting younger and more educated or is it the
40 to 70 year olds getting more saavy & sophisticated?

It might be both. There are school's all over Maricopa county and i use the internet for all sorts of information for papers i need to get done for college. Then there are the older folks that use these very forums.

[_Charles_]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

In ZIP 85014 which includes 12th St/E Indian School...........I saw a single family home going for under $30K on realtor.com. That same place back in 2005 would have fetched ca. $90K IMHO.

Actually at the height of the bubble it would have been closer to $180k. Zip 85014 is my area.

[_Charles_]

Phoenix has approx 1.4 million now (factoring in illegals). The city proper encompasses 520 square miles and stretches north and south from the Yavapai county line to the Salt River Indian Community
(40 miles) and east and west from Scottsdale and Tempe to Glendale (13 miles).

The metro area encompassing Phoenix and all of the surrounding areas stretches from Surprise in the west to Gilbert in the east, Carefree in the north to Queen Creek in the south is approximately 2000 square miles.
As of this year there are approximately 4 million living in the area. An annual growth of 1% still adds another 40,000 each year resulting in another 400,000 over the next decade.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

Actually at the height of the bubble it would have been closer to $180k. Zip 85014 is my area.

Oh My God!

[43north87west]

Originally Posted by azjack

"Arizona's population is expanding at the slowest rate since the last real-estate-led recession in 1990, new figures show.

Arizona grew by 1.6 percent, or about 100,000 residents, during the past year, according to U.S. Census data analyzed by University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest. That's less than half the growth rate of just two years ago. Most of today's growth can be attributed to births, which are outpacing deaths, rather than from new residents."

State's population growth now at a crawl

I don't mean this as a stab at the OP or the economist who ran the numbers, but is this even newsworthy? Aside from the specifics, this is Recession 101. Growth slows. Phoenix only shed a big percentage of growth because it had extraordinary growth to begin with.

Overall this is just one of several per capita indicators that point to larger issues, which we've known about for some time. To me, this just illustrates the size of the previous boom, rather than an issue of sustainability.

[actinic]

Recession will hit AZ harder than other states for years to come.

Retirees will still move here but the decline in the younger workforce due to job availability means retirees will be overrepresented which does not bode well for sustainability, ie school taxes, roads, civic involvement, etc.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by 43north87west

I don't mean this as a stab at the OP or the economist who ran the numbers, but is this even newsworthy? Aside from the specifics, this is Recession 101. Growth slows. Phoenix only shed a big percentage of growth because it had extraordinary growth to begin with.

Overall this is just one of several per capita indicators that point to larger issues, which we've known about for some time. To me, this just illustrates the size of the previous boom, rather than an issue of sustainability.

Originally Posted by actinic

Recession will hit AZ harder than other states for years to come.

Retirees will still move here but the decline in the younger workforce due to job availability means retirees will be overrepresented which does not bode well for sustainability, ie school taxes, roads, civic involvement, etc.

This recession (or possible depression) is arguably the worst one since the 1930's.

[43north87west]

Originally Posted by actinic

Recession will hit AZ harder than other states for years to come.

Retirees will still move here but the decline in the younger workforce due to job availability means retirees will be overrepresented which does not bode well for sustainability, ie school taxes, roads, civic involvement, etc.

That's true, retirees are exempt from property, real estate, income, and sales taxes. They use no services or utilities, don't need any health care, don't eat, don't build homes, don't drive, don't bank, don't invest, don't travel, and don't shop.

Run while you can!!!

Seriously, wasn't this how it was before hundreds of thousands--maybe millions--of people realized that they could buy a home with a built-in ATM with free money in it? The cost of living here is cheaper than many other places, real estate is getting cheaper fast, and the rust belt isn't exactly booming either. Plus, why did people move to Phoenix to begin with? It wasn't because of the oil wells, or the coal mines, or the steel industry, or the UAW jobs, or the great agriculture, or the international business. So these things haven't been lost.

There are many areas in the country where negative population growth is a reality. Areas where the core industries are not going to make it. That is a sustainability problem. Unless you're talking about "sustaining" a breakneck pace of development and infrastructure. In that context, the Valley is not "sustainable". Frenzied growth will not come back anytime soon.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by 43north87west

Run while you can!!!

Yep, retirees do not have a vested interest in the future to the degree younger folks do. This is a given.