Looking for land in AZ (Mesa, Scottsdale: renting, crime, neighborhoods)

[exlexisnexis]

Pettix, I agree with several points you made but am unable to get you to see the positive aspects of this area,You are only looking at the negative.
Here are some positive aspects
1. weather (mild 4 seasons)
2.growth coming from 3 directions Williams,Chino Valley, and Kingman
3. close proximity to the new Theme Park
4. millions of new residents of Arizona will want 2nd homes in Northern Arizona over the next 10-20 years as the state population doubles and Williams and Prescott are almost built out and will be to expensive for most people but the Ashfork and Seilgman areas are relatively affordable.
5. no natural disasters and reduced risk of terrorism in this area
I have watched areas like Maricopa, Buckeye and Queencreek turn from dust to gold and they had none of the beauty of Ashfork why is it so hard for you to see the potential of this beautiful area? I did not say it woyuld happen overnight but I am 100% convinced it will happen.

[exlexisnexis]

Just a mention about Queen creek, I visited queen Creek 2 years ago and it had all these homes that had 1 acre minimums and they had old cars and junk in thier yard and I was really turned off and I did not invest there. Several months later you could not touch a 1 acre lot for less than 100k.You scratch your head ask yourself why? Then you go right back to the formula Location,location,location.

[shariv]

Originally Posted by Pettrix

Ash Fork & Seligman have NEVER been a key location spot. NEVER. The only time Ash Fork was "popular" was back when Route 66 was running. Even then it was just a small town stop. Since Route 66 CLOSED it has all but gone down hill.

Route 66 is CLOSED. That must be a surprise to the people that travel it every day. Including tourists that come from other countries.

[LBear]

The problem is this:

I don't know how long you have been living in Ash Fork but the phrase, "Ash Fork will be the next hot spot" has been toted for decades. They said the same thing about Mayer. "It will be the next hot spot, location, location. It is only 15 miles from Prescott."

What happened? Mayer is still old Mayer. The town is "nicer" than Ash Fork, that is for sure, but it is NOT the "hot spot" it was supposed to be. PRESCOTT, which is the "Beverly Hills" of the area, is only 15 minutes away from Mayer , yet Mayer has not moved anywhere. Why?? The same problem that Ash Fork has, NO INFASTRUCTURE, BAD HOUSING, BAD REGULATIONS, NO DOWNTOWN, MOBILES, NO STORES, ETC.ETC.

If you have money $$ to play around with. Getting property in Ash Fork would be OK. At worst you will break even in the end. Even with the theme park, that business will remain in Williams, Ash Fork will not get a huge draw. Anyone who VISITS the area, will NOT want to live there, as has been shown by the many examples of people who did. Sure, there may be that person who is a loaner, then it appeals to them, but most people are scared away after driving thru the town. Which to me looks like inner-city Detroit slums.

[LBear]

Originally Posted by shariv

Route 66 is CLOSED. That must be a surprise to the people that travel it every day. Including tourists that come from other countries.

Please, you know what I mean.

Route 66 is NO LONGER a highway name. While the routes that Route 66 ONCE were, are now replaced by interstates and other highways. There is NO LONGER a road called Route 66, nor is it a continuos highway that it once was, it ceased/died. You have highways like the current I-40 that were once part of Route 66.

Yes, you can still drive on roads that were ONCE called Route 66 but the DIRECT ROUTE is NO LONGER available. That is why it is called "Historic Route 66" as it has gone the way of 8-tracks.

So, your sarcasm has fallen to deaf ears.

[exlexisnexis]

Pettrix, if you pick up any book on basic real estate investing it will always give you the same advice for succeeding in investing in raw land. Pick an area within commuting distance of a growing metropolis and wait,99 out of 100% of the time you will make a bundle once the folks cannot afford the metropolis or grow tired of the traffic or simply just want more home for thier money
Add that to these wonderful benefits and you have a diamond in the rough

1. weather (mild 4 seasons)
2.growth coming from 3 directions Williams,Chino Valley, and Kingman
3. close proximity to the new Theme Park
4. millions of new residents of Arizona will want 2nd homes in Northern Arizona over the next 10-20 years as the state population doubles and Williams and Prescott are almost built out and will be to expensive for most people but the Ashfork and Seilgman areas are relatively affordable.
5. no natural disasters and reduced risk of terrorism in this area

[exlexisnexis]

Pettrix, have you looked at land prices in Mayer lately in many cases it is 30-40k an acre this is not chump change.Do you know what it sold for 2-3 years ago? Try 2-3 thousand per acre in many cases. I will take that increase any day. I bought a piece of land in Chino 2 years and 8 months ago for 40k it is now worth 400k. If I was a betting man which I am not I would bet on Ashfork. Land always goes up in value it just is a matter of timing how quickly it goes up.

[LBear]

Originally Posted by exlexisnexis

I bought a piece of land in Chino 2 years and 8 months ago for 40k it is now worth 400k. If I was a betting man which I am not I would bet on Ashfork. Land always goes up in value it just is a matter of timing how quickly it goes up.

I don't disagree that land can and does increase in value. That is the basic real estate principle: 'that property will always increase in value with time.'

So, you experienced a 1,000% increase on your investment within almost 3 years?

Now any "investor" will tell you that not only is that NOT typical but it is almost impossible. Yes, it does happen but most investors are happy with 5%-10% annual return on investment.

In today's market you would have a VERY hard time selling that land. This will cause the prices to drop somewhat. The entire nation is seeing a real estate "bubble burst." This is a BUYERS MARKET. There will be a special NBC series on this issue this coming week. Some experts are saying that land in Northern AZ will tank in some areas as the buying "frenzy" of 2005 & early 2006 took over logic. Some areas experienced ridiculous price increases within a few years (as noted above). Some are saying that they will drop like rocks back to where they were BEFORE the buying frenzy. Areas that were always high-end/high-demand are going to hold their values (Prescott, Flagstaff & Williams) but IMHO, areas like Paulden, Mayer, Chino Valley, Ash Fork will experience HUGE CORRECTIONS. This is ALREADY happening in many areas. People are seeing 30%+ drops in pricing.

In the end, WE WILL HAVE TO AGREE TO DISAGREE , if I had $$$ to play with, I believe other investments would be more worthwhile than vacant land in Ash Fork. It is just that area has way too many negatives to deal with. JMO

Good luck with your investment....

[exlexisnexis]

My bank account hopes you are wrong.But it was good to get your feedback on the area, it gave me some food for thought.

Best Regards

Richard

[azloafer]

Originally Posted by bb5745

Thank you, that was very descriptive.

For anyone else who may have some suggestions, lets say we eliminate my original requirement for a Boulder/Austin type town. How about perhaps some smaller communities that may not have much nightlife, but just has a good mix of nice people? As I've been searching, it seems like the Prescott area would be close to what I'm looking for. Additionally, what do any of you know about the Southeastern area of AZ? A friend on mine suggested I look into this part of the state as there are many recreational opportunities there (beautiful hikes/mountains, etc...). He mentioned Bisbee in particular and as I've searched (online) it looks nice; apparently there's a small artist community in that area and a number of 'eclectic' locals. Any thoughts?

Two years ago I lived in a motor home in Bisbee for a month. I left because illegals kept coming up to me and begging. There is a real drug problem in Bisbee; I know this because I got to know the locals in the downtown area while I was there. The people that live there let their dogs run loose and I was attacked while walking my dog on three occasions. I resorted to pepper spray after that. Bisbee looks nice from a distance, it really does. Up close is a different story. Nice place to visit, but I wouldn't live there!