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Old 11-07-2012, 11:51 AM
 
111 posts, read 241,545 times
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A land of opportunities for the rich and looking forward to be richer.
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Old 11-08-2012, 06:36 AM
 
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There is a lot of optimism when looking at Asia from the outside. South Korea, Taiwan, and yes still Japan are among the most developed, most technologically advanced, most educated, and most safe countries around. Countries considered "developing" like Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and parts of China have a lot going for them, too. The US, where many of us are from, is stuck in place, is burdened by a belligerent ignorance and an aggressive militaristic attitude, and overall is asking the wrong questions about the future, which is why it inspires so much pessimism among us and around the world. We'll see if a bloated, sprawling country is even necessary in the future.

One challenge for the next generation or two in countries like Korea and Japan is a population decrease. Even though their population densities are already quite high, lower birthrates and an aging population mean we'll have to see how they deal with immigration.

Hate the term "developing" by the way, and it's about time the West stops looking down its nose at Asia and at countries that don't look the same as us. Also hate looking at countries and cultures as "markets" to be manipulated. There's a financial investment commercial on in the US now which does that very thing. We have a lot we can learn from Asian cultures and societies, and rather than simply looking to make a quick buck or million we could take some time to see what made them so successful and so comparatively safe.
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Old 11-10-2012, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Saudi Arabia
376 posts, read 556,519 times
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Default Mostly Yes & a little no

Quote:
Originally Posted by scubamaniac View Post
I've spent a lot of time overseas in Asia over the past few years. While i've been abroad i've noticed incredible development and economic progress in most asian nations across the board. It's pretty evident throughout SE Asia and of course mainland China. The economies are red hot. In one particular asian country i've resided in the middle class has made significant noticeable gains in quality and standard of living in just 5 years. While europe and the U.S. were crumbling housing in 2008 real estate has been rising steadily throughout Asia.

I've also noticed a lot of professional returnees too. Asian-americans and the like with professional degrees and backgrounds going to Asia to start up their businesses. It's a reverse brain drain. Some of them have made a mint in various industries without having to deal with the classic glass ceilings in the U.S.

Are we seeing a historical cycle here or passing of the torch? I feel in some ways the U.S. has reached a peak and it's on the decline. The death of the blue collar industry, the financial bust, class warfare, etc.. signals something much darker on the horizon for the U.S. and possibly the western world in general.
Yes motly because Asia has a huge portion of the world's population and has been underperming their capability for a long time. China has 4 times the US population but still has a lower GDP so they have a lot of catching up to do. India has almost 4 tiems the US population and nowwhere near the GDP so it would take 10 Indians to be a s productive as 1 American. therefore, there's so much room for growth.

However, China's 1 child policy means that they will have a huge problem with the retired vrsus working ratio in the coming decades and they also have along way to go with quality.

However, in housingChina has seen some huge dips and their stock market is very low compared the the US. Going to be interesting to see how things happen but I'm bullish overall on the growth of Asia economically in the next couple of decades.
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Old 11-16-2012, 06:39 AM
 
396 posts, read 731,037 times
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Yeah the demographics issue fascinates me.


Because simply put asia is the main source of the world's immigrants.


If asia is looking for immigrants the only logical source to meet the world's demand is africa.

It seems truly fascinating to me that immigration will be so wide spread, that no country will able to mono racial as it is today.

Anyhow I think asia will be the big swinger for the next 30 years, than it'll be africa.

You can't argue with numbers and technology. Political stability is becoming the norm across the globe, and thanks to information tech, government accountability has never been higher.

My prediction is that gdp per capita from richest to poorest, will have only a quarter of the range that it has now by 2085.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:47 PM
 
Location: The North
5,091 posts, read 9,113,290 times
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I find the concept about opportunity so misleading. Is there a lot of growth and upside? Without a doubt. Can a person or a company take advantage of it if they reside elsewhere? Not always, most actually fail. Its a mirage to say China is growing say 10% a year and think an outsider can find opportunities in that. Look at how every company of any size and some with very little heft have tried to "conquer" the China market. How many of them are truly making money by serving the market? Some of the few who have done well are global brands who make more money elsewhere but are teased by how much they could make if only China works out for them. In the meantime a lot of companies are squeezing out some modest profit not so much by running profitable Chinese businesses, but by winning when it comes to things like favorable changes in currency or real estate prices increasing. Then when they realize they are over their heads they can sell out at an even higher price to the latest businesses seduced by China.

This isn't really opportunity, its just economics playing out as you should expect it. China's growth is going to be dynamic and ever changing. There are large constituencies of people who are constantly going to win and then lose. The fear of today's winners trying to block progress so they don't become tomorrow's losers is a big part of why the current government is in some ways a necessary evil. Look at how India and its dysfunctional government and economy have all the makings of even better prospects and yet entrenched interests backing established political parties hold the country back. So what we will really see is China as a whole moving forward, but most citizens feeling like they aren't really winning because at some point their interests won't be served. Is that big opportunity or is that simply a slow progression from really bad to somewhat better living standards?
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:56 PM
 
Location: Peoria, IL
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It is not impossible to happen.
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Old 11-21-2012, 01:44 PM
 
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The developed western economies have all had almost saturated markets. When nearly everybody have shelter, food & clean water, health, education & other government services, household appliances & cars; that is pretty much a saturated market.

When a developing market becomes a near saturated market, and efficiency keeps improving rapidly, where would new jobs come from? Why would old jobs not be shed?

This was why jobs started to varnish in developed markets, and the best places to create new jobs are in developing markets. Developing markets need purchasing power, so it makes sense to create jobs there so that their people have money to spend and buy what they produce.

But because the world so so technologically advanced, new markets get advanced matured products very quickly whereas it would have taken centuries/millennia in earlier times. So they get saturated very very quickly.

So, when every market get saturated, where would employment come from?

This is not a problem really, because if everybody does not need to buy much anymore, there is only a small need to produce stuff. No point in producing stuff when people don't need them.

But doesn't that mean mass employment across the whole world?

My answer to that is that people only need to work a little to live. Utopia!

So yes indeed, Asia is the new land of opportunity in the 21st century. But notice how small their houses are, their markets are going to be saturated in record short time.

The Americas & Australia have huge amount of space per person, & they have huge houses. So can they follow the Consumer Economics trajectory without destroying or exhausting the planet of natural resources? That is the crucial question.

I don't believe that human happiness & fulfilment is anchored in consuming stuff in order that everyone has to work.
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