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View Poll Results: Can North Korea and South Korea merge?
Yes 35 62.50%
No 21 37.50%
Voters: 56. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-14-2012, 12:55 AM
 
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Don't forget the fact that with China's rising economic power, this unification won't happen anytime soon. China also doesn't want more of its neighbors to become pro-american, especially N.Korea.
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Old 12-14-2012, 12:30 PM
 
Location: In the heights
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Per capita, the number of North Koreans in "work camps" or any other form of incarceration is smaller than the number of Americans who are incarcerated, half of them for non-violent crimes, and tens of thousands of whom are simply accused and awaiting trial.
Are prisons the same thing as work camps? The tens of thousands are still going to get due process. I don't see these as equivalent. I also don't see particularly strong signs of famine whether in the US's general population or its prison population.
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Old 12-14-2012, 12:46 PM
 
Location: In the heights
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Originally Posted by drshang View Post
My guess is, if Korea were to "unify" there would be some kind of seminal event that would precede unification. The most likely scenarios in my mind would be some kind of political uprising or coup, or some kind of war that resulted in NK surrender.

Calling it "unification" is perhaps a bit inaccurate since I don't think there would be much more than SK culture/society annexing NK as basically a territory acquisition. In the long run this should significantly benefit both countries, and I don't see how you can possibly take some kind of average of the two and really "unify" them in the true meaning of the word. This is just not going to be politically palatable by any country in the world, except perhaps China.

I do agree with others that there will be some major change at some point and the two countries will become one. A scenario that no one has mentioned in this thread that could be a catalyst is if China becomes a democracy and the government in that country essentially becomes unsupportive of North Korea. The government in the PRC seems to have an increasingly icy relationship with the North Koreans, and that could play a factor in a variety of "end game" scenarios.
What about China having to step in if North Korea is particularly unstable and ends up loosely in control of North Korea?
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Old 12-14-2012, 12:55 PM
Status: "I hate living in Georgia!!" (set 15 days ago)
 
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It can happen. Both Koreas are divided based on political ideologies. It can happen. Both Koreas coming together can happen. However, it won't be easy. It will require a revolution. The Reunification of Germany occurred because the Berlin Wall came down, and the people revolted against it. This too will require a revolt. In theory, it can happen. It reality, the reunification of both Koreas can happen, but it is going to take alot of work. I would think that the condition of North Korea, a revolt would have happened by now. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I'm saying that it needs to happen.
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Old 12-14-2012, 01:52 PM
 
Location: Seattle
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Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
What about China having to step in if North Korea is particularly unstable and ends up loosely in control of North Korea?
I think this is an interesting point, but I also think it's really unlikely. China simply has too much to lose by going all in on North Korea, and the rest of the world has a strong motivation to ensure this doesn't happen. While I think China would prefer this scenario, the risk/reward is just unfavorable in my mind.

China simply has too much underdeveloped land internally and would gain too little by annexing North Korea at the expense of possible domestic instability and international sanctions/lost credibility. China simply needs to tote a fine line between being "open" enough to trade with external trading partners and develop an economic base, but being "closed" enough to keep their government under control of the population. The country does not need to draw attention to itself by trying to go after North Korea too aggressively.
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Old 12-14-2012, 02:01 PM
 
Location: In the heights
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drshang View Post
I think this is an interesting point, but I also think it's really unlikely. China simply has too much to lose by going all in on North Korea, and the rest of the world has a strong motivation to ensure this doesn't happen. While I think China would prefer this scenario, the risk/reward is just unfavorable in my mind.

China simply has too much underdeveloped land internally and would gain too little by annexing North Korea at the expense of possible domestic instability and international sanctions/lost credibility. China simply needs to tote a fine line between being "open" enough to trade with external trading partners and develop an economic base, but being "closed" enough to keep their government under control of the population. The country does not need to draw attention to itself by trying to go after North Korea too aggressively.
I wasn't thinking so much annexation as I am thinking of puppet state.
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Old 12-14-2012, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Seattle
1,366 posts, read 2,930,163 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
I wasn't thinking so much annexation as I am thinking of puppet state.
I think the same logic applies to a puppet state too though, they just have too much to lose and not enough to gain by pushing the envelope with NK. The US and most of the rest of the world will still view a puppet state as de facto annexation. It seems to me that China is going in the opposite direction and have attempted to distance themselves from NK to a degree. I don't really see that changing.
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Old 12-14-2012, 05:14 PM
 
Location: Cary, NC
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It would be amazing if they could. The people are the same. The leadership is quite different.
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Old 12-15-2012, 02:22 AM
 
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There are numerous articles out there on why the neighboring giants would not want a unified Korea.

China - would not want a huge US ally at its doorstep. If NK was gonads China would lose influence over being a mediator for a problem child to the world.
Japan - if unified Korea would have the manpower/labour to surpass Japan even faster as an economy
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Old 12-15-2012, 06:08 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,609 posts, read 3,153,315 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
It can happen. Both Koreas are divided based on political ideologies. It can happen. Both Koreas coming together can happen. However, it won't be easy. It will require a revolution. The Reunification of Germany occurred because the Berlin Wall came down, and the people revolted against it. This too will require a revolt. In theory, it can happen. It reality, the reunification of both Koreas can happen, but it is going to take alot of work. I would think that the condition of North Korea, a revolt would have happened by now. I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I'm saying that it needs to happen.
My thoughts too. In the ~45 years of Soviet domination numerous revolts happened in the Warsaw-pact countries, like in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and finally everywhere in 1989. Nothing seems to be going on in North Korea.
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