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Old 05-02-2013, 04:52 PM
 
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From what I've heard, the cell phone is beginning to penetrate North Korea. 2 million of them are now used. Is the regime's days numbered? And what will happen? Will they reunify with the South? Will they become an autonomous region of the People's Republic of China?
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Old 05-02-2013, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Texas
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North Korea is expected to stay where it is.
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Old 05-02-2013, 09:31 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belmont22 View Post
From what I've heard, the cell phone is beginning to penetrate North Korea. 2 million of them are now used. Is the regime's days numbered? And what will happen? Will they reunify with the South? Will they become an autonomous region of the People's Republic of China?
I am not sure why people think North Korea would ever be a part of the People's Republic of China. If China were to do such a thing just about all the countries surrounding China would become extremely hostile and countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would become nuclear. Russia would also terminate its alliance or partnership with China since they would fear that China would have designs on Siberia and the Russian Far East. China would more or less become a pariah state and no one would recognize the annexation and declare it to be illegal. Remember, Mongolia was once a part of China yet China respects its sovereignty and recognizes it independence. China could easily annex Mongolia but has not done so since they know what the international repercussions are.

Even without the international repercussions, China would never annex North Korea since A) North Korea is incredibly poor with a poorly educated populace and horrific infrastructure, B) North Koreans are insanely xenophobic and would be extremely hostile and would rebel to rejoin South Korea, and C) South Korea would be a constant and militarily dangerous thorn on its side that would agitate for the reunification. Terrorism would also become widespread throughout China.
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Old 05-02-2013, 10:07 PM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
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IMHO, so long as the elites of the country have their bellies full there will never be revolution in NK.

SK and the people there want unification so long as it doesn't impact their wallets. Sad, but true. A study was done once that to just bring NK to a BASIC level of functioning, the financial impact on SK would be three times that what West Germany experienced bringing the East back in. That basically means income taxes would have to go up, property taxes go up, everything goes up.

Meanwhile you'd have millions of people who were previously irrevocably dependent on the government for everything, they would have a very, very hard time re-assimilating. NK defectors and escapees have much higher rates of suicide, drug and alcohol addiction, indebtedness, and other social problems than the SK population in general.

China is wont to this happening, too. Their country's military view is that NK is a "buffer" to an invasion of China from the West. Further, if NK were to fail, hundreds of thousands of people would flee the country into China and overwhelm their local system with refugees.

It will take an accidental invasion or other such nonsense for war to happen so I think NK is going to stay right where it is for a long time. The Kim family dynasty has such a stranglehold on information that I highly doubt the cellphones can pick up anything other than the country's internal intranet.
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Old 05-03-2013, 12:43 AM
 
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Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
IMHO, so long as the elites of the country have their bellies full there will never be revolution in NK.

SK and the people there want unification so long as it doesn't impact their wallets. Sad, but true. A study was done once that to just bring NK to a BASIC level of functioning, the financial impact on SK would be three times that what West Germany experienced bringing the East back in. That basically means income taxes would have to go up, property taxes go up, everything goes up.

Meanwhile you'd have millions of people who were previously irrevocably dependent on the government for everything, they would have a very, very hard time re-assimilating. NK defectors and escapees have much higher rates of suicide, drug and alcohol addiction, indebtedness, and other social problems than the SK population in general.

China is wont to this happening, too. Their country's military view is that NK is a "buffer" to an invasion of China from the West. Further, if NK were to fail, hundreds of thousands of people would flee the country into China and overwhelm their local system with refugees.

It will take an accidental invasion or other such nonsense for war to happen so I think NK is going to stay right where it is for a long time. The Kim family dynasty has such a stranglehold on information that I highly doubt the cellphones can pick up anything other than the country's internal intranet.
From reports I have read from the US military, North Korea's political and military legitimacy rests on reunification. The moment they renounce reunification is the moment the entire government collapses.

If a reunification does occur with South Korea, most analysts believe the country will be under martial law/military occupation ruled by a military governor appointed by South Korea. Many analysts also believe it will be closer to a confederation rather than an outright absorption of the country. In a way it will probably resemble colonialism with chaebols seizing control of the natural resources and employing North Koreans in near slave like conditions. Freedom of movement will most likely be restricted as well. In other words, don't expect any kind of democracy or any true kind of freedom for North Korea even if unification occurs.
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