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Old 01-03-2014, 02:49 AM
 
89 posts, read 142,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by red4ce View Post
Declining population =/= downfall of civilization. Quite the opposite in fact. Many of Japan's social ills and maladies are precisely because the country is so overcrowded. Population decline will in the long run alleviate pressure on Japanese society and allow future generations of Japanese to enjoy life more.
I agree with you to some extent (Declining population =/= downfall of civilization). But Japan has been already a serious population aging country, and declining population will cause great burden and pressure on its economy and society.
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Old 01-03-2014, 09:51 AM
 
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I think the biggest downfall for Japan is their inability to control their public finances. They cannot blame this on the eldery, because other countries in the same situation, were able to balance their budgets.

In 1995 their net public debt was 30% of GDP. Today it is 140% and it is growing by 5-10% each year. Greece has a net public debt of 155%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by red4ce View Post
Declining population =/= downfall of civilization. Quite the opposite in fact. Many of Japan's social ills and maladies are precisely because the country is so overcrowded. Population decline will in the long run alleviate pressure on Japanese society and allow future generations of Japanese to enjoy life more.
The problem is, how is Japan supposed to pay for this? They already have a massive deficit, and a debt out of control. How are the japanese going to enjoy life more if their economy crashes due to the debt burden?

Also, while I think decline in population is good, it needs to be controlled. With current policies Japan will decline from 128 million people to 48 million people in 2100. 40% of them will be over 65 years old.

Last edited by Camlon; 01-03-2014 at 10:02 AM..
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Old 01-03-2014, 08:23 PM
 
25,059 posts, read 23,218,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
I think the biggest downfall for Japan is their inability to control their public finances. They cannot blame this on the eldery, because other countries in the same situation, were able to balance their budgets.

In 1995 their net public debt was 30% of GDP. Today it is 140% and it is growing by 5-10% each year. Greece has a net public debt of 155%.



The problem is, how is Japan supposed to pay for this? They already have a massive deficit, and a debt out of control. How are the japanese going to enjoy life more if their economy crashes due to the debt burden?

Also, while I think decline in population is good, it needs to be controlled. With current policies Japan will decline from 128 million people to 48 million people in 2100. 40% of them will be over 65 years old.
Actually, no. Public debt does not matter when you have a strong export sector; like what Japan has. Also, the yen is a safe haven currency when the USD tanks. When watching the stock market news like CNBC, the dollar is frequently compared to the yen, not the euro or the Pound. When you have a very strong industrial base, your public debt does not matter very much.
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Old 01-03-2014, 09:19 PM
 
3,139 posts, read 2,711,320 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
Actually, no. Public debt does not matter when you have a strong export sector; like what Japan has. Also, the yen is a safe haven currency when the USD tanks. When watching the stock market news like CNBC, the dollar is frequently compared to the yen, not the euro or the Pound. When you have a very strong industrial base, your public debt does not matter very much.
How exactly is a huge industrial going to prevent an economic crisis. Guess what happens with those companies when the government defaults on their assets.

You are living in a dream world, public debt matters. Maybe they can use their foreign reserves to buy themselves some time, but it will only delay the inevitable. When public debt grows with 5-10% each year, then something has to give eventually. Maybe they can go up to 200% net debt level, but then I highly doubt they will manage to stay afloat any longer. And once the economy collapses then Japan will not be a safe heaven currency.

Also USD is not going to tank, no matter how much you dislike the US.

Last edited by Camlon; 01-03-2014 at 09:45 PM..
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Old 01-04-2014, 08:21 AM
 
25,059 posts, read 23,218,175 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
How exactly is a huge industrial going to prevent an economic crisis. Guess what happens with those companies when the government defaults on their assets.

You are living in a dream world, public debt matters. Maybe they can use their foreign reserves to buy themselves some time, but it will only delay the inevitable. When public debt grows with 5-10% each year, then something has to give eventually. Maybe they can go up to 200% net debt level, but then I highly doubt they will manage to stay afloat any longer. And once the economy collapses then Japan will not be a safe heaven currency.

Also USD is not going to tank, no matter how much you dislike the US.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/op...debt.html?_r=0

Me disliking the US? That's reaching into Jupiter's orbit....
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Old 01-04-2014, 05:05 PM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
5,008 posts, read 10,807,899 times
Reputation: 4125
Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
Actually, no. Public debt does not matter when you have a strong export sector; like what Japan has. Also, the yen is a safe haven currency when the USD tanks. When watching the stock market news like CNBC, the dollar is frequently compared to the yen, not the euro or the Pound. When you have a very strong industrial base, your public debt does not matter very much.
Japan has a net trade DEFICIT. A strong industrial sector is only worth it if you have a strong trade SURPLUS. Combine that with a shortage of workers and a staunchly conservative immigration policy (that is, nearly nobody foreign can get a green card unless you're an English teacher), and you have a recipe for long term disaster.

Poor spending habits combined with a net import duty means they're basically running Reagonomics Part 2. Eventually their public sector debt will come back to haunt them, badly.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:38 AM
 
3,139 posts, read 2,711,320 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/op...debt.html?_r=0

Me disliking the US? That's reaching into Jupiter's orbit....
Seriously, you are citing Paul Krugman
To fight this recession the Fed needs … soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble. (2001)

Low interest rates, which promote spending on housing and other durable goods, are the main answer. (2002)
Not only do you listen to this joke of an economist, but you expect me to listen to him?
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