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Old 05-06-2014, 01:45 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 627,358 times
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If we combine Shanghai and Suzhou, about the same size of the Greater Tokyo, the population is about the same. Please note that Suzhou has more than 10 million, including migrant workers. So they have 24million plus 10 million.

Suzhou is only about 20 minutes by train, one hour by car from the outer ring of Shanghai. The western parts of Suzhou are already integrated into Shanghai metro area, like Kunshan and Taicang. So it will be just 5 years or so before the entire Suzhou becomes part of Shanghai Metropolitan area.

In terms of economic power, Shanghai has already surpassed Tokyo by the length of subway system. The total ridership will probably overtake Tokyo in a year or two. The total air passengers for the Shanghai metro are pretty close to that of Tokyo. OP already mentioned Shanghai stock exchange has overtaken Tokyo. Only in terms of nominal GDP, Shanghai is pretty behind. But if we take into account the purchasing power, Shanghai is not that behind



Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
Tokyo with 35 million population (Canada's entire population) has been by far the world's largest metropolitan area for years on a land of 13.5k sq km. In comparison, New York while with 30% more land, has only 22-23 million. NYC will probably never be bigger than Tokyo.

However, Shanghai seems to be catching up. The municipality alone has 24 million already, vast majority (95%) urban. There are quite a few nearby smaller cities which are increasingly being intregrated into Shanghai. Suzhou for example, has 5.5M, and in a few years, the subway system in the two cities will be connected

Last year with the extension of Line 11 into Kunshan, par of Suzhou in Jiangsu province, Shanghai Metro became the first rapid transit system in China to connect two provincial-level administrative divisions. There are plans to further connect the Shanghai Metro with the metro systems of Suzhou and even Wuxi.

Then there is Huzhou and Jiaxing on the south/southwest, all within 2.5 hours driving distance.

I wouldn't include Nanjing and Hangzhou, capital of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Both are within 3 hours distance from Shanghai. They will probably remain their own cities just like Philly will never be part of New York.

Currently, these smaller (only by Chinese standard) cities are not integrated into Greater Shanghai Area (GSA), but with rapid urbanization and the expanding of Shanghai's influence, including the fast growth of subway system as well as high speed rail, it is totally likely that they will be within the next decade.

Also note that these are not poor regions. Shanghai's per capita GDP is $15K nominal and $20K PPP. Suzhou's per capital GDP is $18K nominal and $24k PPP. Xuxi $17K nominal, $23K PPP.

Shanghai already overtook Tokyo as Asia's most important stock market
Shanghai Overtakes Tokyo as Busiest Asia Stock Market (Update1) - Bloomberg

Can we project that by 2025, Shanghai may overtake Tokyo as the world's largest metropolitan area?
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Old 05-06-2014, 01:53 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 627,358 times
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When we talk about Tokyo's GDP, it is very tricky. It is just a combination of so many small cities in the area. So Tokyo can only be compared to Shanghai + Suzhou to have a fair comparison. The nominal GDP per capita for Shanghai and Suzhou is close to 20 k USD. If we talk about PPP (purchasing power), 1 USD = 3 RMB. So Shanghai and SUzhou has around 40 k USD per capita which is very close to Toyko. Also remember that Tokyo is one of the most expensive city, so the GDP (PPP) is overestimated there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Postman View Post
If going by population, not only Shanghai but Manila, Jakarta, Delhi, Mumbai could also be poised the surpass Tokyo...still, just because Japan's population is declining does not mean Tokyo's will, but I doubt it will grow anywhere as fast as these other cities.

In terms of overall importance - especially economic - I'm not sure when that will happen. Tokyo's GDP is still a lot bigger than Shanghai and economically it remains more important, but I wouldn't be surprised if Shanghai becomes the predominant economic centre in Asia, surpassing Tokyo and Hong Kong.
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Old 05-06-2014, 10:59 AM
 
Location: In the heights
22,103 posts, read 23,627,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
If we combine Shanghai and Suzhou, about the same size of the Greater Tokyo, the population is about the same. Please note that Suzhou has more than 10 million, including migrant workers. So they have 24million plus 10 million.

Suzhou is only about 20 minutes by train, one hour by car from the outer ring of Shanghai. The western parts of Suzhou are already integrated into Shanghai metro area, like Kunshan and Taicang. So it will be just 5 years or so before the entire Suzhou becomes part of Shanghai Metropolitan area.

In terms of economic power, Shanghai has already surpassed Tokyo by the length of subway system. The total ridership will probably overtake Tokyo in a year or two. The total air passengers for the Shanghai metro are pretty close to that of Tokyo. OP already mentioned Shanghai stock exchange has overtaken Tokyo. Only in terms of nominal GDP, Shanghai is pretty behind. But if we take into account the purchasing power, Shanghai is not that behind
How does that follow? Length of subway system as an expression of economic power?

You also should realize that Tokyo's subway system is exceeded by several cities in length--however, the backbone of Tokyo's system is just as much its regional rail system which for much of its length in the city operates the same way rapid transit (i.e. subway) do in other cities. That's why you get combined maps like this:

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Old 05-06-2014, 11:56 AM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,250,780 times
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^ yep, subway only accounts for less than half of Tokyo's transit system. They heavily rely on regional trains, which is pretty much lacking in Shanghai metro.

This is why Tokyo subways are not nearly as crowded as Shanghai's, despite its larger population and Shanghai's extensive network that is second to none in the world.

I agree that transit is not an ideal benchmark for economic power, otherwise Madrid will be 5X more important than Los Angeles.
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Old 05-06-2014, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
9,781 posts, read 16,228,213 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
^ yep, subway only accounts for less than half of Tokyo's transit system. They heavily rely on regional trains, which is pretty much lacking in Shanghai metro.

This is why Tokyo subways are not nearly as crowded as Shanghai's, despite its larger population and Shanghai's extensive network that is second to none in the world.

I agree that transit is not an ideal benchmark for economic power, otherwise Madrid will be 5X more important than Los Angeles.
Seriously? I didn't think you could get more crowded than the Tokyo subway lol.
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Old 05-06-2014, 06:25 PM
JL
 
7,351 posts, read 11,876,045 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Postman View Post
Seriously? I didn't think you could get more crowded than the Tokyo subway lol.
Either way, you're gonna have to smell someone's breath...just hope they were using a mouthwash that day...


Japanese train station during rush hour - YouTube


Shanghai subway warrior - YouTube
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Old 05-06-2014, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE
143 posts, read 152,206 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
Tokyo with 35 million population (Canada's entire population) has been by far the world's largest metropolitan area for years on a land of 13.5k sq km. In comparison, New York while with 30% more land, has only 22-23 million. NYC will probably never be bigger than Tokyo.

However, Shanghai seems to be catching up. The municipality alone has 24 million already, vast majority (95%) urban. There are quite a few nearby smaller cities which are increasingly being intregrated into Shanghai. Suzhou for example, has 5.5M, and in a few years, the subway system in the two cities will be connected

Last year with the extension of Line 11 into Kunshan, par of Suzhou in Jiangsu province, Shanghai Metro became the first rapid transit system in China to connect two provincial-level administrative divisions. There are plans to further connect the Shanghai Metro with the metro systems of Suzhou and even Wuxi.

Then there is Huzhou and Jiaxing on the south/southwest, all within 2.5 hours driving distance.

I wouldn't include Nanjing and Hangzhou, capital of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Both are within 3 hours distance from Shanghai. They will probably remain their own cities just like Philly will never be part of New York.

Currently, these smaller (only by Chinese standard) cities are not integrated into Greater Shanghai Area (GSA), but with rapid urbanization and the expanding of Shanghai's influence, including the fast growth of subway system as well as high speed rail, it is totally likely that they will be within the next decade.

Also note that these are not poor regions. Shanghai's per capita GDP is $15K nominal and $20K PPP. Suzhou's per capital GDP is $18K nominal and $24k PPP. Xuxi $17K nominal, $23K PPP.

Shanghai already overtook Tokyo as Asia's most important stock market
Shanghai Overtakes Tokyo as Busiest Asia Stock Market (Update1) - Bloomberg

Can we project that by 2025, Shanghai may overtake Tokyo as the world's largest metropolitan area?

Shanghai already surpasses Tokyo in pollution and obnoxiousness
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:21 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 627,358 times
Reputation: 283
So far, Chinese cities are not structured with a lot of commuter towns connected by regional rails. It is very rare for people to commute daily from Suzhou to Shanghai even though they have an excellent train connection which only takes less than 20 minutes.

This is because of the strict household registration system in each administrative region. A person living in Suzhou will find it difficult to find a job in Shanghai, as a lot of jobs in Shanghai requires some kind of residency. Also, if you live in Suzhou, you cannot buy the license plate for your car in shanghai, and your kids cannot go to college in shanghai, etc.



Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
^ yep, subway only accounts for less than half of Tokyo's transit system. They heavily rely on regional trains, which is pretty much lacking in Shanghai metro.

This is why Tokyo subways are not nearly as crowded as Shanghai's, despite its larger population and Shanghai's extensive network that is second to none in the world.

I agree that transit is not an ideal benchmark for economic power, otherwise Madrid will be 5X more important than Los Angeles.
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:26 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 627,358 times
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_s...assenger_rides

See from this list. Sh ranks higher than Tokyo in terms of ridership in the metro system. maybe this does not include the railway system in Tokyo. but it also does not include any rail system between Shanghai and its neighboring towns. Also, the ridership in Shanghai metro is increasing at lightening speed. This year, it will probably surpass the 3 billion mark. Before 2020, it will double the length of its network.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
How does that follow? Length of subway system as an expression of economic power?

You also should realize that Tokyo's subway system is exceeded by several cities in length--however, the backbone of Tokyo's system is just as much its regional rail system which for much of its length in the city operates the same way rapid transit (i.e. subway) do in other cities. That's why you get combined maps like this:
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Old 05-07-2014, 02:58 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,771 posts, read 5,114,752 times
Reputation: 4555
Quote:
Originally Posted by EPKS View Post
Shanghai already surpasses Tokyo in pollution and obnoxiousness
So true,lol.
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