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Old 04-22-2014, 09:31 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 629,036 times
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I don't see any bubble in the first tier cities. Governements have already put in place many curbs for speculating on real estate in China. Instead of 10% down, in China, people need to come up with 30% downpayment, and pay 6% mortgage rates. Plus, people who are registered residents in shanghai can buy property. So why is there any bubble? If there is no such mesures, price would easily be 50% more.
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Old 04-22-2014, 09:36 AM
 
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Please tell me what is wrong with center Shanghai pricier than Manhattan. Hongkong is more expensive than Manhattan. Why Manhattan is so special? Why Manhattan is not a bubble?

Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
I was in China last month and the housing prices in major Chinese cities will scare the hell out of you. Think Vancouver and San Francisco is expensive? Think again.

In central Shanghai, condo prices average at about RMB 50-60k per square meter, or $1000/sf, and that includes common area such as the lobby, hallway and elevators. In north american terms, it is more like 20% more. This is not NYC price. It is Manhattan price. A 900 sf downtown apartment can easily cost a million dollars, and it is nowhere near a luxury product.

In central Beijing, it is 20-30% more expensive than Shanghai! In second tiered cities such as Hangzhou, prices are equally high.

In fact I think no American cities have high real easte prices than Shanghai and Beijing now. San Francisco would seem like a good deal in comparison.

Sounds familar? There was a time when the sheer land value of Tokyo is worth as much as the entire United States. Beijing and Shanghai are not that yet but it is scarily high enough.

I have a feeling that real estate bubble is more of a concern than anything else for the Chinese economy. And we all know that if that bubble burst, it will affect the rest of the world.
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Old 04-22-2014, 10:55 AM
 
183 posts, read 210,172 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
Please tell me what is wrong with center Shanghai pricier than Manhattan. Hongkong is more expensive than Manhattan. Why Manhattan is so special? Why Manhattan is not a bubble?
Because median salaries in Manhattan are very high matching the cost of living, including the real estate prices.
I make six figures, am single and I am barely middle class. In Manhattan you are POOR if you are a family of four and make less than $225,000 USD.
From what I understand people in Chinese cities do not make as much money as Manhattanites, while the housing costs are similar.

And obviously, real estate in Manhattan is very sought after.
Everybody from around the world who has money wants to own an apartment in the Upper West Side = demand that will never die out, so no bubble.
Sorry, but Shanghai and Hong Kong do not have the same level of prestige.

Last edited by Tdiva; 04-22-2014 at 12:02 PM..
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Old 04-22-2014, 02:09 PM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,265,341 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
Please tell me what is wrong with center Shanghai pricier than Manhattan. Hongkong is more expensive than Manhattan. Why Manhattan is so special? Why Manhattan is not a bubble?
expected salary of a new university (a good one) graduate in Shanghai: about $500-800 a month.
expected salary of a mid career professional with 5-10 years of experience: about $1000-$2000 a month

Yes, there are people with very high income, but the above numbers represent the overall income level in Shanghai.
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Old 04-22-2014, 03:10 PM
 
Location: LONDON BABY
301 posts, read 403,539 times
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Chinese developers are busy building skyscrapers in London and New York, maybe its to diversify out of china and lessen their risk by having income from other cities.

Property in London and New York is like a reserve currency, the demand for propertt there is limitless. Skyscrapers are rising all over London and New York, there is a large skyscraper boom going on in London and New York is in the middle of big new skyscraper construction phase not seen since the 1920s and 1960s. It is new yorks third great skyscraper boom

One of the biggest Chinese developers is called Greenland, they build giant 600m+ skyscrapers all over china, but their biggest and most valuable project is a 130m tower in London.

It's strange that a smaller 130m tower in London is worth more than the giant 600m towers they build in china.

Their second most valuable project is in New York. Chinese developers are buying up skyscraper plots in London and New York for huge amounts of money.

100m and 200m skyscrapers in London and New York are more valuable than giant 600m skyscrapers in china, the Chinese developers biggest projects are not in china.

The demand in luxury residential is limitless in London and manhattan, the most expensive real estate in London and New York is much more expensive than anything in china
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Old 04-23-2014, 02:23 AM
 
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Manhattan only enjoys such prestige among ignorant westerners, who have no idea of what the outside world looks like. The price in HK is way above that in NYC. A lot of high price apartments in Upper East, Upper West are bought by Chinese. Indeed, the most expensive cities in North America are expensive because of a lot of chinese investments, like Vancouver. The most expensive cities in Asia are HK and Sigapore, all chinese cities. Shanghai is the equivalent of NYC in Mainland China. It is a matter of time SH will surpass NYC, at least in terms of property price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tdiva View Post
Because median salaries in Manhattan are very high matching the cost of living, including the real estate prices.
I make six figures, am single and I am barely middle class. In Manhattan you are POOR if you are a family of four and make less than $225,000 USD.
From what I understand people in Chinese cities do not make as much money as Manhattanites, while the housing costs are similar.

And obviously, real estate in Manhattan is very sought after.
Everybody from around the world who has money wants to own an apartment in the Upper West Side = demand that will never die out, so no bubble.
Sorry, but Shanghai and Hong Kong do not have the same level of prestige.
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Old 04-23-2014, 02:29 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 629,036 times
Reputation: 283
It is just stupid to compare the price of property with income. Expats of MNC in Shanghai are paid no less than that in NYC. High networth Chinese who want to buy a piece in Center Shanghai are no less than those who want to buy in NYC. There was a new apartment listing in shanghai last week, with 300K RMB per square meter (50k per square feet). It is a new record in the city. It is still only half compared to the highest price per square meter in HK. but it is catching up fast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
expected salary of a new university (a good one) graduate in Shanghai: about $500-800 a month.
expected salary of a mid career professional with 5-10 years of experience: about $1000-$2000 a month

Yes, there are people with very high income, but the above numbers represent the overall income level in Shanghai.
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Old 04-23-2014, 02:35 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 629,036 times
Reputation: 283
there are no 600m skyscraper in China so far. Stop the nonsence.
NY and London are pricier than SH or BJ. why that is not a bubble. Westerners are so stranger and ignorant. Average NYers are earning 60k USD per household. So the million dollar apartments in Manhattan are not a bubble? You may say a lot of rich people are buying in NY for investment. But it is the same in Shanghai. The richest Chinese are buying. Why the investment in china is called a bubble while the same happening in NY is not called a bubble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Obi wan spaghetti View Post
Chinese developers are busy building skyscrapers in London and New York, maybe its to diversify out of china and lessen their risk by having income from other cities.

Property in London and New York is like a reserve currency, the demand for propertt there is limitless. Skyscrapers are rising all over London and New York, there is a large skyscraper boom going on in London and New York is in the middle of big new skyscraper construction phase not seen since the 1920s and 1960s. It is new yorks third great skyscraper boom

One of the biggest Chinese developers is called Greenland, they build giant 600m+ skyscrapers all over china, but their biggest and most valuable project is a 130m tower in London.

It's strange that a smaller 130m tower in London is worth more than the giant 600m towers they build in china.

Their second most valuable project is in New York. Chinese developers are buying up skyscraper plots in London and New York for huge amounts of money.

100m and 200m skyscrapers in London and New York are more valuable than giant 600m skyscrapers in china, the Chinese developers biggest projects are not in china.

The demand in luxury residential is limitless in London and manhattan, the most expensive real estate in London and New York is much more expensive than anything in china
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Old 04-23-2014, 02:41 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 629,036 times
Reputation: 283
Everybody from the world wants to buy in NYC? Dream on. To live in city with worse than third world airport? with the dirtiest subway in the world? Those billionaires want to live a few blocks from Harlem?
You must be kidding.

SH property price has much more upward potential than NYC. With so many government restriction against property investment, the price there almost doubles every 5 years. The reason is simple. More than half a million immigrants every year in the city. It is like adding the population of entire manhattan every 3 years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tdiva View Post
Because median salaries in Manhattan are very high matching the cost of living, including the real estate prices.
I make six figures, am single and I am barely middle class. In Manhattan you are POOR if you are a family of four and make less than $225,000 USD.
From what I understand people in Chinese cities do not make as much money as Manhattanites, while the housing costs are similar.

And obviously, real estate in Manhattan is very sought after.
Everybody from around the world who has money wants to own an apartment in the Upper West Side = demand that will never die out, so no bubble.
Sorry, but Shanghai and Hong Kong do not have the same level of prestige.
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Old 04-23-2014, 11:17 AM
 
183 posts, read 210,172 times
Reputation: 161
Lol... nobody wants to live in Shanghai besides the Chinese or reluctant expats. It's nice that you confirm that even the Chinese want a piece of Manhattan.
You seem to contradict yourself in many ways.
Now tell me, how is a city with housing prices similar to Manhattan, yet people making far less, sustainable?
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