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View Poll Results: Top Asian city in circa 2040?
Tokyo 7 35.00%
Seoul 3 15.00%
Shanghai 6 30.00%
Other (mention) 4 20.00%
Voters: 20. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-01-2014, 06:53 PM
 
Location: Guangzhou, China
9,783 posts, read 13,372,272 times
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I'd wager Shanghai if current trends continue. 25 years is a long period over which to speculate, especially when unprecedented growth levels are concerned, but Japan has real issues such as an aging population that are fact, rather than speculation. Even if they turned it around tomorrow, you'd have a period of over a decade where this new workforce was still too young to contribute in real numbers. Lots of Japanese manufacturing has already shifted to China... as is the case with the US, you're basically looking at a situation where the lower level jobs that previously ensured that lower class members of society still had real money to put back into the economy aren't there and you've got a portion of the population that's floundering. Basically, Tokyo is poised to stagnate, if not decline.

China's got the male/female disparity looming, but that's more a problem in its rural interior that will have mitigated effects in the urban areas where the money is in the first place.

Hong Kong's main reasons for becoming a financial center was its status as a British-owned state in a Western-dominated world. I wouldn't necessarily say its peaked, but its reacquisition by a now much-more-open China and the growth of Chinese cities mitigates some of the special status it once held.

 
Old 05-01-2014, 06:58 PM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
9,781 posts, read 16,269,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k View Post
I'd wager Shanghai if current trends continue. 25 years is a long period over which to speculate, especially when unprecedented growth levels are concerned, but Japan has real issues such as an aging population that are fact, rather than speculation. Even if they turned it around tomorrow, you'd have a period of over a decade where this new workforce was still too young to contribute in real numbers. Lots of Japanese manufacturing has already shifted to China... as is the case with the US, you're basically looking at a situation where the lower level jobs that previously ensured that lower class members of society still had real money to put back into the economy aren't there and you've got a portion of the population that's floundering. Basically, Tokyo is poised to stagnate, if not decline.

China's got the male/female disparity looming, but that's more a problem in its rural interior that will have mitigated effects in the urban areas where the money is in the first place.

Hong Kong's main reasons for becoming a financial center was its status as a British-owned state in a Western-dominated world. I wouldn't necessarily say its peaked, but its reacquisition by a now much-more-open China and the growth of Chinese cities mitigates some of the special status it once held.
Yes, the decline in Japanese manufactured or Japanese-branded products is quite noticeable. Whereas in the 90s the market was dominated by Sony, Panasonic, now Samsung and LG seem the top dogs. Japan still exports a lot of vehicles, or manufactures them elsewhere, but Hyundai is no longer the second-rate car it was. Now the Chinese are coming up. In a word, China and South Korea are challenging Japanese hegemony in Asia. Of and don't forget Taiwan.

I think the disparity will equalise due to changing social conditions.

Yes, it's true, although Hong Kong has already established itself, I suppose. It's position is no longer unique in Asia, many expats are flocking to Shanghai, Shenzhen.etc.
 
Old 05-01-2014, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Jersey
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Anything can happen in 25 years. It very well could be Jakarta, Manilla, Grung Thep, Delhi, Kuala Lumpur, or Mumbai.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 02:18 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 630,715 times
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According to the ranking of its air passengers, which I think is a good indicator of how busy/big/international a city is, Tokyo is No.1 today. BJ is No. 2 (This year, SH probably will overtake BJ), SH is No. 3, Seoul No.4, then HK and Singapore

World's busiest city airport systems by passenger traffic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Old 05-02-2014, 02:45 AM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
According to the ranking of its air passengers, which I think is a good indicator of how busy/big/international a city is, Tokyo is No.1 today. BJ is No. 2 (This year, SH probably will overtake BJ), SH is No. 3, Seoul No.4, then HK and Singapore

World's busiest city airport systems by passenger traffic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
World's busiest airports by international passenger traffic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is far more telling in terms of how international an airport is. Total stats include domestic passengers. Not surprisingly Atlanta isn't even in the top 30.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 02:51 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 630,715 times
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I really don't think it is a good gauge. For example, the HK airport, being a small special region, all of its air passengers are counted as international (including those from Mainland). So all the airports in small countries rank very high in this list.

Why for SH airport, a traveller from BJ is less important than a guy from Bankok? it does not make sense.

Atlanta is an exception. It has huge air traffic just because of its transfer status.

All the other cities in my list are huge cities with the biggest economies in the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Postman View Post
World's busiest airports by international passenger traffic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is far more telling in terms of how international an airport is. Total stats include domestic passengers. Not surprisingly Atlanta isn't even in the top 30.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 03:12 AM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
9,781 posts, read 16,269,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
I really don't think it is a good gauge. For example, the HK airport, being a small special region, all of its air passengers are counted as international (including those from Mainland). So all the airports in small countries rank very high in this list.

Why for SH airport, a traveller from BJ is less important than a guy from Bankok? it does not make sense.

Atlanta is an exception. It has huge air traffic just because of its transfer status.

All the other cities in my list are huge cities with the biggest economies in the world.
Well it measures how international that city is. I think few can dispute Hong Kong is more international than Beijing or Shanghai. Sure, 54 million international tourists visit China annually, but how many arrive in Beijing by air? HK's location is of course a great asset too.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 07:15 AM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,281,099 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Postman View Post
Well it measures how international that city is. I think few can dispute Hong Kong is more international than Beijing or Shanghai. Sure, 54 million international tourists visit China annually, but how many arrive in Beijing by air? HK's location is of course a great asset too.
I don't think HK's location is good in terms of air travel. Most travellers are from the northen hemisphere, and HK's southern location definitely doesn't make it convenient. unless one is travelling to south/southeast Asia, why the hell will you ever transfer in HK?

I don't how busy an airport is is a good measure of a city's internationalness. Especially in the case of city state like HK/Singapore, the number is meaningless because any flight is considered international. For HK, how many of those passengers are actually from mainland China? I guess a Chinese passenger who flies to Shenzhen is domestic and to HK is all of a sudden "international".

And speaking of internationalness, Singapore is more so than New York city. Right.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 07:21 AM
 
1,011 posts, read 630,715 times
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HK does lack a good railway connection. The majority of its visitors has to come through air, except travellers from Shenzhen.

For SH, billions of visitors each year actually come by railways. Some travellers even prefer railway between BJ and SH, which is more than 1000 kilo metres away. The highspeed train is very convenient


Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
I don't think HK's location is good in terms of air travel. Most travellers are from the northen hemisphere, and HK's southern location definitely doesn't make it convenient. unless one is travelling to south/southeast Asia, why the hell will you ever transfer in HK?

I don't how busy an airport is is a good measure of a city's internationalness. Especially in the case of city state like HK/Singapore, the number is meaningless because any flight is considered international. For HK, how many of those passengers are actually from mainland China? I guess a Chinese passenger who flies to Shenzhen is domestic and to HK is all of a sudden "international".

And speaking of internationalness, Singapore is more so than New York city. Right.
 
Old 05-02-2014, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
9,781 posts, read 16,269,689 times
Reputation: 2833
Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
I don't think HK's location is good in terms of air travel. Most travellers are from the northen hemisphere, and HK's southern location definitely doesn't make it convenient. unless one is travelling to south/southeast Asia, why the hell will you ever transfer in HK?

I don't how busy an airport is is a good measure of a city's internationalness. Especially in the case of city state like HK/Singapore, the number is meaningless because any flight is considered international. For HK, how many of those passengers are actually from mainland China? I guess a Chinese passenger who flies to Shenzhen is domestic and to HK is all of a sudden "international".

And speaking of internationalness, Singapore is more so than New York city. Right.
HK has direct flights to every continent, there's even a direct fight from HK to NYC. On a world scale it's location isn't much different to Shanghai.

Well, Singapore is very international regardless. It was the second most visited city in the world by international tourists after Hong Kong last year, above NY, London, Paris, Bangkok. Yes, in many ways it is more international than NYC. 41% of it's population are foreigners (which isn't entirely good), it gets tons of tourists, is a huge transportation (shipping and air) hub, very globalised, very much part of the international economy. It's very culture is like Asia in one city.
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