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View Poll Results: Top Asian city in circa 2040?
Tokyo 7 35.00%
Seoul 3 15.00%
Shanghai 6 30.00%
Other (mention) 4 20.00%
Voters: 20. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-30-2014, 03:04 AM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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I think it'll be interesting to see how these four Asian megacities will stack up in the years to come.

Just stats comparing GDP/population to give some idea:

Tokyo

Population: 35 million
GDP: $1,900 billion

Seoul

Population: 25 million
GDP: $532 billion


Shanghai

Population: 20 million
GDP: $297 billion


Hong Kong

Population: 7.1 million
GDP: $233.7 billion

Singapore

Population: 5.5 million
GDP: $263 billion



I listed HK and Singapore because they're currently in the same ballpark as Shanghai, but I don't really see them having the potential to expand. Geographical limitations are one thing, while I kind of feel they've also already developed almost to their full potential.

Of course this is mainly economic, but also kind of subjective. E.g. global brand, tourism.etc too. In that case, Hong Kong and Singapore actually beat these three, with more visitors, yet I still being so economically small compared to the giant that is Tokyo (twice the GDP of London) holds them back.

Tokyo is of course way ahead in GDP right now, but the Japanese economy is stagnating, the yen is weak, Japan seems to have topped out. Old infrastructure, a less entrepreneural spirit.

Seoul could challenge, with it's huge population and the rapid rise of Korea, it's not inconceivable Seoul could match Tokyo in 25-30 years. Also given it's cultural as well as economic impact.

Shanghai is still quite a bit behind in GDP, quality of life, wealth and wages, but the city benefits from China's rapid economic rise, and 20 years is a long time in China.

 
Old 04-30-2014, 03:20 AM
 
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Perhaps you should add BJ as well with 21 million. In SH, the population is actually 24 million if we count the municipality.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 03:24 AM
 
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When you compare Tokyo to the rest of the Asian cites, I think it is a bit unfair. Are we talking about the metro area of Tokyo? that is more than 10 k square kilometers. If it is a fair comparison, we need to add part of Suzhou, like Gunshan, or Taicang, to Shanghai municipality, which is just 15 minute train commute to the center of Shanghai. So the greater Shanghai area would have close to 30 million population.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 03:45 AM
 
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If we simply compare the size of economy in 2020, I would vote for Shanghai. The city is expanding, with an addition of about half a million each year. Also, in 10 years time, the city of Suzhou will eventually become part of the Greater Shanghai, which will make the size of Shanghai comparable to the 35 million population in Tokyo.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 04:59 AM
 
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gen2010 View Post
If we simply compare the size of economy in 2020, I would vote for Shanghai. The city is expanding, with an addition of about half a million each year. Also, in 10 years time, the city of Suzhou will eventually become part of the Greater Shanghai, which will make the size of Shanghai comparable to the 35 million population in Tokyo.
Well if Shanghai physically grows to incorporate those and if we consider metro GDP.

I'm not sure if the Tokyo figure includes the vast metro area or the city, but Tokyo's city limits are pretty vast and incorporate over 20 million I think.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:24 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Postman View Post
Well if Shanghai physically grows to incorporate those and if we consider metro GDP.

I'm not sure if the Tokyo figure includes the vast metro area or the city, but Tokyo's city limits are pretty vast and incorporate over 20 million I think.
Tokyo city's population is only 13 million, lower than Shanghai's. The 35M number represents metro Tokyo, which is twice the size of Municipality of Shanghai

Shanghai's subway line is already in Kunshan city. In a couple of years, Shanghai's subway line 11 will take one directly to the city of Suzhou. It will be hard to argue that's not one metro area while Yokohama and a while bunch of smaller cities are part of Tokyo.

In terms of GDP, I don't know how much the Chinese data mean as it is not a floating currency. And also PPP values normally make more sense than nominal ones.

I agree than Singapore doesn't have much potential and I believe Hong Kong has peaked.

Last edited by botticelli; 04-30-2014 at 08:37 AM..
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:41 AM
 
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Right. If we talk about Metro area, we should include Kunshan and Taicang at least for Shanghai. It will be just a matter of a few years before Suzhou is integrated into the SH metro area.

Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
Tokyo city's population is only 13 million, lower than Shanghai's. The 35M number represents metro Tokyo, which is twice the size of Municipality of Shanghai

Shanghai's subway line is already in Kunshan city. In a couple of years, Shanghai's subway line 11 will take one directly to the city of Suzhou. It will be hard to argue that's not one metro area while Yokohama and a while bunch of smaller cities are part of Tokyo.

In terms of GDP, I don't know how much the Chinese data mean as it is not a floating currency. And also PPP values normally make more sense than nominal ones.

I agree than Singapore doesn't have much potential and I believe Hong Kong has peaked.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:43 AM
 
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Another thought about HK. Why cannot we talk about HK-Shenzhen metro area? they are really close, less than 30 minute commute. If we combine them, they can match Seoul in size and GDP.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 08:43 AM
 
Location: In the heights
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Probably Tokyo, though for a projection that's 25 years out, it's really anyone's guess.
 
Old 04-30-2014, 06:37 PM
 
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
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Tokyo, or Singapore.
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