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Considering the population, China will never be as wealthy as America on a per person basis. But to claim China as a nation will never be strong enough to challenge the US, 1/4 of its population size, is just wishful thinking.
Nobody is commenting on the actual conclusion of this IMF report. The main re-evaluation is the huge drop in purchasing power in the USA according to the new estimates. As a secondary consequence of this drop in purchasing power, China is now larger than the USA.
In IMF predicted % of World's GDP For End of Year 2014
USA April: 19.242% Oct: 16.277%
CHI April: 16.055% Oct: 16.479%
China hardly moved (up 2.64%), but the USA took a huge drop (down 15.40%) relative to the world. Comments related to this report should be about the fall in PP of the USA.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 10-28-2014 at 09:31 AM..
Good points. Sure there are people who make some great money in China, but they are then stuck living there in the substandard living conditions. My wife is from there, her family still lives back there in Guangzhou so we go every couple years to visit. She has a friend who manages a luxury car dealership there so she earns more than my wife and I combined- she earns great money. But yet her home is not nearly as nice as the modest place we have here in Seattle on our less than median income- that friend was here to visit us a few weeks ago and wouldn't stop raving about how nice homes are here. So even as pay rises in China, there will not be a rush to go there, as people know the living standard is SO much better in places like the US and Canada- even compared to those who make good money in China.
And the job market is not great over there, either. My wife's sister graduated college a few years ago with great grades, and had a connection through her parents to get the job she has- which is totally unrelated to her college major. It's the only way to really get work over there, to have connections. Otherwise it is extremely competitive. Anyway, she has no real opportunities for much advancement, it's hard to move on to anything different in regards to finding new jobs, and after several years at the same job, she only gets 1 week of paid vacation time. So even now with China doing better than ever, many there still look to the US as a big upgrade in not only living standard but also working conditions- the vast assortment of job options, the freedom to be able to find more suitable employment, the better working conditions in regards to paid time off and other benefits.
I know there are some very high level types of people who are deciding to move back from the West to their homes in China for jobs and that is great- but I don't see any great reverse migration any time soon, from my limited sample group with the wife's friends and people they know (and these are all educated people with money), the flow is all towards US and Canada- nobody at all is considering moving back to China.
What you said is pretty accurate.
However, as I mentioned a few times, most Chinese will never live in large single family homes like people do in US and Canada. But does that necessarily mean life is worse without that? I don't agree. Most urban people in west Europe, Japan, Korea don't live in single family homes either. US and Canada are new continents with low density, which is why they can afford living in such lifestyle extravagant seen by others.
I don't think living in large houses necessarily makes one's living standard so much higher. There is quality of life involved, in terms of easy access to amenities such as shops, restaurants etc.
Most SFH dwellers live in the suburbs with very little un-residential nearby. While living in large homes with backyards, you guys end up driving to everywhere. Open you fridge and let me how much of the food is from more than 4 days ago. The Chinese will throw away vegetable bought more than 24 hours ago and buy something fresh from the market every day, or at least every other day, yet most suburban Americans store their food bought last Saturday. In freezers are usually full of frozen meat, some of which from a month ago, which is unimaginable in China. Tell me, is eating old vegetable and frozen meat a sign of high living standards?
Most Chinese city dwellers buy their breakfast on the same day they eat, in many cases it is made in front of eyes. Americans eat old bread bought from Costco in large package (cheap yes) from God knows when.
I currently live in Toronto and I won't want to live in a house even if I can. Why? because that means 1 hour + commute each day while my condo is only half a mile from office, so convenient that I go back home to have lunch everyday, sometime taking a nap. Is that something a large suburban home can buy? Most people still want large homes on a quiet street, but to claim that's a golden standard of better living standard, I'm afraid I have to disagree. I don't envy those who live in 3000 sf homes with 8 rooms with various functions 40 miles away from the workplace at all (most likely the case in a large city). Their life is pretty sad to me. Many Asian still anticipate that kind of lifestyle in North America, not because it is necessarily a better life, but because they are under the pressure to do so (many consider living in condos/apartments embarrassing and "low class").
Your description regarding jobs is largely true, but China's job market is increasingly fluid as well. Most of my college classmate have changed jobs quite several times. There are ample opportunities for them.
Of course immigration is still one way, and will remain so for a long time. The US on a per person basis is massively wealthy, because it has so much resources and relatively few people. China doesn't have that advantage and will never have. China should learn from countries like Japan and Germany in providing higher living standard, not America, which is not a fair comparison at all.
Why is this even considered a major statistic? The only one that truly matters is real, pure dollars- and the US is still far ahead of China in that category. So no, China is not the biggest economy. It WILL get there someday in the not too distant future, as it should since it is so much bigger than the US- but it's not there yet.
yes and no.
While PPP doesn't make all the sense, nor does nominal $ value.
For example, by nominal GDP, it means if a Chinese farmer sells one kilo of oranges, the GDP is $0.5, while for an American farmer, it is $1.5? What makes an American apple more valuable to Chinese apple?
Or when an American hires a plumber to do some job at home, it costs $80 and therefore adds $80 to GDP, while the same service in China cost $10, and adds only $10.
Since 2005, Chinese Yuan rose by over 30% against the USD, does that mean even without any growth, the Chinese economy physically is 30% more?
PPP of course is not an ideal measurement either, because when you go out and buy oil, you need to spend real $, not PPP$. Nobody cares about PPP$ when doing a transaction.
Most Chinese city dwellers buy their breakfast on the same day they eat, in many cases it is made in front of eyes. Americans eat old bread bought from Costco in large package (cheap yes) from God knows when.
Agree with most of your other points, but this... Yes you can see how it's made in front of your eyes, with vegetables, meat, and cooking oil from god knows where. Most of my relatives in Beijing don't buy breakfast anymore and try very hard to cook their own food from sources they trust. My friends' parents from university have gotten so paranoid in recent years that they have asked their kids in America to FedEx them packages of dry food like milk powder - real, authentic Nestle milk powder. The thing is, in America and Canada, no matter where you get your food from, you are almost guaranteed that its quality and ingredients haven't been tampered with - whether it's from Costco, the random corner store, or the increasingly popular organic groceries like Whole Foods and a wide variety of stores that now only source from local, organic producers. That kind of peace of mind is still hard to find in China, especially if you have limited budget for food and other life necessities.
However, as I mentioned a few times, most Chinese will never live in large single family homes like people do in US and Canada. But does that necessarily mean life is worse without that? I don't agree. Most urban people in west Europe, Japan, Korea don't live in single family homes either. US and Canada are new continents with low density, which is why they can afford living in such lifestyle extravagant seen by others.
I don't think living in large houses necessarily makes one's living standard so much higher. There is quality of life involved, in terms of easy access to amenities such as shops, restaurants etc.
Most SFH dwellers live in the suburbs with very little un-residential nearby. While living in large homes with backyards, you guys end up driving to everywhere. Open you fridge and let me how much of the food is from more than 4 days ago. The Chinese will throw away vegetable bought more than 24 hours ago and buy something fresh from the market every day, or at least every other day, yet most suburban Americans store their food bought last Saturday. In freezers are usually full of frozen meat, some of which from a month ago, which is unimaginable in China. Tell me, is eating old vegetable and frozen meat a sign of high living standards?
Most Chinese city dwellers buy their breakfast on the same day they eat, in many cases it is made in front of eyes. Americans eat old bread bought from Costco in large package (cheap yes) from God knows when.
I currently live in Toronto and I won't want to live in a house even if I can. Why? because that means 1 hour + commute each day while my condo is only half a mile from office, so convenient that I go back home to have lunch everyday, sometime taking a nap. Is that something a large suburban home can buy? Most people still want large homes on a quiet street, but to claim that's a golden standard of better living standard, I'm afraid I have to disagree. I don't envy those who live in 3000 sf homes with 8 rooms with various functions 40 miles away from the workplace at all (most likely the case in a large city). Their life is pretty sad to me. Many Asian still anticipate that kind of lifestyle in North America, not because it is necessarily a better life, but because they are under the pressure to do so (many consider living in condos/apartments embarrassing and "low class").
Your description regarding jobs is largely true, but China's job market is increasingly fluid as well. Most of my college classmate have changed jobs quite several times. There are ample opportunities for them.
Of course immigration is still one way, and will remain so for a long time. The US on a per person basis is massively wealthy, because it has so much resources and relatively few people. China doesn't have that advantage and will never have. China should learn from countries like Japan and Germany in providing higher living standard, not America, which is not a fair comparison at all.
Can't agree with you here about the standard of living and freshness. Yes, we Americans do not buy our foods everyday, but I, for one, would be very angry if I had to go food shopping everyday. I have way too much to do in a day than to constantly haul a bag of fresh veggie and meats home each and everyday. This is why we have fridges and freezers. It's for the convenience. Maybe the Chinese like their food fresh, but I prefer the convenience of having to shop once a week. And no, not everyone go to Cosco here. Most of my friends do not have a membership there or BJ's. We all own our SFHs with a mortgage, and we love our big yards, and we grow pretty ornamental plants in our gardens (not the unsightly vegetable gardens that some of my Chinese neighbors do). I shop at places like Trader Joes and other store with very nice selections of foods. Unlike in China, I can feel pretty safe about all the food that I buy and eat.
China is growing and progressing (and I applaud that), but life is still far more comfortable, and for more people, here in the US.
Agree with most of your other points, but this... Yes you can see how it's made in front of your eyes, with vegetables, meat, and cooking oil from god knows where. Most of my relatives in Beijing don't buy breakfast anymore and try very hard to cook their own food from sources they trust. My friends' parents from university have gotten so paranoid in recent years that they have asked their kids in America to FedEx them packages of dry food like milk powder - real, authentic Nestle milk powder. The thing is, in America and Canada, no matter where you get your food from, you are almost guaranteed that its quality and ingredients haven't been tampered with - whether it's from Costco, the random corner store, or the increasingly popular organic groceries like Whole Foods and a wide variety of stores that now only source from local, organic producers. That kind of peace of mind is still hard to find in China, especially if you have limited budget for food and other life necessities.
food safety is a whole different issue I don't want to get into right now (not that I deny it is a big problem). I was talking about lifestyle.
Can't agree with you here about the standard of living and freshness. Yes, we Americans do not buy our foods everyday, but I, for one, would be very angry if I had to go food shopping everyday. I have way too much to do in a day than to constantly haul a bag of fresh veggie and meats home each and everyday. This is why we have fridges and freezers. It's for the convenience. Maybe the Chinese like their food fresh, but I prefer the convenience of having to shop once a week. And no, not everyone go to Cosco here. Most of my friends do not have a membership there or BJ's. We all own our SFHs with a mortgage, and we love our big yards, and we grow pretty ornamental plants in our gardens (not the unsightly vegetable gardens that some of my Chinese neighbors do). I shop at places like Trader Joes and other store with very nice selections of foods. Unlike in China, I can feel pretty safe about all the food that I buy and eat.
China is growing and progressing (and I applaud that), but life is still far more comfortable, and for more people, here in the US.
You talk as if the Chinese don't have fridges at home.
They can choose to buy a lot and store in the fridge too if they want. When my mother came visiting me in Toronto, she goes to grocery shopping at least once every two day because the idea of eating vegetable bought 3 or 4 days again is appalling to her.
I agree living standard in America is still far higher. I was just pointing out there is advantage in NOT living in suburban houses with yards. A suburban mall-going lifestyle is unimaginable to me and I am willing to accept any cramped space to avoid that.
They can choose to buy a lot and store in the fridge too if they want. When my mother came visiting me in Toronto, she goes to grocery shopping at least once every two day because the idea of eating vegetable bought 3 or 4 days again is appalling to her.
Wait till you mother takes a 12-hour workday job in Toronto. See if she's still in the mood for frequent trips to grocery stores. That's what older folks do. They do grocery on their spare time. Everyday.
Wait till you mother takes a 12-hour workday job in Toronto. See if she's still in the mood for frequent trips to grocery stores. That's what older folks do. They do grocery on their spare time. Everyday.
Do old Americans do grocery shopping everyday? Ask around. They will eat frozen meat, even frozen/canned vegetables.
large suburban houses come at a cost.
Do old Americans do grocery shopping everyday? Ask around. They will eat frozen meat, even frozen/canned vegetables.
large suburban houses come at a cost.
As a matter of fact, I know quite a few older Americans who do in fact shop regularly and go out for walks, especially if they happen to live close to a shopping area or grocery store. I don't know why we have to take your words and sweeping generalizations as sacred truth without question. America is a big country. Some people live in the country side and suburbs, and some people live in urban areas with more activity. What's so hard to understand about that.
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