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Ironically it's not us in the U.S. that want to be in Asia (well we do but we don't have any military or expansionist interest there, it's mostly to preserve the status quo shipping/trade routes) it's these other countries that are threatened by China:
Philipines
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
and, ironically, Vietnam
They want us there to be the balance to China. All of them will be rushing to the great protector if China is a threat in the South China Sea (including the Socialist Republic of Vietnam) - the U.S., and by extension, all the other world powers. China is a bully. The solution for these countries is to go to another, if you will, bully. The world has made it's decision on the S. China Sea - it ain't happening for China. It's the world vs China, and China won't win on the diplomatic front and the military front is just plain unthinkable.
true, but let's not pretend that the US is "protecting“ these small countries with a kind heart. It gives it the perfect excuse to meddle and contain China. There are a million places on earth the US could help with using its power but it doesn't want to. East Asia and the Middle East have always been its focus, why? Because it has a lot to gain. Of course the US WANT to be in Asia.
To preserve the status quo? Nicely put, you mean, the effective US control of the Malacca strait on which 60% of Asia's oil supply depends on? Of course China won't like the status quo. Who would?
And trust me, it is not China vs. the world. Americans always love to talk as if the US represent the positive force in this entire world, as if it were the ultimate hero. Let's also not assume all those small Asian countries are united as one against China - they fought against and stab each other on the back all the time.
You are completely right about asking a bigger bully to fight another bully - that's how the world works. So it is meaningless to pass judgments on who is good and who is the villain. Even a small nation like Singapore did enough nasty things to harm China's interest just so it can continue to enjoy its geographic privilege. Nobody is really innocent here. Who cares if you are called a bully or not? You get what you want if you are powerful enough, and from what I see, the US can't and won't do much about what China wants in the south China sea.
true, but let's not pretend that the US is "protecting“ these small countries with a kind heart. It gives it the perfect excuse to meddle and contain China. There are a million places on earth the US could help with using its power but it doesn't want to. East Asia and the Middle East have always been its focus, why? Because it has a lot to gain. Of course the US WANT to be in Asia.
To preserve the status quo? Nicely put, you mean, the effective US control of the Malacca strait on which 60% of Asia's oil supply depends on? Of course China won't like the status quo. Who would?
And trust me, it is not China vs. the world. Americans always love to talk as if the US represent the positive force in this entire world, as if it were the ultimate hero. Let's also not assume all those small Asian countries are united as one against China - they fought against and stab each other on the back all the time.
You are completely right about asking a bigger bully to fight another bully - that's how the world works. So it is meaningless to pass judgments on who is good and who is the villain. Even a small nation like Singapore did enough nasty things to harm China's interest just so it can continue to enjoy its geographic privilege. Nobody is really innocent here. Who cares if you are called a bully or not? You get what you want if you are powerful enough, and from what I see, the US can't and won't do much about what China wants in the south China sea.
this makes the world dangerous if this all how Chinese thinks
this makes the world dangerous if this all how Chinese thinks
this is how the entire world thinks.
If you think the west has better moral than this, tell me why they haven't returned all the overseas colonies that didn't belong to them? The UK gave up a lot of its colonies after WWII because it couldn't afford to have them any more, not because it had a change of heart and decided it was wrong to keep them.
You can't say: it is all in the past, now we have established a world order (that's hugely in our own favour), let's stick to it no matter how the world evolves.
If you think the west has better moral than this, tell me why they haven't returned all the overseas colonies that didn't belong to them? The UK gave up a lot of its colonies after WWII because it couldn't afford to have them any more, not because it had a change of heart and decided it was wrong to keep them.
You can't say: it is all in the past, now we have established a world order (that's hugely in our own favour), let's stick to it no matter how the world evolves.
whatever their reasoning, its wrong to bring back imperialism again. that's why we have international courts to settle disputes and not just say there are small nations and big nations
true, but let's not pretend that the US is "protecting“ these small countries with a kind heart. It gives it the perfect excuse to meddle and contain China. There are a million places on earth the US could help with using its power but it doesn't want to. East Asia and the Middle East have always been its focus, why? Because it has a lot to gain. Of course the US WANT to be in Asia.
To preserve the status quo? Nicely put, you mean, the effective US control of the Malacca strait on which 60% of Asia's oil supply depends on? Of course China won't like the status quo. Who would?
And trust me, it is not China vs. the world. Americans always love to talk as if the US represent the positive force in this entire world, as if it were the ultimate hero. Let's also not assume all those small Asian countries are united as one against China - they fought against and stab each other on the back all the time.
You are completely right about asking a bigger bully to fight another bully - that's how the world works. So it is meaningless to pass judgments on who is good and who is the villain. Even a small nation like Singapore did enough nasty things to harm China's interest just so it can continue to enjoy its geographic privilege. Nobody is really innocent here. Who cares if you are called a bully or not? You get what you want if you are powerful enough, and from what I see, the US can't and won't do much about what China wants in the south China sea.
You know your stuff I must admit. Hard to argue - yeah the Straight of Malacca. I would say it's more then 60%. That's China's Achilles heal. And no doubt all these SE Asian countries view each other as enemies...that's one reason that that Malyasian airline flight disappeared last year. Indonesia sharing radar info with Malaysia? No way they will compromise there air defense capabilities, they trust each other about as far as you can throw a stick. All these countries are in a virtual cold war with each other while smiling and shaking hands. Singapore's military strategy is designed to defend against Malaysian attack. Singapore is aligning with China but some of there military I am told has just recently done training in Taiwan. Those countries are players out there.
I still think however - the South China Sea is like Taiwan. It's the US red line in the sand. SUre they can build some bases and airfields on some reef out there, but if they start occupying some real island off borneo or screw with shipping it's game over. China knows it, and China in 2015 is all about business - war is bad for business. And, we don't have to pursue the military issue - one aircraft carrier fleet in the straight of malacca will put China into a world of hurt.
You know your stuff I must admit. Hard to argue - yeah the Straight of Malacca. I would say it's more then 60%. That's China's Achilles heal. And no doubt all these SE Asian countries view each other as enemies...that's one reason that that Malyasian airline flight disappeared last year. Indonesia sharing radar info with Malaysia? No way they will compromise there air defense capabilities, they trust each other about as far as you can throw a stick. All these countries are in a virtual cold war with each other while smiling and shaking hands. Singapore's military strategy is designed to defend against Malaysian attack. Singapore is aligning with China but some of there military I am told has just recently done training in Taiwan. Those countries are players out there.
I still think however - the South China Sea is like Taiwan. It's the US red line in the sand. SUre they can build some bases and airfields on some reef out there, but if they start occupying some real island off borneo or screw with shipping it's game over. China knows it, and China in 2015 is all about business - war is bad for business. And, we don't have to pursue the military issue - one aircraft carrier fleet in the straight of malacca will put China into a world of hurt.
Are you all just nuts? Exactly who benefitted the MOST in the past 30 some years from free trade and free and safe passage of shipping around the world and especially through the Melakka Strait???? None other than China. So do you really think the Chinese will harm their business interests by "shutting down" free passage of merchant ships and such through that whole area? Do you really think the Chinese are THAT stupid? If they are, they would not have turned themselves from an economic basketcase 30 years ago to the major economic powerhouse that they are today.
China "claims" 90% of the SCS and no one will be able to stop them from building up the islands they control...it's their right and they will fight anyone to keep these islands safe. But the Chinese are not stupid enough to start harassing merchant ships, and the Americans, hopefully, won't do something stupid to provoke China.
Ironically it's not us in the U.S. that want to be in Asia (well we do but we don't have any military or expansionist interest there, it's mostly to preserve the status quo shipping/trade routes) it's these other countries that are threatened by China:
Philipines
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Singapore
and, ironically, Vietnam
They want us there to be the balance to China. All of them will be rushing to the great protector if China is a threat in the South China Sea (including the Socialist Republic of Vietnam) - the U.S., and by extension, all the other world powers. China is a bully. The solution for these countries is to go to another, if you will, bully. The world has made it's decision on the S. China Sea - it ain't happening for China. It's the world vs China, and China won't win on the diplomatic front and the military front is just plain unthinkable.
With the exception of the US, the West specifically the European Union simply doesn't care what goes on in Asia or in the South China Sea. Since all countries in the EU are democracies, they can't ignore the will of the people so they have to focus most of their energy on stemming immigration (becoming more of a core issue in the EU) or enacting policies to revive economic growth. If the EU cared about that region, why would Europeans continue to sell dual use technology to China?
The US is on the same path as the EU, mainly that the voters don't care what goes on in Asia or the South China Sea. The Obama administration has been far more inward looking than previous administrations because that is what the people demand. Even the staunchest conservatives don't really care about Asia and are more focused on reversing Obamacare or cutting government interference in the private sector. Israel is often far more important to Americans than anything that happens in Asia. China, on the other hand since it is authoritarian, can continue to go on this path without worrying about a potential backlash from its citizens.
I don't know why all of you are in a huffy about China this and that. The Chinese are asserting their dominion over the seas that are directly adjacent to their homeland. The US is coming from thousands of miles away, and if the excuse is "allies and credibility", well that's an American problem that I don't think China cares too much about. It was foolish that the US allowed itself to be dragged into this mess by a bunch of tin can states like the filipines and their likes. The Chinese haven't done anything to disrupt free merchant shipping through the whole area, and if the US thinks that it can scare China into backing down right in its own backyard, then I think the US is severely underestimating the Chinese.
What's next? The Chinese will keep their building program. So what's the US going to do? Blow them up and start a real war with another nuclear power? Do you think the Chinese will take that lying down? The Chinese military is fighting for what they perceive as their territory. What is the US fighting for? The filipinos? What a joke.
Seriously, if the US and Japan were to start a shooting war, I would not be so confident that they can defeat the Chinese so close to home. Do you think the US or Japan dare to carry the war to the Chinese mainland? You will be foolish if you think the Chinese will use only their navy and airforce, because China's real ace is its very impressive missile force. The Chinese will be aiming for Okinawa, the Japanese home islands and Guam, not just the SCS. If a real war starts, the Chinese would be foolish to fight only on American terms and confine itself to the SCS theater. Then what? Do you seriously think the US will risk a huge war for the filipinos and the vietnamese? Dumb strategic thinking.
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