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Old 11-06-2015, 08:52 AM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,268,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandpointian View Post
As Taiwan becomes ever more dependent on Chinese trade, how China handles Taiwan will be speak volumes as to how China will interact with Greater Asia.

My opinion:

China ought to allow for the independence of Taiwan though with stipulations that will neutralize the Taiwan Relations Act with the US. Then China ought to bite its tongue for a generation or two and slowly integrate Taiwan. Over time, Taiwan will effectly fall under the control of China, albeit more indirectly than other places.

What China should not do is to act like an impetuous child over Taiwan and treat her as a toy stolen from her. Under a game theoretic scenario, China would lose a tit-for-tat escalation and seriously undermine its current trajectory. I would argue differently were China 20-30 years down the road.

Within China both voices exist, just as the two voice mode in many countries with fairly closed political processes.

China is a US$10 Trillion economy.Taiwan is a US$500 billion economy, 20x as small. For China to act with haste and foolishness would be tragic.

But I think China is not going to do that despite media screeds that from time to ship whip up sentiment to seize Taiwan. Right now, Xi is shuttling around Asia securing the next phase in China's political strategy. It is reaching out to Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam. This is brilliant. What is incredible for me to see as an American, is that the US, with our feckless President, is not matching this effort. This should signal to the world that the chess match is China's to lose. Given that, China has more time to be even more patient and use more creative intelligence in how it reshapes the political ties of Asia's future.

All eyes should be on Sino-Japanese and Sino-Vietnamese relations. Those two countries irrespective of South Korea, Taiwan, or Singapore hold the key to China's plans for Asia.

S.
Great analysis, and I think that's exactly what will happen. Unlike America where politicians only look at things during the election cycle, China has great patience and focus on horizons of 20, 30 years, instead of 4. China plans for things to happen in 2030 now, and Shanghai's current status was already envisioned in the 1980s. Most countries simply can plan for that long because, you know, governments change every 4-5 years.

Judging from unbiased history, I don't think Taiwan necessarily belongs to China, as PRC always claims, however, I am afraid sooner or later, it will become a reality, provided China doesn't do anything stupid (such as the cultural revolution). As to America, I am not sure whether it will be capable of changing anything by then, even if it still wants to.
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Old 11-07-2015, 05:56 AM
 
Location: singapore
1,526 posts, read 1,272,472 times
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seems like Taiwan media have a lot of interest in this meeting, but the China public doesnt care.

Read in news that there were protests in Taiwan abt this meeting, and the Taiwan main opposition leader said she is disappointed with the outcome of meeting

Taiwan's main opposition leader disappointed with Xi-Ma meeting - Channel NewsAsia

on a sidenote, a Taiwan journalist keep insisting that the chinese side answer her question.. Come across to me as rude.

Let's see how this meeting means for future China Taiwan relations
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Old 11-07-2015, 06:05 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,776 posts, read 5,126,284 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by singaporelady View Post
seems like Taiwan media have a lot of interest in this meeting, but the China public doesnt care.

Read in news that there were protests in Taiwan abt this meeting, and the Taiwan main opposition leader said she is disappointed with the outcome of meeting

Taiwan's main opposition leader disappointed with Xi-Ma meeting - Channel NewsAsia

on a sidenote, a Taiwan journalist keep insisting that the chinese side answer her question.. Come across to me as rude.

Let's see how this meeting means for future China Taiwan relations
More like "the next president".

And yeah it is disappointing, worrying even, but it's not like anyone was expecting any good to come from it. Anyway, Ma is stepping down soon, the election result is gonna be like a huge slap on his face, though I doubt he cares.
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Old 11-07-2015, 06:46 AM
 
Location: singapore
1,526 posts, read 1,272,472 times
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why is the China general public not interested in this meeting ?
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Old 11-07-2015, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,776 posts, read 5,126,284 times
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I don't think general public in China cares about Taiwan at all. Ironically, many of them get really warmed-up whenever someone pops the bubble and reveals the reality.
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Old 11-07-2015, 07:03 AM
 
Location: Singapore
653 posts, read 540,543 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by singaporelady View Post
why is the China general public not interested in this meeting ?
Coz China's leadership knows that this is totally about symbolism and low on substance; the last thing the current Zhongnanhai leadership needs is for the general PRC public to have high expectations that simply cannot be be fulfilled, especially in this period of economic transition; hence the restrained media coverage.

There simply won't be the kind of coverage for the ultra-royal state visit President Xi got for his UK visit. Singapore just happen to be a side-show; all those special deals (Ramping up of FTA, 3rd Bilateral project etc) were just side-shows on Singapore's part; if President Ma wasn't even coming, nobody from PRC would even bother dropping by.
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Old 11-07-2015, 07:05 AM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,268,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by singaporelady View Post
why is the China general public not interested in this meeting ?
Because they know it will achieve nothing. It is more symbolic than anything. Taiwan will not claim independence any time soon and China will not attack it either.

Of course both Xi and Ma have a political motive, but for the Chinese people, it's just one of those meetings.
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Old 11-07-2015, 07:54 AM
 
Location: singapore
1,526 posts, read 1,272,472 times
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i was trying to make sense of things

China held the press conference first and only sent an official to talk to the press.Like they don't really give a s***

Taiwan Ma held the press conference after china and did it personally

Makes it seems Taiwan is so much less powerful...And pathetic..
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Old 11-07-2015, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,776 posts, read 5,126,284 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by singaporelady View Post
Makes it seems Taiwan is so much less powerful...And pathetic..
Isn't that the reality?
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Old 11-07-2015, 08:48 AM
 
Location: singapore
1,526 posts, read 1,272,472 times
Reputation: 416
japan seems to be surprisingly showing a bit of interest in the meeting considering that it doesn't involve them at all
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