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Old 11-25-2015, 06:38 AM
 
12,460 posts, read 18,542,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theunbrainwashed View Post
Ah yes, anything that remotely goes against "West is the rest, White is Right" is pushing an agenda and obsession very Eurocentric viewpoint. The world doesn't revolve around the West anymore. That's not an agenda or obsession, that is a fact and it seems to upset a lot of people with a Eurocentric outlook on life
He was talking about you - this topic isn't about any discussion of "Eurocentric outlooks", it's not relevant to this discussion, it's about China's financial situation compared to Japan's "lost decade".
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Old 11-25-2015, 09:04 AM
 
4,713 posts, read 3,650,977 times
Reputation: 7410
Quote:
Originally Posted by FC76-81 View Post
Yep, I was living in Japan in 1989. If you think about it, Japan has no natural resources. Nearly everything Japan exports has first been imported into the country in the form of raw materials. Car manufacturing and exporting was their biggest business at that time. Germany I think holds the title for that industry now. Electronics was another. At that time, Japan was producing much of the electronics (JVC, Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Futaba, Aiwa, etc.). Korea and China are now involved with those. Back then I was heavily into band stuff and playing electric guitar. Up until a few years ago, I had many of the BOSS guitar pedals I had purchased in Japan back in the mid 80's. Back then BOSS was manufacturing their pedals in Japan. Later on they shifted to manufacturing them in Korea and eventually to Mexico I think. I only know about this because when I put up my BOSS guitar pedals on ebay, buyers were paying really high prices for them since they were made in Japan. Apparently there is a BOSS pedal following and many collect these like others collect stamps and coins for example. I had also purchased a Fender Strat back in 87'. Interesting thing about that was the parts were genuine Fender Strat. parts that had been shipped to Japan and the guitar was assembled there. I bought that guitar for very little compared to the other guitars I had at that time (Hamer and Gibson Les Paul). But 20 some odd years later when I went to sell it, I got over five times for it because of the fact that it's parts were genuine Fender Strat parts.

This is why I think Japan was so dominating back in the mid to late 80's. I still buy Japanese over most other brands these days, with the only exception being my cars (German), but that may change as well in the near future.

IMO the only reason China is even relevant today is because they can crank out enormous amounts of product for pennies to the dollar because they pay their workers squat along with cheap cheap CHEAP materials. Buy American made compared to Chinese made, and the difference in price is remarkable. Because China can crank out tons of merchandise without the same overhead as the American manufacturer does. My grandparents built their own home right after WWII ended and most, if not all of the fixtures installed in the home are still functional and in good shape, still. Go to Home Depot and pick up a $15.00 made in China bathroom fixture and I guarantee you that in three years or so it will need to be changed out due to rust, etc.
Your understanding of China today is outdated. The fixture is $15 for a reason. Did you expect to spend so little money and have it last two decades? If you did, then you're the "cheap" one...You simply get what you pay for.

Chinese goods are cheap and expendable. That's why they are cheap. But China is also moving up the value chain quite rapidly. But given its huge size, it will continue to dominate both cheap and increasing expensive spectrum of production. That's what's really impressive and scary about China.
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Old 11-25-2015, 10:52 AM
 
9,932 posts, read 10,221,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MalaMan View Post
Then in 1990 the Nikkei went down more than 35% in a year, and all the talk about Japan "taking over the world" disappeared.
Will China make it different?
Is this a question about Asian countries, or a more general question about sudden catastrophic downturns in a country's economy that could take a decade or two to recover? Are we talking about meltdowns in Latin America, in Ireland, in the Middle East or the USA/Canada ?


its-official-america-is-now-no-2
A year ago it was widely reported that the USA was now officially the #2 economy in the world. Although everyone knew it would happen eventually, the transition occurred several years earlier than expected. However, it had nothing whatsoever to do with China. The International Monetary Fund recalculated it's Purchasing Power Parity ratio. They decided that in the USA they should make a considerable drop in the value of what dollars could purchase in goods and services. So basically USA dropped relative to most of the economies of the world, it just happened to go below China.

It seems a little less like a global event when you realize that it was a simple recalculation.

But these massive real estate construction boom, seemingly with little thought to demand in China, coupled with history's greatest urbanization movement is frightening. Especially since USA is using China and Japan to pay for it's deficit spending.

The "urbanization" of the USA over the last 100 years kept the rural population more or less the same, while growing the urban population primarily via immigration from foreign countries.


rural - year - urban
59.5 2010 249.3 million
59.1 2000 222.4<----- unprecedented illegal immigration in 1990s
61.7 1990 187.1
59.5 1980 167.1
53.6 1970 149.6<---- end of baby boom and before immigration laws changed
54.1 1960 125.3
54.5 1950 96.8
57.5 1940 74.7 <---- Great Depression
54.0 1930 69.2
51.8 1920 54.3 <----- urban population passes rural population
50.2 1910 42.1
46.0 1900 30.2


Now imagine China trying to urbanize hundreds of millions of people, not by immigration, but by forced uprooting of rural citizens and trying to turn them into apartment dwelling mass consumers. In addition they want to this in 20 years and not take a century like the USA.
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Old 11-25-2015, 12:56 PM
 
4,713 posts, read 3,650,977 times
Reputation: 7410
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin View Post
Is this a question about Asian countries, or a more general question about sudden catastrophic downturns in a country's economy that could take a decade or two to recover? Are we talking about meltdowns in Latin America, in Ireland, in the Middle East or the USA/Canada ?


its-official-america-is-now-no-2
A year ago it was widely reported that the USA was now officially the #2 economy in the world. Although everyone knew it would happen eventually, the transition occurred several years earlier than expected. However, it had nothing whatsoever to do with China. The International Monetary Fund recalculated it's Purchasing Power Parity ratio. They decided that in the USA they should make a considerable drop in the value of what dollars could purchase in goods and services. So basically USA dropped relative to most of the economies of the world, it just happened to go below China.

It seems a little less like a global event when you realize that it was a simple recalculation.

But these massive real estate construction boom, seemingly with little thought to demand in China, coupled with history's greatest urbanization movement is frightening. Especially since USA is using China and Japan to pay for it's deficit spending.

The "urbanization" of the USA over the last 100 years kept the rural population more or less the same, while growing the urban population primarily via immigration from foreign countries.


rural - year - urban
59.5 2010 249.3 million
59.1 2000 222.4<----- unprecedented illegal immigration in 1990s
61.7 1990 187.1
59.5 1980 167.1
53.6 1970 149.6<---- end of baby boom and before immigration laws changed
54.1 1960 125.3
54.5 1950 96.8
57.5 1940 74.7 <---- Great Depression
54.0 1930 69.2
51.8 1920 54.3 <----- urban population passes rural population
50.2 1910 42.1
46.0 1900 30.2


Now imagine China trying to urbanize hundreds of millions of people, not by immigration, but by forced uprooting of rural citizens and trying to turn them into apartment dwelling mass consumers. In addition they want to this in 20 years and not take a century like the USA.
Actually, most rural Chinese would be very happy to be uprooted into apartments with modern amenities....contrary to some bleeding whining westerners who think non-white people should all be living in their primitive hovels for some sort of living history lesson.....
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Old 11-25-2015, 01:15 PM
 
9,932 posts, read 10,221,959 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
Actually, most rural Chinese would be very happy to be uprooted into apartments with modern amenities....contrary to some bleeding whining westerners who think non-white people should all be living in their primitive hovels for some sort of living history lesson.....
I was trying to convey how fast the change would be compared to the USA. When the USA urban population went from 187.1 to 222.4 million in the 1990s (a change of 35.3 million in ten years) slightly offset by a 2.6 million loss in rural population, people were screaming bloody murder. Never mind that percentage wise the urban population was changing by larger amounts in the 1940's, 1950's, and 1960's during the baby boom.

Massive change often comes with quantum leaps in GDP, up or down.
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Old 11-25-2015, 06:13 PM
 
10,847 posts, read 11,348,151 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seixal View Post
I think China isn't anything like Japan in 1989, I think it has much more similarities with the Soviet Union of the 1970s. The PRC relies on a very large military force, has a totalitarian governement. In fact a few decades back the Soviet Union was the only credible military contender of the US, and was considered a superpower. Certainly the Soviets were responsible for technological and cultural prowesses, nonetheless most of the population was poor, repressed, following an economical model disconnected from reality. The Soviet Union collapse only confirmed that it wasn't ever as strong as many people thought it was. PRC just like the Soviet Union struggles with nationalities, corruption and bureaucracy. Sure China is the World's factory due to low salaries, huge internal market, huge buying capacities, and this led to China gathering lot of foreign currency.
But overall I would say no, China has very little do to do with Japan.
maybe you should check China's military spend as % of GDP when concluding it is like the USSR. They are fundamentally different. China is not on a miltary context.

China is not like Japan in 1989. It still has half of its population in rural area (potential labour addition) and much of its hinterland is still largely underdeveloped (unlike Japan which was building highways to nowhere). I am concerned about China's property market as it is getting precariously overheated for a decade.
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Old 11-25-2015, 10:16 PM
 
Location: Guangzhou, China
9,805 posts, read 13,428,343 times
Reputation: 11338
Asia holds 4.4+ billion people and no matter what anyone says, or has said for some time, it already has its own political and economic poles which operate largely separate from the West. China is, understandably, the most powerful nation in Asia, in terms of most metrics. Economy, resources, military...

China isn't invincible, as many pro-China boosters would have you believe, but it also isn't teetering on the verge of unprecedented economic disaster, as many detractors would have you believe. The market crashed and growth slowed, but, people are still buying new cars, opening businesses, patronizing businesses. I opened my restaurant and bar recently and am making what would be considered an upper-middle class income in the US, let alone here. Houses in desirable areas are still being purchased - most of the "ghost town" pictures and stories you read about online are in either peripheral suburbs of third- or fourth-tier cities, or are in rural areas where no locals have the money for a new place, and no wealthy urbanites have the desire to move to... they aren't the norm.

In GZ, the apartment towers that have gone up that are sitting vacant are super-luxury residences that were part of an arms race to see who could create the most exclusive and expensive communities that people would buy... the flats cost between $1 to 5 million USD, and big shock: no one is buying them. There are some mega-luxury, multistory, single-family residences ("villas" as the Chinese call them) next to my complex, and all but one are sitting vacant, and have been since they were built 2 years ago, because as much as people love to ramble on about the number of million- and billionaires here, there just aren't that many people who are willing to spend $10m+ USD on a house in Guangzhou. The towers that have gone up which are targeting middle-class families are usually sold out quite quickly.

I don't think that China will see a "burst" or "collapse" like we saw happen to Japan. Maybe at worst, it will see an '08-style recession, though honestly, considering how much the economy dumped recently and the lack of an extreme consequence, I question whether that will happen, either. I think if anything, China will see a fairly gradual and undramatic slowdown as money doesn't come with the abundance it did previously, and an increase in CCP intervention in economics as it best suits it.
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Old 11-27-2015, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Scandinavia
65 posts, read 47,036 times
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It's not comparable at all. Japan is a small country, lacks natural resources and with a much smaller population. Japan reached it's limits, China on the other hand has a long way to go.
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Old 11-28-2015, 12:25 AM
 
931 posts, read 618,551 times
Reputation: 1493
Quote:
Originally Posted by apekonge View Post
It's not comparable at all. Japan is a small country, lacks natural resources and with a much smaller population. Japan reached it's limits, China on the other hand has a long way to go.
A lot of Americans are obsessed with the Chinese economy, Americans are not used to being #2 or #3 (the way India is developing), they don't want to be usurped. There was a lot of "paranoia" in the 70s when Japan was developing very quickly.I find it quite amusing since China had the world's largest economy for centuries before the US was even a country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...iddle_East.png
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:05 AM
 
Location: Scandinavia
65 posts, read 47,036 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by littlemissrock View Post
A lot of Americans are obsessed with the Chinese economy, Americans are not used to being #2 or #3 (the way India is developing), they don't want to be usurped. There was a lot of "paranoia" in the 70s when Japan was developing very quickly.I find it quite amusing since China had the world's largest economy for centuries before the US was even a country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...iddle_East.png
India not only can beat Usa, but they can also beat China. India has a younger, more dynamic workforce. India's fertility rate is still at 2.5 compared to 1.9 in Usa and 1.7 in China. It's quite possible India will be the world's biggest economy in the year 2080.
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