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Old 11-28-2015, 12:20 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k View Post
Asia holds 4.4+ billion people and no matter what anyone says, or has said for some time, it already has its own political and economic poles which operate largely separate from the West. China is, understandably, the most powerful nation in Asia, in terms of most metrics. Economy, resources, military...

China isn't invincible, as many pro-China boosters would have you believe, but it also isn't teetering on the verge of unprecedented economic disaster, as many detractors would have you believe. The market crashed and growth slowed, but, people are still buying new cars, opening businesses, patronizing businesses. I opened my restaurant and bar recently and am making what would be considered an upper-middle class income in the US, let alone here. Houses in desirable areas are still being purchased - most of the "ghost town" pictures and stories you read about online are in either peripheral suburbs of third- or fourth-tier cities, or are in rural areas where no locals have the money for a new place, and no wealthy urbanites have the desire to move to... they aren't the norm.

In GZ, the apartment towers that have gone up that are sitting vacant are super-luxury residences that were part of an arms race to see who could create the most exclusive and expensive communities that people would buy... the flats cost between $1 to 5 million USD, and big shock: no one is buying them. There are some mega-luxury, multistory, single-family residences ("villas" as the Chinese call them) next to my complex, and all but one are sitting vacant, and have been since they were built 2 years ago, because as much as people love to ramble on about the number of million- and billionaires here, there just aren't that many people who are willing to spend $10m+ USD on a house in Guangzhou. The towers that have gone up which are targeting middle-class families are usually sold out quite quickly.

I don't think that China will see a "burst" or "collapse" like we saw happen to Japan. Maybe at worst, it will see an '08-style recession, though honestly, considering how much the economy dumped recently and the lack of an extreme consequence, I question whether that will happen, either. I think if anything, China will see a fairly gradual and undramatic slowdown as money doesn't come with the abundance it did previously, and an increase in CCP intervention in economics as it best suits it.
Japan at the height of its bubble had the highest per capita GDP in the world. China is nowhere even close to having the highest per capita GDP. The Japanese bubble isn't really a good comparison to use for China and frankly the only reason why it is used is because both are Asian countries. The political and trade situation of that period were also quite different. In 1989, the Soviet Union still existed and China had a GDP that barely ranked in the top 10. I should also point out that Japan had a far more technologically sophisticated economy during that period especially when compared to China today. Basically, China still has some "catch-up effect" left in its economy (probably for at least a decade) so it will still continue to grow at a decent pace although not at the amazing pace as before. I do see a Japan-like lost decade happening when China's per capita GDP reaches 20K USD though since it will be much harder to eek out growth from a more mature and more sophisticated economy but right now China is nowhere near that state.
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Old 01-13-2016, 05:10 AM
 
Location: Fortaleza, Brazil
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I also believe that China's GDP will keep growing at a pace of more than 5% a year for the next 10 years....
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Old 01-13-2016, 07:10 AM
 
Location: Cannes
2,329 posts, read 1,465,174 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FC76-81 View Post
Yep, I was living in Japan in 1989. If you think about it, Japan has no natural resources. Nearly everything Japan exports has first been imported into the country in the form of raw materials. Car manufacturing and exporting was their biggest business at that time. Germany I think holds the title for that industry now. Electronics was another. At that time, Japan was producing much of the electronics (JVC, Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Futaba, Aiwa, etc.). Korea and China are now involved with those. Back then I was heavily into band stuff and playing electric guitar. Up until a few years ago, I had many of the BOSS guitar pedals I had purchased in Japan back in the mid 80's. Back then BOSS was manufacturing their pedals in Japan. Later on they shifted to manufacturing them in Korea and eventually to Mexico I think. I only know about this because when I put up my BOSS guitar pedals on ebay, buyers were paying really high prices for them since they were made in Japan. Apparently there is a BOSS pedal following and many collect these like others collect stamps and coins for example. I had also purchased a Fender Strat back in 87'. Interesting thing about that was the parts were genuine Fender Strat. parts that had been shipped to Japan and the guitar was assembled there. I bought that guitar for very little compared to the other guitars I had at that time (Hamer and Gibson Les Paul). But 20 some odd years later when I went to sell it, I got over five times for it because of the fact that it's parts were genuine Fender Strat parts.

This is why I think Japan was so dominating back in the mid to late 80's. I still buy Japanese over most other brands these days, with the only exception being my cars (German), but that may change as well in the near future.

IMO the only reason China is even relevant today is because they can crank out enormous amounts of product for pennies to the dollar because they pay their workers squat along with cheap cheap CHEAP materials. Buy American made compared to Chinese made, and the difference in price is remarkable. Because China can crank out tons of merchandise without the same overhead as the American manufacturer does. My grandparents built their own home right after WWII ended and most, if not all of the fixtures installed in the home are still functional and in good shape, still. Go to Home Depot and pick up a $15.00 made in China bathroom fixture and I guarantee you that in three years or so it will need to be changed out due to rust, etc.
Great write up. Now about the last comment. Today most things are not made to last long, that's how capitalism works...Buy, and sell...new computer every month, new technology...everything is made to last less and less. They could make and engine to last decades but that wouldn't be profitable because they need to sell engines, and other companies survive by fixing engines. We will always need a China. If an Iphone was to be totally made in the US most people wouldn't be able to afford it, because it would be very expensive. It's all about making money. The more we advance technologically the less products will last, because we need that consumerism to keep the dollars rolling which will pay for the development of new stuff.
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Old 01-13-2016, 10:54 AM
 
1,424 posts, read 736,143 times
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Since the 1990s many people in the west have been "predicting" China will collapse soon. But it never happened.
Also, as survivingearth mentioned nowadays nobody buys things to last long. The key is to have a fashionable design and last for about one year.
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Old 01-13-2016, 08:09 PM
 
277 posts, read 205,204 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yueng-ling View Post
Since the 1990s many people in the west have been "predicting" China will collapse soon. But it never happened.
Also, as survivingearth mentioned nowadays nobody buys things to last long. The key is to have a fashionable design and last for about one year.
Hence the pollution problems it faces these days and it will run out of resources (the world) soon. One thing I noticed is that middle class Asians in Asia prefer quantity over quality - cheap, fashionable but lower quality knock offs because fashion and tech will cycle quickly whereas I've noticed Western middle class seem to prefer quality stuff over cheap and nasty.


The current valuation of Chinese companies is ridiculous - I believe the key difference between Japan and China is that by the late 80s and early 90s when Japan ran out of gas, it got rich and technogolically advanced before they went broke. China is nowhere near advanced or rich, at best it is a hodgepodge of advanced in some sectors, ancient in others and pockets of damn in your face wealth juxtaposed with pure dirt poverty.
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Old 01-14-2016, 05:20 AM
 
Location: Cannes
2,329 posts, read 1,465,174 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willister View Post
Hence the pollution problems it faces these days and it will run out of resources (the world) soon. One thing I noticed is that middle class Asians in Asia prefer quantity over quality - cheap, fashionable but lower quality knock offs because fashion and tech will cycle quickly whereas I've noticed Western middle class seem to prefer quality stuff over cheap and nasty.


The current valuation of Chinese companies is ridiculous - I believe the key difference between Japan and China is that by the late 80s and early 90s when Japan ran out of gas, it got rich and technogolically advanced before they went broke. China is nowhere near advanced or rich, at best it is a hodgepodge of advanced in some sectors, ancient in others and pockets of damn in your face wealth juxtaposed with pure dirt poverty.
I respectfully disagree. China has made a fortune out of all the manufacturing that is done over there and yes their tech industry has advanced pretty remarkably. It's complicating trying to compare late 80's early 90's with today scenario since there is much more competition now than before.
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Old 02-06-2016, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Southern US
162 posts, read 195,042 times
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With the new trends in industrialization, I believe that countries will take much longer to achieve the same amount of industrialization in a given amount of time. Industrialization over 10 years was very rapid in Korea and Japan, but any country that has not even started now and does it some time in the future would take many times longer to achieve the same.
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