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Old 03-28-2016, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Paramus, NJ
500 posts, read 1,255,366 times
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Hmmm.

If Japan still kept Taiwan....

Well, the 228/White Terror massacre wouldn't have happened. Martial law wouldn't happen. No Sunflower movement. I probably wouldn't be born. My grandparents wouldn't have immigrated to the U.S. More buildings would be built with better earthquake regulation. The island would look a lot cleaner than it already is, except for the sky because of China's pollution. More people biking than riding scooters, which are pollutants and death traps in my mind. More respect for nature. Less crazy drivers. There will still be independence protests, but, it would probably look a bit different.

And, the island would be more Japanesey than it already is. I think the Taiwanese embrace their Japanesey colonial roots quite blendedly.

Come to think of it, Taiwan may have a huge spike in bullying incidents if it stayed under Japan.

Crime rate would still be in Asian standards, except for corrupt politicians, which is more of a universal thing.
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Old 03-29-2016, 05:20 AM
 
4,682 posts, read 3,610,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unknown Memory View Post
Hmmm.

If Japan still kept Taiwan....

Well, the 228/White Terror massacre wouldn't have happened. Martial law wouldn't happen. No Sunflower movement. I probably wouldn't be born. My grandparents wouldn't have immigrated to the U.S. More buildings would be built with better earthquake regulation. The island would look a lot cleaner than it already is, except for the sky because of China's pollution. More people biking than riding scooters, which are pollutants and death traps in my mind. More respect for nature. Less crazy drivers. There will still be independence protests, but, it would probably look a bit different.

And, the island would be more Japanesey than it already is. I think the Taiwanese embrace their Japanesey colonial roots quite blendedly.

Come to think of it, Taiwan may have a huge spike in bullying incidents if it stayed under Japan.

Crime rate would still be in Asian standards, except for corrupt politicians, which is more of a universal thing.
I think, for what it's worth, Taiwan got the best out of the whole crappy deal. It became de-facto independent, got protection from the US, and can enjoy being a "little japan" all it wants. It can also keep China interested by trading and opening up with the mainland to keep its dream of reunification alive (stupid Chinese leaders always fall for it), but there is absolutely no desire for re-unification whatsoever. It's a good deal for taiwan.
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Old 03-30-2016, 08:57 PM
 
919 posts, read 602,484 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Not to be accused of what by who? I'm curious about where you're coming from.
of what: Well, the other possible method is if Japan had internally checked the more aggressive elements within its society and politics so that there was no second Sino-Japanese or World War II both of which seem in hindsight unlikely to have been complete victories for them.

by who: the guy who posted above.
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Old 03-30-2016, 10:40 PM
 
276 posts, read 204,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
I think, for what it's worth, Taiwan got the best out of the whole crappy deal. It became de-facto independent, got protection from the US, and can enjoy being a "little japan" all it wants. It can also keep China interested by trading and opening up with the mainland to keep its dream of reunification alive (stupid Chinese leaders always fall for it), but there is absolutely no desire for re-unification whatsoever. It's a good deal for taiwan.
If it ever broke free - unlikely, look at what happened to Okinawa...there is always an outcry of wanting independence, but once they go to the polls the realise how much money is being funded by the mainland it would rather stay.


Interesting though of how Taiwan would have panned out. How many Japanese would have relocated to Taiwan? I see the most likely scenario somewhat like a bigger Okinawa but with a heavy Chinese population. Perhaps it would have been like OTL 1945 and extrapolating developments beyond that.


Sakhalin would have potentially been very valuable for Japan by somewhat freeing more space off Honshu so more people could have lived in Hokkaido. Sakhalin is rich in oil, minerals etc. - mining would have been a boon and lesser reliance on other countries for raw materials. Could keep China, North Korea and Russia in check whilst probably a good place to have rocket launches!
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Old 03-31-2016, 02:21 AM
 
4,682 posts, read 3,610,867 times
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Originally Posted by willister View Post
If it ever broke free - unlikely, look at what happened to Okinawa...there is always an outcry of wanting independence, but once they go to the polls the realise how much money is being funded by the mainland it would rather stay.


Interesting though of how Taiwan would have panned out. How many Japanese would have relocated to Taiwan? I see the most likely scenario somewhat like a bigger Okinawa but with a heavy Chinese population. Perhaps it would have been like OTL 1945 and extrapolating developments beyond that.


Sakhalin would have potentially been very valuable for Japan by somewhat freeing more space off Honshu so more people could have lived in Hokkaido. Sakhalin is rich in oil, minerals etc. - mining would have been a boon and lesser reliance on other countries for raw materials. Could keep China, North Korea and Russia in check whilst probably a good place to have rocket launches!
Well, the fact now is...Taiwan can probably hope for being a totally neutral, non-align place where China's security is not threatened in any shape or form and the island can basically go on being itself. No nukes, no foreign military, no disruption and no harboring of enemy elements during war or peace.
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Old 03-31-2016, 05:41 AM
 
276 posts, read 204,523 times
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Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
Well, the fact now is...Taiwan can probably hope for being a totally neutral, non-align place where China's security is not threatened in any shape or form and the island can basically go on being itself. No nukes, no foreign military, no disruption and no harboring of enemy elements during war or peace.
Hardly. It's future really depends on either the ascent or descent (total economic failure, CCP gone and breaking up into smaller nations). If China fails and CCP collapses, Taiwan will be possibly free, if the CCP is able to develop better weaponry this will counter balance the USA and Russia for power in the East. USA will then need to back off.

Neither the USA nor Japan are Taiwan's real allies. The only real allies are the Anglo sphere or five eyes - USA, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Possibly NATO.
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Old 03-31-2016, 08:31 AM
 
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Originally Posted by willister View Post
Hardly. It's future really depends on either the ascent or descent (total economic failure, CCP gone and breaking up into smaller nations). If China fails and CCP collapses, Taiwan will be possibly free, if the CCP is able to develop better weaponry this will counter balance the USA and Russia for power in the East. USA will then need to back off.

Neither the USA nor Japan are Taiwan's real allies. The only real allies are the Anglo sphere or five eyes - USA, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Possibly NATO.
I am actually stating my position with the assumption that China is and remains strong. It already can take back taiwan within weeks if it wants to pay the price. The US and japan wont intervene in the end if the Chinese can do it quickly and make it a fait accompli. But why? For what? Taiwan has no economic value anymore for China, nor is it all that strategic, given the rising power of the PLAN. In return, Beijing might have a big headache ruling a resentful population, through there will be plenty of turncoat taiwanese collaborators when the crap hits the fan too. Too much trouble for what China will get, so it might be better for China not to pay the price and just have taiwan be a neutral and no-harm place for Chinese tourists.
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Old 03-31-2016, 04:59 PM
 
276 posts, read 204,523 times
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Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
I am actually stating my position with the assumption that China is and remains strong. It already can take back taiwan within weeks if it wants to pay the price. The US and japan wont intervene in the end if the Chinese can do it quickly and make it a fait accompli. But why? For what? Taiwan has no economic value anymore for China, nor is it all that strategic, given the rising power of the PLAN. In return, Beijing might have a big headache ruling a resentful population, through there will be plenty of turncoat taiwanese collaborators when the crap hits the fan too. Too much trouble for what China will get, so it might be better for China not to pay the price and just have taiwan be a neutral and no-harm place for Chinese tourists.
There is probably still 5-10 years of economic value left from Taiwan to benefit China.
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Old 04-03-2016, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Paramus, NJ
500 posts, read 1,255,366 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
I think, for what it's worth, Taiwan got the best out of the whole crappy deal. It became de-facto independent, got protection from the US, and can enjoy being a "little japan" all it wants. It can also keep China interested by trading and opening up with the mainland to keep its dream of reunification alive (stupid Chinese leaders always fall for it), but there is absolutely no desire for re-unification whatsoever. It's a good deal for taiwan.
A "good" deal for now, but I know the younger generation definitely want to see Taiwan go from de-facto to official in their lifetime. They want jobs. They want recognition. They want to be close to the rest of the world.

So, for now... The de-facto bubble and the will of the Taiwanese people are the things keeping Taiwan alive. What people want is a change in a better direction than just keeping things as status quo, but they will have to get over their fear of China, first.
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Old 04-03-2016, 02:57 PM
 
4,682 posts, read 3,610,867 times
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Originally Posted by Unknown Memory View Post
A "good" deal for now, but I know the younger generation definitely want to see Taiwan go from de-facto to official in their lifetime. They want jobs. They want recognition. They want to be close to the rest of the world.

So, for now... The de-facto bubble and the will of the Taiwanese people are the things keeping Taiwan alive. What people want is a change in a better direction than just keeping things as status quo, but they will have to get over their fear of China, first.
No, it's not their fear of China. It's China's choice. The fear of China is the only thing preventing taiwan from being forcibly reunited by China itself. If the taiwanese do anything brazen, China will use that as a perfect excuse to invade and end the issue. The US and japan won't help taiwan if taiwan started the crisis.
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