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Old 07-17-2016, 09:19 AM
 
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Was he in the country when the coup began or did he leave when it began? If he wasn't in the country before it started then this was either poor military planning or a planned military action involving a small number of the military officers.
Why was the parliament building attacked during this coup and were any members of parliament inside? Was the majority of parliament in favor of a more Islamic government or were they in favor of continuing the more secular government? If in favor of secular, that would also point to a planned military action. If they supported a more Islamic government, then it points to a poorly planned coup.

If the current government of Turkey wants to declare USA an enemy state then kiss all the revenue generated by the US military as well as the related jobs and businesses they generate. Say good buy to the US Air Force base, port stops by US Navy ships, and the possible loss of NATO & USA military equipment support. If the people and government become more radical then kiss good bye much of their tourism industry.
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Old 07-17-2016, 09:38 AM
 
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If Turkey becomes more radical Islamic, what could that mean for their current relations with Greece?
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Old 07-17-2016, 09:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
If Turkey becomes more radical Islamic, what could that mean for their current relations with Greece?
My WAG is that Ergon knew about the coup or possibly planned it. He will change the constitution, purge the military and make it his own. This will make ti easier for him to crackdown on the PKK and allow ISIS to take down ASAD. The Sunni Arab nations will support him and they will grow their influence into Iraq and challenge Iran where possible.

Greece will do whatever they can to be buddies with the US and try to get US troops stationed in Greece over Turkey. Turkey will try to play both hands and still join the EU and stay in NATO. The Wing Commander of Incirilik was arrested as part of the Coup so that will make things very interesting for the US forces there.

The EU will most likely still want Turkey in now that Britain is out. Its a huge country and they need revenue now.

If Turkey continues the path though, they will not be in the EU, fall out of NATO and become more "Eastern". They shouldtn even be in NATO to begin with.

With the recent attacks in Europe there will be a stronger support for anti immigrants in the EU and Merkel will either change her policies or be gone. France has covered up what the terrorist actually did to the people in the theater (its horrific) There will be more attacks and a stronger push to strengthen internal security.
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Old 07-17-2016, 09:56 AM
 
4,338 posts, read 2,266,244 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy87 View Post
My WAG is that Ergon knew about the coup or possibly planned it. He will change the constitution, purge the military and make it his own. This will make ti easier for him to crackdown on the PKK and allow ISIS to take down ASAD. The Sunni Arab nations will support him and they will grow their influence into Iraq and challenge Iran where possible.

Greece will do whatever they can to be buddies with the US and try to get US troops stationed in Greece over Turkey. Turkey will try to play both hands and still join the EU and stay in NATO. The Wing Commander of Incirilik was arrested as part of the Coup so that will make things very interesting for the US forces there.

The EU will most likely still want Turkey in now that Britain is out. Its a huge country and they need revenue now.

If Turkey continues the path though, they will not be in the EU, fall out of NATO and become more "Eastern". They shouldtn even be in NATO to begin with.

With the recent attacks in Europe there will be a stronger support for anti immigrants in the EU and Merkel will either change her policies or be gone. France has covered up what the terrorist actually did to the people in the theater (its horrific) There will be more attacks and a stronger push to strengthen internal security.
I heard this theory. The only institution not under the control of Erdogan was the military. This "Coup" provides a ready opportunity to purge the military of those against his policies. Notice how he blames this on the exiled cleric in the US, something that seems highly unlikely.

The future does not look good for Turkish democracy.
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Old 07-17-2016, 10:16 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Vacanegro View Post
I heard this theory. The only institution not under the control of Erdogan was the military. This "Coup" provides a ready opportunity to purge the military of those against his policies. Notice how he blames this on the exiled cleric in the US, something that seems highly unlikely.

The future does not look good for Turkish democracy.
It does not. They have already be-headed soldiers of the uprising and humiliating hundreds of others. With the reports of the people even attacking the soldiers shows there really is no turning back from where the direction is going.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:28 AM
 
Location: Southeast Michigan
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This is sad, as Turkey seemed well on the path of becoming a fully modern democratic country just relatively recently.

The frightening thing is that Turkey does have a very strong military, so if it becomes fully Islamist, the things won't look well for the future of the region. Although Erdogan seem to have been backpedaling on some of his more extreme actions lately.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:29 AM
 
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Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
Was he in the country when the coup began or did he leave when it began?
He was on vacation in the country, in Marmaris.


Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
If he wasn't in the country before it started then this was either poor military planning or a planned military action involving a small number of the military officers.
Seems to be quite a lot of military involved, but the coordination was just horrible. I suspect many subordinates did not go along with it, and rumor has it the plot was discovered so they had to start early, leaving no time for others to mobilize effectively.

They tried getting Erdogan, they attacked where he was staying, but he left right before the attack.


Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
Why was the parliament building attacked during this coup and were any members of parliament inside?
It was midnight so I doubt anyone was there when it started, but went there when it did.

Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
Was the majority of parliament in favor of a more Islamic government or were they in favor of continuing the more secular government?
Majority is in favor of not losing their heads, sort of like the standing ovation Stalin always got. But yea, the majority of parliament is the same party. I do not think they all speak in terms of Islamic government, but in authoritarian terms, the goal for the party to retain power permanently, which also happens to have a lot of fans of an Islamic style government (which works well to maintain one party power as oppose to real democracy).



Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
If in favor of secular, that would also point to a planned military action. If they supported a more Islamic government, then it points to a poorly planned coup.
The coup was poorly planned, a lot of people involved, but few carried it out on the ground. No one knows the reasons right now, but it seems senior commanders were not able to mobilize due to the coup being enacted early, or subordinates refused to comply, or they lost the will when Erdogan was not captured and rally citizens for support. Also, the coup plotters under estimated just how much support from the citizens Erdogan has; there were way too many jihadists types in those crowds for my comfort, not just simple anti-coup protesters.


Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
If the current government of Turkey wants to declare USA an enemy state then kiss all the revenue generated by the US military as well as the related jobs and businesses they generate. Say good buy to the US Air Force base, port stops by US Navy ships, and the possible loss of NATO & USA military equipment support. If the people and government become more radical then kiss good bye much of their tourism industry.
Turkey will never do that, they just talk tough game and that is it, like a loud little dog barking. Their entire military is based on US support, their military strength would collapse overnight without it. They cannot turn to Russia because of the investment in US equipment they have.

They know tourism is a large economic source, they will not touch that golden egg no matter how radical they get. Plus a lot of the population depends on this tourism, that is one way to undermine support.


Quote:
Originally Posted by victimofGM View Post
If Turkey becomes more radical Islamic, what could that mean for their current relations with Greece?
Nothing, those two are not going to get into with each other. It is internal policies, and how radical Turkey is will have little to do with its neighbors. Saudi Arabia is the most extreme Islamic country there is, and it has great relations with the West.
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Old 07-17-2016, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Southeast Michigan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boxus View Post
He was on vacation in the country, in Marmaris.




Seems to be quite a lot of military involved, but the coordination was just horrible. I suspect many subordinates did not go along with it, and rumor has it the plot was discovered so they had to start early, leaving no time for others to mobilize effectively.

They tried getting Erdogan, they attacked where he was staying, but he left right before the attack.




It was midnight so I doubt anyone was there when it started, but went there when it did.



Majority is in favor of not losing their heads, sort of like the standing ovation Stalin always got. But yea, the majority of parliament is the same party. I do not think they all speak in terms of Islamic government, but in authoritarian terms, the goal for the party to retain power permanently, which also happens to have a lot of fans of an Islamic style government (which works well to maintain one party power as oppose to real democracy).





The coup was poorly planned, a lot of people involved, but few carried it out on the ground. No one knows the reasons right now, but it seems senior commanders were not able to mobilize due to the coup being enacted early, or subordinates refused to comply, or they lost the will when Erdogan was not captured and rally citizens for support. Also, the coup plotters under estimated just how much support from the citizens Erdogan has; there were way too many jihadists types in those crowds for my comfort, not just simple anti-coup protesters.




Turkey will never do that, they just talk tough game and that is it, like a loud little dog barking. Their entire military is based on US support, their military strength would collapse overnight without it. They cannot turn to Russia because of the investment in US equipment they have.

They know tourism is a large economic source, they will not touch that golden egg no matter how radical they get. Plus a lot of the population depends on this tourism, that is one way to undermine support.




Nothing, those two are not going to get into with each other. It is internal policies, and how radical Turkey is will have little to do with its neighbors. Saudi Arabia is the most extreme Islamic country there is, and it has great relations with the West.
Except for exporting the worst kinds of terrorist preachers.
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:30 PM
 
15,042 posts, read 13,634,316 times
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Originally Posted by PrincessoftheCape View Post
I think the more stable Middle Eastern states (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the smaller emirates) wouldn't welcome anything that sees their economic relationship with the west further disrupted. While these areas rely on oil revenues, and full blown unrest in Turkey would see prices per barrel skyrocket, the continuing emergence of large-scale domestic production in the United States and Canada will only accelerate in the midst of any long-term crisis, which will further erode any remaining clout and wealth that the region wields.

Basically, the Saudis and their friends aren't happy with Iran to begin with - they certainly do not want another fanatical Islamic state to take the place of secular Turkey and scare the west into enhancing its exploitation of fossil fuel reserves. That's bad for business.

Erdogan's absence from the country is all the more reason why I think the coup was staged. Rule number one of any armed insurrection is to seize the current administrator, hold and - eventually - try and imprison/exile/execute him - and you certainly can't do that when he's hundreds of miles beyond your grasp. Moreover, Erdogan being out of the country allowed him to rapidly arrive back into the midst of his cheering and already-victorious domestic supporters like a conquering hero - it is imagery that only fuels his cause.

In the end, it's all a little too convenient. I consider the Turks to be rank amateurs in pretty much every arena from about the 18th Century onwards, but their armed forces should be capable enough to hold the country for more than twenty four hours. This reeks of a military purge from the get-go, and the end result of that can only be the eventual expulsion of Turkey from NATO, and a further strengthening of Russia's position. In fact, despite their past differences, if you're really seeking an external partner who might have assisted 'Der Turkish Fuhrer' in his machinations, look no further than comrade Putin.
Oh boy...
All I wanted to know, was did he ( Erdogan that is) ask for asylum in Germany or Qatar for this matter?
Because there were reports about it earlier.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ayyip-erdogan/

So it all turned out to be untrue then?
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Old 07-17-2016, 12:43 PM
 
15,545 posts, read 13,536,591 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy87 View Post
It does not. They have already be-headed soldiers of the uprising and humiliating hundreds of others. With the reports of the people even attacking the soldiers shows there really is no turning back from where the direction is going.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
Oh boy...
All I wanted to know, was did he ( Erdogan that is) ask for asylum in Germany or Qatar for this matter?
Because there were reports about it earlier.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ayyip-erdogan/

So it all turned out to be untrue then?
He could have perhaps requested just in case the coup was successful. I seriously doubt he was on his way to any of those places, the times do not add up from his departure from Marmaris to his arrival in Istanbul.

I do not think he was in the air the entire time, I think he landed at a safe zone to sort out what is going on, then departed for Istanbul since the coup was not able to take the city unlike Ankara which was more under seige.
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