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Old 09-08-2016, 04:32 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
17,382 posts, read 21,223,392 times
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But does South Korea want to be re-united with North Korea? Heavens No!!!!!

They saw how expensive it was for West Germany to re-unite with East Germany and it would be prohibitively expensive for South Korea to shell out the money for reunification, and add to that, selfishness. Better that North Korean joins China, and let them foot the bill to bring that country to some stage of normalcy.

Even those that have fled to South Korea from North Korea have been a challenge, any number of them suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, major health problems due to malnutrition, mental illness issues, and employment risks, as being used to a Communist government, they're at a loss in South Korea dealing with that terrifying word Competition!

Just finished reading Escape from Camp 14 by Blaine Harden, One Man's Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom In the West.
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Old 09-08-2016, 04:49 AM
 
Location: Guangzhou, China
9,779 posts, read 13,351,665 times
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I was thinking about this the other day... I actually can see China, of all people, doing Kim in, if he messed up too badly.

Although on the one hand, NK has long been China's only obvious ward in the world, NK has been acting increasingly erratic and against the words and wishes of Beijing - Little Kim is, in many ways, more of an autocrat than his dad or grandpa were - certainly, less respectful of China's patronage.

Let's say that SK/JP/US do one of their military drills in the region, and Kim decides to finally back up his bellicose ramblings. He starts launching missiles at the Navies, and orders a strike against the DMZ. SK/JP/US retaliate, and before you know it, there's a full-scale, army-to-army war brewing. SK would love to take a chunk out of NK; Japan would love to show the region that it's no longer afraid to go toe-to-toe; the US would generally be avoidant towards dropping a match into the powder keg, but it wouldn't have much of a choice and it would send a clear message right back to Beijing that at the end of the day, it can do what it wants, too.

Any military confrontation would result in the NK military getting stomped, badly; large chunks of the southern part of the country would end up being up-for-grabs to the South Koreans, and the Kim regime would be at risk of being totally destroyed. China would be under pressure to send in its own soldiers to back NK - though this would be catastrophically unpopular among the Chinese populace, and would risk putting China and the US against eachother and against the other two regional economic heavyweights. Basically, this would be economic and social disaster that would require a huge shift in policy and take at least a couple decades to recover from.

There would be a great incentive for China to simply back any generals remaining in Kim's army who would be sympathetic to a desire for relative peace, and who would be receptive and willing to depose Kim, install a military junta that would be more Maoist than Juche, and negotiate terms of a cease fire that would minimize any loss of NK land. With a puppet government, China would have the opportunity to tap into NK's resources, and via investments in infrastructure, also be able to mobilize its populace as low-cost laborers to act as a balance to China's own growing cost of doing business.

While still staunchly pro-China, the new NK leadership could take a much less confrontational and aggressive stance towards its neighbors, and increase foreign trade to line its (and by extension, their) coffers. The Chinese would be much more happy to sell or even give the NK military modern weaponry, as it would now be under its thumb, which would please the new military junta.

Whether Kim would suffer a Ceaușescu-like swift end, asserting his status as supreme leader up until the moment his connected with a 7.62mm round and exoloded, or would instead be put on trial and forced to admit his transgressions against the Korean people, to undo the cult of personality that has ruled NK for generations, it would most likely be necessary to eliminate him and also large swaths of his family and whatever members of his cabinet didn't go along with the coup, if nothing else to totally eradicate the possibility of him regaining power.

Not likely that any of this would happen, though it would be a possibility...
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Old 09-08-2016, 04:56 AM
 
Location: Guangzhou, China
9,779 posts, read 13,351,665 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tijlover View Post
But does South Korea want to be re-united with North Korea? Heavens No!!!!!

They saw how expensive it was for West Germany to re-unite with East Germany and it would be prohibitively expensive for South Korea to shell out the money for reunification, and add to that, selfishness. Better that North Korean joins China, and let them foot the bill to bring that country to some stage of normalcy.

Even those that have fled to South Korea from North Korea have been a challenge, any number of them suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, major health problems due to malnutrition, mental illness issues, and employment risks, as being used to a Communist government, they're at a loss in South Korea dealing with that terrifying word Competition!

Just finished reading Escape from Camp 14 by Blaine Harden, One Man's Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom In the West.
Of course SK doesn't want unification - at least, not in the same way that Germany had it... the standard of living and economic boom that SK has created for itself in the last couple decades would take an enormous nose-dive. At the very least, they would have to create a sort of SAR relationship like China and HK have, to limit the flood of low-skilled migrant workers coming from less prosperous areas of China into HK, overcrowding it further and draining its social services.

I think that, ideologically speaking, SK would loathe to see NK under total Chinese authority, but practically speaking, it would end up being better for SK. China would more likely use NK for economic purposes (see my post above) than as a proxy to sock it to SK, the US, or their allies. The occasional cross-border shelling, torpedoing, commando raids, etc would stop as China would have little interest in such aggression. The NK civilian population and a significant chunk of its military would simply revert to production with a huge influx of Chinese resources.
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Old 09-12-2016, 04:15 AM
 
4,680 posts, read 3,610,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Davy-040 View Post
Ju-ae will take over and reunite it with South Korea.
No, the Chinese will invade, install a puppet (sane and an improvement from fat Kim) and establish a 200 miles no fly and de militarized zone along the Yalu river. Korea won't be united anytime soon, especially given the recent south decision to station anti ballistic missiles. China won't allow a hostile and united Korea along its northeast border. Too bad for South Korea.
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Old 09-16-2016, 03:27 PM
 
5,631 posts, read 6,441,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
No, the Chinese will invade, install a puppet (sane and an improvement from fat Kim) and establish a 200 miles no fly and de militarized zone along the Yalu river. Korea won't be united anytime soon, especially given the recent south decision to station anti ballistic missiles. China won't allow a hostile and united Korea along its northeast border. Too bad for South Korea.
I don't think it would be South Korea that China doesn't want near their border, it would be US troops being stationed near their border. Right now, all US troops stationed in South Korea would have to go through North Korea by foot or vehicle to get to China.
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Old 09-16-2016, 05:12 PM
 
Location: In the heights
22,120 posts, read 23,642,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
No, the Chinese will invade, install a puppet (sane and an improvement from fat Kim) and establish a 200 miles no fly and de militarized zone along the Yalu river. Korea won't be united anytime soon, especially given the recent south decision to station anti ballistic missiles. China won't allow a hostile and united Korea along its northeast border. Too bad for South Korea.
China doesn't really have a particularly hostile relarionship with South Korea. I can see a Chinese government backing a slow unification but with caveats for the South Korea government to limit or close US bases. The US military presence isn't universally beloved in South Korea afterall.

This in the end can work favorably for China as it would mean an erratic pariah state would no longer be at its border, a Korean peninsula without US bases, and not having to deal with the economic impact in trying to govern a large impoverished and traumatized population with many strong cultural and linguistic differences.
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Old 09-16-2016, 05:44 PM
 
4,680 posts, read 3,610,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
China doesn't really have a particularly hostile relarionship with South Korea. I can see a Chinese government backing a slow unification but with caveats for the South Korea government to limit or close US bases. The US military presence isn't universally beloved in South Korea afterall.

This in the end can work favorably for China as it would mean an erratic pariah state would no longer be at its border, a Korean peninsula without US bases, and not having to deal with the economic impact in trying to govern a large impoverished and traumatized population with many strong cultural and linguistic differences.
Right. Basically, Korea can unite but it will have to return to its traditional role as a junior and friendly state that acknowledges China's security requirements. This means no more us bases. Otherwise there will be no reunification.
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Old 09-17-2016, 03:56 AM
 
12,686 posts, read 14,068,003 times
Reputation: 34762
Quote:
Originally Posted by Return2FL View Post
Will he go peacefully or will the little despot reach for the big red button as he is checking out?

Will the table be set for reunification?
It has already been arranged.

Upon the demise of Kim jong-um Donald Trump will quietly take over, donning a black wig and with a voice-over in Korean. The personnel change will go unnoticed by the North Koreans and the world.
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Old 09-17-2016, 09:19 AM
 
Location: Eindhoven, Netherlands
10,422 posts, read 12,412,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevxu View Post
It has already been arranged.

Upon the demise of Kim jong-um Donald Trump will quietly take over, donning a black wig and with a voice-over in Korean. The personnel change will go unnoticed by the North Koreans and the world.
By the time Kim Jong-un dies (probably in his mid-70's), Donald Trump will be between 112-116 but hey he's rich af, he can get the best doctors in the world so you never know.
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Old 09-17-2016, 11:16 AM
 
12,686 posts, read 14,068,003 times
Reputation: 34762
Quote:
Originally Posted by Davy-040 View Post
By the time Kim Jong-un dies (probably in his mid-70's), Donald Trump will be between 112-116 but hey he's rich af, he can get the best doctors in the world so you never know.
The Donald will never die. Ask him.
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