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Old 03-21-2018, 10:39 AM
 
116 posts, read 190,229 times
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For all you China experts, how do you see the recent declining trend in China's birth rate?

Is this good for the economy or bad? My observation is that it can't be exactly too bad since China's long had a population problem, but at the same time this does signal that China's no longer in the uber-rapid industrialization stage.
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:04 AM
 
Location: New Jersey and hating it
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Things have a way of going from one extreme to another. In the past, the problem is high birth rates and too many mouths to feed. In the foreseeable future, China could be facing low birth rate crisis like Japan and Western Europe have been facing. Why can’t things stay in moderation?
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:14 AM
 
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I was reading a Forbes article a while back and they estimate China will lose at least 400 million people in the next 80 years or so. That’s going to leave a lot of vacant buildings and towns. The population will continue to grow until the early 2020’s and it should peak around that time and then start to decline.

China’s construction growth will likely peak within a decade. It’s hard to imagine their economic growth will be sustainable.
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Old 03-21-2018, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Earth
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good

less soldiers in the PLA
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:27 AM
 
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China is the largest manufacturer of drones and robots. The machines will fight future battles, not human. Less people is not a problem, unbalanced population is.
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Old 03-22-2018, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Earth
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those can be hacked
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Macao
16,265 posts, read 43,043,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by attisbons View Post
For all you China experts, how do you see the recent declining trend in China's birth rate?

Is this good for the economy or bad? My observation is that it can't be exactly too bad since China's long had a population problem, but at the same time this does signal that China's no longer in the uber-rapid industrialization stage.
Because of American consumption and American economic models, there is this American hysteria about an ever-growing increase of NEW CONSUMERS and NEW WORKERS ever adding to the economic pie. This is extreme short-term thinking.

The U.S. is governed by short-term gains demanded by corporations and corporate lobbyists. It's THEIR MODEL, not a sustainable model.

Increased population is fantastic for corporations in the short-term, but horrific for societies in the long-term.
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Earth
7,644 posts, read 6,434,577 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger Beer View Post
Because of American consumption and American economic models, there is this American hysteria about an ever-growing increase of NEW CONSUMERS and NEW WORKERS ever adding to the economic pie. This is extreme short-term thinking.

The U.S. is governed by short-term gains demanded by corporations and corporate lobbyists. It's THEIR MODEL, not a sustainable model.

Increased population is fantastic for corporations in the short-term, but horrific for societies in the long-term.
well, if you look at russia, their white "christian" population is declining. These means less soldiers to fight their jihadi under belly.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:44 PM
 
280 posts, read 336,465 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by attisbons View Post
For all you China experts, how do you see the recent declining trend in China's birth rate?

Is this good for the economy or bad? My observation is that it can't be exactly too bad since China's long had a population problem, but at the same time this does signal that China's no longer in the uber-rapid industrialization stage.
Definitely good. Asia is over populated and I think the problems that comes with overpopulation definitely outweighs the benefits. Quality over quantity.

Short term pain however, in lower taxes, possible manpower in the army (but less of a need these days).

Think about the benefits - fewer people, but generally better educated and wiser people. People wouldn't be squashed like sardines in big cities, less competition for resources etc.

The Earth needs FEWER people folks.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:52 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 3,460,051 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willister View Post
Definitely good. Asia is over populated and I think the problems that comes with overpopulation definitely outweighs the benefits. Quality over quantity.

Short term pain however, in lower taxes, possible manpower in the army (but less of a need these days).

Think about the benefits - fewer people, but generally better educated and wiser people. People wouldn't be squashed like sardines in big cities, less competition for resources etc.

The Earth needs FEWER people folks.
The Earth needs controlled and sustainable growth. Having fewer and fewer people means that you'll eventually run out of labor and could potentially become extinct. South Korea even went so far as to predict it's own extinction ( sometime in 2700's) if current population trends are maintained.
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