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Old 12-21-2016, 11:24 AM
 
6,722 posts, read 6,597,578 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
The future is on India's side - I see it surpassing China economically in a decade
And yes I have been to both countries quite frequently.
Wow then you are extremely biased. In a decade? Even if China stops developing, India cannot catch up.
Since the 1990s, many people in the west keep saying China will collapse, but it never happened. The growth will certainly slow down, which is normal.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:35 PM
 
1,089 posts, read 477,070 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
... India is basically where China was about 20 years go ...
So, you think China 1996 = India 2016?

Here's a picture of Shanghai in 1996



Here's a picture Mumbai in 2016

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Old 12-21-2016, 12:51 PM
 
12,253 posts, read 18,390,529 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bettafish View Post
Wow then you are extremely biased. In a decade? Even if China stops developing, India cannot catch up.
Since the 1990s, many people in the west keep saying China will collapse, but it never happened. The growth will certainly slow down, which is normal.
No bias. I live in the US and not either of these two countries. But China is growing at about 4% (per estimations, we really don't know), and India is growing at about twice that rate - 7.9%. Perhaps my estimation "in a decade" is way too optimistic and flippant, I had to rush my initial response. This article say "by 2050", so I stand corrected.

Can India Surpass China

I don't know about "since the 1990s" but no one denies that China is not undergoing some economic issues right now and is significantly slowing down. No one also argues that India is growing at a significantly faster pace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by txjl123 View Post
So, you think China 1996 = India 2016?

Here's a picture of Shanghai in 1996

Here's a picture Mumbai in 2016
Since a picture of a city skyline is irrelevant to this discussion on economic comparisons, I have no response. I can tell you that picture of Shanghai is on a surprisingly clear day, when I go there it's smog filled, same with Beijing, Mumbai's only slightly better. Delhi - don't even get me started. Both countries have pollution issues that will hinder there development.

Last edited by Dd714; 12-21-2016 at 01:02 PM..
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Old 12-21-2016, 01:43 PM
 
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its a matter of govt policy and how they implement these policies. I submit India or any country can follow in Chinas footsteps if they follow all what they did. size in itself is an advantage
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Old 12-21-2016, 07:51 PM
 
276 posts, read 204,296 times
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In theory, India should be ahead in the long term if things work out. What the hell has the government been doing since the 60s? During the early 60s, India was slightly ahead of China on every measurable indicator added to this, leftover infrastructure from the British was probably better than what had been left over from the Russians and Japanese in China. When you look at the Indian advantages, it is even more stark:


- Grasp of English, so it was much easier for them to attract FDI and set up offices.
- Inherited the British law system, a much transparent and widely respected system.
- India has much less hinterland with a long coastline on both sides. One could easily serve Asia and the other Europe/Middle East. Geographically it is much better than China which just faces the Pacific.




Having said that they mostly share the same if not worse problems than China....corruption, pollutions and probably worse - overpopulation and a somewhat more backward population in general.
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:22 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
No bias. I live in the US and not either of these two countries. But China is growing at about 4% (per estimations, we really don't know), and India is growing at about twice that rate - 7.9%. Perhaps my estimation "in a decade" is way too optimistic and flippant, I had to rush my initial response. This article say "by 2050", so I stand corrected.
If you are talking about GDP growth, China had 7.7% in 2013, 7.4% in 2014, and 6.9% in 2015.
It is slowing down, but not as slow as 4%. The sales of cars, cell phones etc. keep increasing in China, which means the growth of economy is real. And it is said the service industry in China is undervalued.
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:28 PM
 
6,722 posts, read 6,597,578 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willister View Post
In theory, India should be ahead in the long term if things work out. What the hell has the government been doing since the 60s? During the early 60s, India was slightly ahead of China on every measurable indicator added to this, leftover infrastructure from the British was probably better than what had been left over from the Russians and Japanese in China. When you look at the Indian advantages, it is even more stark:
The literacy rate of China is 96.4% (94.5% for females). The literacy rate of India is 72.1% (62.8% for females).
In China, even the extremely poor people in mountainous regions can usually read and write, even if their native language is not really Chinese.
So you can see Chairman Mao did a great job to educate (poor) Chinese people, and the successive Chinese leaders continued the success.

The literacy rates of North Korea, Vietnam and Cuba are all very high. Probably a good thing for "Communists" to brag about.

Last edited by Bettafish; 12-21-2016 at 10:39 PM..
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:49 PM
 
Location: Earth
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If modi can fix india, India will be ahead in the long term. The red chinese do not respect free exchange of ideas. This holds them back and stops them from surpassing america. THe chinese were lucky to have smart leaders starting with Deng xiaoping. They are also autocratic. The politburo can do whatever they want. THey do not have democracy to stop them.
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Old 12-22-2016, 09:51 AM
 
12,253 posts, read 18,390,529 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bettafish View Post
If you are talking about GDP growth, China had 7.7% in 2013, 7.4% in 2014, and 6.9% in 2015.
It is slowing down, but not as slow as 4%. The sales of cars, cell phones etc. keep increasing in China, which means the growth of economy is real. And it is said the service industry in China is undervalued.
Everyone knows the rates that China reports aren't true, they have no checks and balances to ensure accuracy. What is it really? No one knows - below 6% certaintly, 4% maybe, maybe lower.


China

China’s True Growth Is a Mystery; Economists Weigh the Clues

Official first-quarter GDP growth of 7% is overstated, experts agree, but pinning down the real number is a head-scratcher
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Old 12-22-2016, 04:01 PM
 
4,666 posts, read 3,607,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
I think the premise is incorrect. The only thing that China and India have in common is the mass of population. Otherwise, right now India is basically where China was about 20 years go - ready to explode economically. On the contrast, China now is about where Japan was 20 years ago - ready to collapse economically.
The future will tell, both countries are overheating somewhat, with inflation and overbuilding roaring it's ugly head. The only difference is we just don't know how much in trouble China is economically, as the information is government controlled. India has infrastructure issues, but it has some stronger ability for growth in the future than China has and has some good solid foundations in IT right now. The future is on India's side - I see it surpassing China economically in a decade
And yes I have been to both countries quite frequently.
India is not china of the 1990s....no way. India is in a class by itself, given its incredible mess and filth. That's the reality of the country. You can love it or hate it, but the poorest part of China is still more orderly and cleaner than most of India.

And, china is ahead of Japan in military might and certain technologies. But overall social development? It's at least 50 years behind Japan. It can beat the poop out of Japan, but it is dirtier, messier and disorderly compare to Japan. India is hopeless.
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