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Old 03-22-2018, 07:53 AM
 
4,674 posts, read 3,607,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Chinese Taipei is an independent country in China's sphere of influence. That is all. The longer it is separated, the longer the people grow apart. China cannot invade Taiwan successfully. It can only damage it, which there is no guarantee the world would stand by and allow it.
Who is going to do anything about it, especially if taiwan steps over the lines clearly stated in the Anti-Seccession Law? You need to update yourself on China raw capability of late. And in a few years, the military disparity will be even greater. Taiwan would commit suicide.
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Old 03-22-2018, 07:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dangerous-Boy View Post
let them do it.

Lets see what happens.

If the CCP lose, they'll lose their mandate to rule.
Right. That's my point. It's the CCP's cake to win or lose. But it wont start the fight. Taiwan and the US will have to step over the red line.
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Old 03-22-2018, 08:58 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
78,526 posts, read 70,430,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by botticelli View Post
China has no interest in "invading" Taiwan. Beijing hates nothing more than wars or any political stability.

Unless of course Taiwan for some reason stupidly claims independence itself. Then a war is almost inevitable. For the US, I am sure it also knows it's not in its best interest to vex China. The island of Taiwan is simply not worth getting into a full fledged war with another nuclear power. The American people won't allow it considering it really doesn't do any good for them.
"...claims independence"? AFAIK, it hasn't stopped calling itself the ROC. Did I miss something? But I suppose that doesn't mean it has ever claimed independence; the ROC title conveys its claim that it's the only legitimate authority over all of China (including Tibet). So, technically, that's not a declaration of independence for Formosa.
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:24 AM
 
1,001 posts, read 451,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Chinese Taipei is an independent country in China's sphere of influence. That is all. The longer it is separated, the longer the people grow apart. China cannot invade Taiwan successfully. It can only damage it, which there is no guarantee the world would stand by and allow it.
"Chinese Taipei"?! What is this, the Olympics? Nobody in real life calls Taiwan "Chinese Taipei." (Taipei is just one city of many in Taiwan. It would be like calling China "Taiwanese Beijing".)

The rest of your statement is generally accurate, though.

Last edited by SkylarkPhotoBooth; 03-22-2018 at 09:33 AM..
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Old 03-22-2018, 09:30 AM
 
1,001 posts, read 451,643 times
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Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
Yes, but taiwan has been a part of the Chinese empire/state/republic since the beginning of the Qing.
Right....until 1895, when it ceased to be. That's 123 years ago. Since then there have been a grand total of about 5 years (between the end of WWII and the end of the Chinese civil war) when Taiwan was controlled by the Chinese mainland government.

Ancient history at this point. Do you think India is still a part of the British Empire, too? What about the US, for that matter?
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Old 03-22-2018, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Boston, MA
1,854 posts, read 3,415,954 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pennyone View Post
Well, so don't you think the chance to unify by force, which is looking like the ONLY option, is as good as any for the PLA to get some experience? Sure it lacks experience, but where to start? Practice on the viets, or the filipinos? What? Taiwan is as good a practice as any.

I am amused by folks who are anti-China who on the one hand berate China for being militarily aggressive, and then on the other hand point to China's military inexperience. Which is it folks? why is China so militarily inexperienced? Is it because it is indeed unlike some other country who is in perpetual never ending war (the US)? And, if inexperience is the problem, don't you think the Chinese should remedy the problem? If so, how? which little country should China use to gain experience?
How about China invading North Korea then? That would be something new and unexpected.

I am trying to introduce a rational explanation of Mainland China's chances at taking Taiwan and here you are trying to needlessly argue with me. You don't know my personal political views and yet you accuse me of being "anti-China". I never said China was sure to lose a war with Taiwan. It will very likely win but as with any conflict there is that slim margin that it may lose or may win but only after a costly bumble. Name a conflict in history and especially modern history in which everything went the way for the aggressor. Let's not forget that invading Taiwan is akin to fighting a civil war. I sincerely doubt the PLA will nuke Taiwan or bomb it to kingdom come. Taiwan in the eyes of the Chinese is a Chinese province after all, the land and the people have value to the Beijing government, and in order to take it, the PLA would have to apply slower and potentially costlier methods.

The last time China invaded another country was in 1979 when it invaded Vietnam and then quickly retreated. Believe whomever you want because you'll hear different answers from different sources. The Chinese government claimed victory for the Sino-Vietnamese War and said it pulled out because it achieved its objectives. The Vietnamese and others refute this claim saying the PLA was forced to retreat after taking on unexpectedly heavy casualties the further they penetrated. What is known as fact is that prisoners were taken by both sides So who do you believe? Was the PLA prepared for war then and is it prepared now?

If you do a Google search, you'll find different articles and different opinions, so much that it's mere speculation. It's almost like arguing who will win the next Super Bowl based on the strengths and abilities of the teams. Articles written in American media outlets like CNN will say one thing and Chinese media like Xinhua will say another. I'm not bringing any of that into my discussion because that is not my point.
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Old 03-22-2018, 06:32 PM
 
Location: Earth
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the vietnamese killed the PLA's red butt
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Old 03-23-2018, 03:11 AM
 
1,001 posts, read 451,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban Peasant View Post
How about China invading North Korea then?
Ha. Good point! And North Koreans are probably the only people in the whole region whose human rights situation would actually improve if they were ruled by Beijing, so it could even be seen as a humanitarian cause!

Of course, China kind of likes having NK as a buffer between its own border and the large US military presence in SK. They're probably not going to give that up on purpose any time soon.
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Old 03-23-2018, 07:48 AM
 
4,674 posts, read 3,607,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkylarkPhotoBooth View Post
Right....until 1895, when it ceased to be. That's 123 years ago. Since then there have been a grand total of about 5 years (between the end of WWII and the end of the Chinese civil war) when Taiwan was controlled by the Chinese mainland government.

Ancient history at this point. Do you think India is still a part of the British Empire, too? What about the US, for that matter?
BS, you can go do some research on the Potsdam Declaration and the attending articles of surrender that Imperial Japan and the ROC signed at the end of WWII. That will clearly tell you who taiwan island belongs to. You should probably brush up on your history before you drag something historical out to support your claim.

And yes, taiwan is under the ROC and the ROC used to cover all of China, including Tibet and even Outer Mongolia. So, yes, Taiwan island is very much part of a "China" union. The governments are currently two....the ROC and the PRC. So, if someone stupidly declare tomorrow that the government on Taiwan island changed to the ROT, then there will be an invasion because it is the PRC's duty as on of the two Chinese governments to maintain the territorial integrity of this larger "China." In essence, if Tsai and her idiot minions decides tomorrow to absolve the ROC name, they will have in essence killed a Chinese government and stolen Chinese territory by creating a Taiwan Republic (which currently does not exist). That will invite a PRC invasion to protect Chinese territory from a foreign takeover. If tomorrow, a US warship or a japanese warship dock in one of taiwan's ports without the ok of Beijing, that will also constitute a foreign invasion of sort and invite a PRC invasion to protect Chinese territory. Understand now?
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Old 03-23-2018, 07:50 AM
 
4,674 posts, read 3,607,316 times
Reputation: 7379
Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban Peasant View Post
How about China invading North Korea then? That would be something new and unexpected.

I am trying to introduce a rational explanation of Mainland China's chances at taking Taiwan and here you are trying to needlessly argue with me. You don't know my personal political views and yet you accuse me of being "anti-China". I never said China was sure to lose a war with Taiwan. It will very likely win but as with any conflict there is that slim margin that it may lose or may win but only after a costly bumble. Name a conflict in history and especially modern history in which everything went the way for the aggressor. Let's not forget that invading Taiwan is akin to fighting a civil war. I sincerely doubt the PLA will nuke Taiwan or bomb it to kingdom come. Taiwan in the eyes of the Chinese is a Chinese province after all, the land and the people have value to the Beijing government, and in order to take it, the PLA would have to apply slower and potentially costlier methods.

The last time China invaded another country was in 1979 when it invaded Vietnam and then quickly retreated. Believe whomever you want because you'll hear different answers from different sources. The Chinese government claimed victory for the Sino-Vietnamese War and said it pulled out because it achieved its objectives. The Vietnamese and others refute this claim saying the PLA was forced to retreat after taking on unexpectedly heavy casualties the further they penetrated. What is known as fact is that prisoners were taken by both sides So who do you believe? Was the PLA prepared for war then and is it prepared now?

If you do a Google search, you'll find different articles and different opinions, so much that it's mere speculation. It's almost like arguing who will win the next Super Bowl based on the strengths and abilities of the teams. Articles written in American media outlets like CNN will say one thing and Chinese media like Xinhua will say another. I'm not bringing any of that into my discussion because that is not my point.
Yes, that's right. The Chinese military hasn't changed since 1979....LOL Keep dreaming, ok.
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