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Old 02-28-2018, 03:54 PM
 
988 posts, read 715,857 times
Reputation: 3803

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
You do know the two examples you used gave their country free healthcare and a stable economy and only fell Because the US government bombed them to the ground. Today they are hardly free and prosperous democracies.
Yes, the Arab Spring had nothing to do with it. First came the bombs, then came the western propaganda about some popular uprisings. Sure thing, Minitrue.

Countries that slide into dictatorship end up one of two ways: Qasi-stable ultra-repressive hermit kingdoms like the DPRK, or semi-failed states like Syria. Which one will China become?

Even Putin has the good sense to dance between being the hidden hand and the front man. Even though he fashions himself a strong man, he doesn't want to share the fate of strongmen throughout history.
Imperial dynasties have gone the way of the dodo with the invention of the telegraph. Xi's a dictator, plain and simple. The only way out of the corner he is painting that doesn't lead to prison or death is rapid distribution of power back to the people, or at least the Party congress. Xi is such a megalomaniac that he apparently didn't get the message. He's setting himself up for a fall and his country up for revolution.

It's a favorite claim that China is playing the long game. I even believed it, during the days of economic (and limited socio-political) liberalization, when their economy grew by leaps and bounds. This move makes it look like that's a farce and the Chinese actually are as clueless as they are rudderless; allowing their already-corrupt one-party government to be completely co-opted by a despot with delusions of grandeur.

This is the beginning of the end of the Chinese Miracle. What a shame to see a country with so much potential diminished through self-inflicted wounds.
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Old 02-28-2018, 05:03 PM
 
12,265 posts, read 18,393,933 times
Reputation: 19088
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
Yes, the Arab Spring had nothing to do with it. First came the bombs, then came the western propaganda about some popular uprisings. Sure thing, Minitrue.

Countries that slide into dictatorship end up one of two ways: Qasi-stable ultra-repressive hermit kingdoms like the DPRK, or semi-failed states like Syria. Which one will China become?

Even Putin has the good sense to dance between being the hidden hand and the front man. Even though he fashions himself a strong man, he doesn't want to share the fate of strongmen throughout history.
Imperial dynasties have gone the way of the dodo with the invention of the telegraph. Xi's a dictator, plain and simple. The only way out of the corner he is painting that doesn't lead to prison or death is rapid distribution of power back to the people, or at least the Party congress. Xi is such a megalomaniac that he apparently didn't get the message. He's setting himself up for a fall and his country up for revolution.

It's a favorite claim that China is playing the long game. I even believed it, during the days of economic (and limited socio-political) liberalization, when their economy grew by leaps and bounds. This move makes it look like that's a farce and the Chinese actually are as clueless as they are rudderless; allowing their already-corrupt one-party government to be completely co-opted by a despot with delusions of grandeur.

This is the beginning of the end of the Chinese Miracle. What a shame to see a country with so much potential diminished through self-inflicted wounds.
I would discourage any attempt at a rational discussion with that user.

But my opinion - Xi doesn't have the "cult of personality" to be that megalomaniac dictator that you imagine. He is not Castro, he is not Stalin, he is not the Jung-un dynasty, that all takes more than power and authority. More importantly - he is not Mao. And the people of China now, they are more enlightened that the times of Mao. They have had there taste of freedom. Now, they are not there yet - the people of China are happy, for the time being, to give up personal freedom for economic freedom. But if that economic freedom goes, as it does for every one-party/one-person despot, than the China people will not stand still at this stage of prosperity.

The Chinese Miracle is already dead, in a sense. The economy has slowed down, the mess of the economy hidden from us and there own because they manage the numbers. It's a cooked book. The economic reforms from the 90's were very successful, but the one party system and the state socialism has been tweaked, stretched and modified as much as it can under the current political system. One party systems are never successful long term. Let them find out for themselves. Xi and the politburo see themeselves as miracle workers. They have yet to face reality. When the Chinese people find out they can no longer afford new Iphones and Toyotas, the political system will change...in time.
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Old 02-28-2018, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Manchester NH
9,577 posts, read 2,644,001 times
Reputation: 2547
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
Yes, the Arab Spring had nothing to do with it. First came the bombs, then came the western propaganda about some popular uprisings. Sure thing, Minitrue.

Countries that slide into dictatorship end up one of two ways: Qasi-stable ultra-repressive hermit kingdoms like the DPRK, or semi-failed states like Syria. Which one will China become?

Even Putin has the good sense to dance between being the hidden hand and the front man. Even though he fashions himself a strong man, he doesn't want to share the fate of strongmen throughout history.
Imperial dynasties have gone the way of the dodo with the invention of the telegraph. Xi's a dictator, plain and simple. The only way out of the corner he is painting that doesn't lead to prison or death is rapid distribution of power back to the people, or at least the Party congress. Xi is such a megalomaniac that he apparently didn't get the message. He's setting himself up for a fall and his country up for revolution.

It's a favorite claim that China is playing the long game. I even believed it, during the days of economic (and limited socio-political) liberalization, when their economy grew by leaps and bounds. This move makes it look like that's a farce and the Chinese actually are as clueless as they are rudderless; allowing their already-corrupt one-party government to be completely co-opted by a despot with delusions of grandeur.

This is the beginning of the end of the Chinese Miracle. What a shame to see a country with so much potential diminished through self-inflicted wounds.
I guess you could be right but in such a case Xi could (eventually) step down and become an emperor like figurehead and let the rest of the party run things.
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Old 02-28-2018, 09:30 PM
 
653 posts, read 581,409 times
Reputation: 699
Good comments Dd714. Completly agree.
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:10 PM
 
117 posts, read 64,160 times
Reputation: 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post

....It's a favorite claim that China is playing the long game. I even believed it, during the days of economic (and limited socio-political) liberalization, when their economy grew by leaps and bounds. This move makes it look like that's a farce and the Chinese actually are as clueless as they are rudderless; allowing their already-corrupt one-party government to be completely co-opted by a despot with delusions of grandeur.

This is the beginning of the end of the Chinese Miracle. What a shame to see a country with so much potential diminished through self-inflicted wounds.

Totally different systems. It is like compare orange to apple. China is not like the West. China is running by meritocracy much like a corporation. If you are competent and demonstrate your abilities to lead and innovate, even if you are poor, you can rise through the ranks to the top and stay in the top. No wonder most China's politicians has engineering and science degree. Meritocracy is the mandate of heaven in China. It has survived for thousands of years. Most people in China find it fair and respect this system. It is fairly stable structure. If this is broken, they probably will have a revolution to restore back to it.

Whereas the West runs by popularity much like a beauty contest. If you are a sweet talker, you will get vote. You will become popular. You can become the president. No ones really care if you have ability to lead or not. Most politicians in US are lawyers.
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Old 02-28-2018, 10:12 PM
 
117 posts, read 64,160 times
Reputation: 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
...
The Chinese Miracle is already dead, in a sense. The economy has slowed down, the mess of the economy hidden from us and there own because they manage the numbers. It's a cooked book. The economic reforms from the 90's were very successful, but the one party system and the state socialism has been tweaked, stretched and modified as much as it can under the current political system. One party systems are never successful long term. Let them find out for themselves. Xi and the politburo see themeselves as miracle workers. They have yet to face reality. When the Chinese people find out they can no longer afford new Iphones and Toyotas, the political system will change...in time.
I think China probably underestimates their GDP. It would be much higher if they include rural into their GDP calculation. Most things in the rural are not subject to taxes like housing, sales, etc... It is very hard to estimate without tax information.
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Old 03-01-2018, 01:28 AM
 
Location: Tulsa
1,802 posts, read 804,562 times
Reputation: 1839
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidmun View Post
Totally different systems. It is like compare orange to apple. China is not like the West. China is running by meritocracy much like a corporation. If you are competent and demonstrate your abilities to lead and innovate, even if you are poor, you can rise through the ranks to the top and stay in the top. No wonder most China's politicians has engineering and science degree. Meritocracy is the mandate of heaven in China. It has survived for thousands of years. Most people in China find it fair and respect this system. It is fairly stable structure. If this is broken, they probably will have a revolution to restore back to it.

Whereas the West runs by popularity much like a beauty contest. If you are a sweet talker, you will get vote. You will become popular. You can become the president. No ones really care if you have ability to lead or not. Most politicians in US are lawyers.
Xi Jinping is ridiculously uneducated and incompetent.

But his father, Xi Zhongxun, was a founding father of Chinese communist party.

Very few Chinese find it fair and I don't personally know anyone who respects Xi Jinping.
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Old 03-01-2018, 05:43 AM
 
2,776 posts, read 1,011,797 times
Reputation: 1770
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
Not this again...you lost all credibility when you claimed the N. Korea fat guys sister, the head of propaganda, must be a good person because she was "pretty" in a prior thread, as well as a few other bizzare statements.
I remember that statement. It's a good thing sirens are mythical creatures as I would hate to imagine how that encounter would play out for TC.
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Old 03-01-2018, 11:53 AM
 
988 posts, read 715,857 times
Reputation: 3803
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dd714 View Post
I would discourage any attempt at a rational discussion with that user.

But my opinion - Xi doesn't have the "cult of personality" to be that megalomaniac dictator that you imagine. He is not Castro, he is not Stalin, he is not the Jung-un dynasty, that all takes more than power and authority. More importantly - he is not Mao. And the people of China now, they are more enlightened that the times of Mao. They have had there taste of freedom. Now, they are not there yet - the people of China are happy, for the time being, to give up personal freedom for economic freedom. But if that economic freedom goes, as it does for every one-party/one-person despot, than the China people will not stand still at this stage of prosperity.

The Chinese Miracle is already dead, in a sense. The economy has slowed down, the mess of the economy hidden from us and there own because they manage the numbers. It's a cooked book. The economic reforms from the 90's were very successful, but the one party system and the state socialism has been tweaked, stretched and modified as much as it can under the current political system. One party systems are never successful long term. Let them find out for themselves. Xi and the politburo see themeselves as miracle workers. They have yet to face reality. When the Chinese people find out they can no longer afford new Iphones and Toyotas, the political system will change...in time.
That's the concern. What is Xi going to do when the economy grinds to a halt and the people become restless? The new US tariffs on steel (and solar) are the rumblings of this impending storm.

As Winterfell (and all sane people) hopes, I too hope he takes all the power he's aggregated and gives it away. However, I doubt he jailed and assasinated his political opponents just so he could turn tail and give it all up the moment the going gets tough.

More likely he will start an external conflict to try to stay abreast of the collapsing economy by riding a wave of ginned-up patriotism--at the expense of thousands, if not millions, of lives. You say "He's not Mao" but he might end up just as big of a killer.

This new dictatorship is destabilizing China and the entire region. It's bad news for everyone. My optimistic prediction is a few limited naval skirmishes with Japan. However, we could see a catastrophe like the invasion of Taiwan.

Lets hope that his grip on power weakens so that someone deposes him before he leads the world down that terrible path.

Or, if you want the unicorns and butterflies version: let's hope China's economic miracle continues, they enjoy eternal stability, and their standard of living constantly increases so that no conflict is ever necessary. If I could wave a magic wand, that's the future I would choose. Whether I like Xi or not is as relevant as whether I like Trump or not. I want the best outcome for the most people, regardless of what a-hole is in charge.
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Old 03-01-2018, 12:40 PM
 
12,265 posts, read 18,393,933 times
Reputation: 19088
Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
That's the concern. What is Xi going to do when the economy grinds to a halt and the people become restless? The new US tariffs on steel (and solar) are the rumblings of this impending storm.

As Winterfell (and all sane people) hopes, I too hope he takes all the power he's aggregated and gives it away. However, I doubt he jailed and assasinated his political opponents just so he could turn tail and give it all up the moment the going gets tough.

More likely he will start an external conflict to try to stay abreast of the collapsing economy by riding a wave of ginned-up patriotism--at the expense of thousands, if not millions, of lives. You say "He's not Mao" but he might end up just as big of a killer.

This new dictatorship is destabilizing China and the entire region. It's bad news for everyone. My optimistic prediction is a few limited naval skirmishes with Japan. However, we could see a catastrophe like the invasion of Taiwan.

Lets hope that his grip on power weakens so that someone deposes him before he leads the world down that terrible path.

Or, if you want the unicorns and butterflies version: let's hope China's economic miracle continues, they enjoy eternal stability, and their standard of living constantly increases so that no conflict is ever necessary. If I could wave a magic wand, that's the future I would choose. Whether I like Xi or not is as relevant as whether I like Trump or not. I want the best outcome for the most people, regardless of what a-hole is in charge.
When people become restless he will simply be replaced. I'm not saying China will collapse in some economic despair, just that they will no longer experience the growth of the previous 2 decades, recessions and depressions will occur. In spite of the fear of Xi becoming a dictator, China has and always will be an oligarchy, managed by the consensus of a small group of party members. No mater how many leadership positions he takes, he still is subject to the politburo. Even Mao was dropped from a leadership rule by these members during the last decade or so of his life, becoming only a figurehead.

Likewise I would not read into any actual physical hostility with the west. Both the west and east, specifically the US and China, are too interwined and interdependent on each other via trade and business. Any other talk is only fit for prepper fantasies. Both sides will argue over there respective state interests, but such matters will be fought over conference rooms and diplomatic tables, as well as the typical subterfuge actions (spying, particularly via the internet, etc).
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