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Old 04-02-2018, 08:15 PM
 
Location: DC area
82 posts, read 50,814 times
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It's definitely a bad thing for China that there are so few babies being born each year. Who is going to support the elderly as China ages? At the rate it's going, China will end up having 1 working age adult to support every 2 retirees/people too old to work. The Chinese economy will slug along like a snail. Young people bring dynamism to a national economy.
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Old 04-02-2018, 09:17 PM
 
662 posts, read 588,650 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkylarkPhotoBooth View Post
This isn't an "IMO" thing. The facts are out there. It was roughly 120 boys per 100 girls for many years, which is why I said 30 to 25. Not 30 to 22 and sure as hell not 30 to 1.

(Yes, perhaps some girls "weren't registered," but it would have to be a very large number to be statistically significant in terms of the imbalance.)


So provide the "facts" that state the ratio is 30 to 25. Geez chill out. You sound very frustrated. I hope today is a better day then yesterday was. Have an Easter chocolate egg.
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:23 PM
 
Location: Earth
4,539 posts, read 3,117,106 times
Reputation: 3373
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeinChina View Post
So provide the "facts" that state the ratio is 30 to 25. Geez chill out. You sound very frustrated. I hope today is a better day then yesterday was. Have an Easter chocolate egg.
easter eggs are too sweet
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Old 04-03-2018, 12:08 AM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
4,488 posts, read 1,709,298 times
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The birth rate is a result of economic security, not a cause of it.

Two simple factors apply downward pressure to the birth rate. 1) A reduction of the need to have more children, to replace those who die in infancy, as the reliability of medical care improves. 2) A reduction of the need of parents to depend in old age on the support of their children. And before old age, reduced need to depend on household members for domestic productivity.

There is a very consistent correlation of these factors, in all societies, and there always has been.
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Old 04-03-2018, 02:01 AM
 
662 posts, read 588,650 times
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Agreed. I ask my colleagues here in Guangzhou why don't they want to have that second child, and almost all of them say raising a child in a big city in China is too expensive now. Perhaps in 5 years from now, people in China will be even more financially stable and with more disposable income want to have a larger family. Regardless, interesting times in China.
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Old 04-03-2018, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
4,488 posts, read 1,709,298 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeinChina View Post
Agreed. I ask my colleagues here in Guangzhou why don't they want to have that second child, and almost all of them say raising a child in a big city in China is too expensive now. Perhaps in 5 years from now, people in China will be even more financially stable and with more disposable income want to have a larger family. Regardless, interesting times in China.
That doesn't seem very well thought out. It would seem to me that for a young couple, having a first child would double the household cost of living, and a second child would further raise it by only a very tiny increment.
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Old 04-03-2018, 05:31 PM
 
3,159 posts, read 1,465,710 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by attisbons View Post
For all you China experts, how do you see the recent declining trend in China's birth rate?

Is this good for the economy or bad? My observation is that it can't be exactly too bad since China's long had a population problem, but at the same time this does signal that China's no longer in the uber-rapid industrialization stage.
I think if you were to ask an economist, they would say that it is bad because their population is very much ageing and if there aren't enough workers in the economy to pay into the system, it will become very expensive to take care of the elderly. For instance, I don't think the US's situation is as bad as China but even here, social security and medicare will have to be addressed due to the huge baby boomer population and there not being enough workers in the economy to support their population.
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Old 04-03-2018, 07:31 PM
 
6,731 posts, read 6,625,020 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DreamerD View Post
I think if you were to ask an economist, they would say that it is bad because their population is very much ageing and if there aren't enough workers in the economy to pay into the system, it will become very expensive to take care of the elderly. For instance, I don't think the US's situation is as bad as China but even here, social security and medicare will have to be addressed due to the huge baby boomer population and there not being enough workers in the economy to support their population.
In China, children usually pay a lot of their old parents' medical bills. It is also required by law that children financially support their elderly parents if their parents have difficulties.

In America, it is impossible to require people to pay their parents' bill.

So there is some difference.
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Old 04-03-2018, 11:14 PM
 
1,039 posts, read 461,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeinChina View Post
So provide the "facts" that state the ratio is 30 to 25. Geez chill out. You sound very frustrated. I hope today is a better day then yesterday was. Have an Easter chocolate egg.
"The facts are out there" was your cue to google if you wanted to find them, like I did. I'm not doing your homework for you. And yes, I do get frustrated with people who confuse quantitative data with opinions, but I think most rational/educated people do. Yesterday was a great day, by the way, as is today. I appreciate your interest in my well-being!
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Old 04-04-2018, 12:36 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,782 posts, read 5,142,063 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeinChina View Post
Agreed. I ask my colleagues here in Guangzhou why don't they want to have that second child, and almost all of them say raising a child in a big city in China is too expensive now. Perhaps in 5 years from now, people in China will be even more financially stable and with more disposable income want to have a larger family. Regardless, interesting times in China.
That is so not happening. The richer a country becomes the lower the birth rate will be. See Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The fertility rate in some of the richest Chinese provinces is even lower than countries with the lowest fertility rate. It will only go down from now.

The only way to solve a demographic collapse is through a strong welfare state or through immigration. China has neither of those.
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