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Old 04-04-2018, 04:20 AM
 
117 posts, read 64,252 times
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Most people in China get married at very young age. Typical at age 19 to 22 especially in the rural. They think 28 years old is kind of too old to get married already. Imagine if you marry young. You can have as many as you like. What hold them back on fertility rate is state planning birth policy. If that is get rid of or modify to three child policy, there will be a dramatic increase in population.

It looks like the state is going to modify and enforce its three children policy in the next couple years. China president Xi just gets rid of the state birth planning agency. He probably will create another agency to mandate three child policy or relax the rule of two child policy: you can't have another child until after couple years.

The people in the rural will fully take advantage of its policy and plus more, because they need people to farm and do all kind of labor work to support the elders financially. They can replenish city population when need. Most rural people don't have permits to live in city. They have temporary working and resident permits though.

All these doesn't take robots and AI into account. I can imagine it will create more leisure time for people to have a bigger family in the future.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:13 AM
 
4,665 posts, read 2,639,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidmun View Post
Most people in China get married at very young age. Typical at age 19 to 22 especially in the rural. They think 28 years old is kind of too old to get married already. Imagine if you marry young. You can have as many as you like. What hold them back on fertility rate is state planning birth policy. If that is get rid of or modify to three child policy, there will be a dramatic increase in population.

It looks like the state is going to modify and enforce its three children policy in the next couple years. China president Xi just gets rid of the state birth planning agency. He probably will create another agency to mandate three child policy or relax the rule of two child policy: you can't have another child until after couple years.

The people in the rural will fully take advantage of its policy and plus more, because they need people to farm and do all kind of labor work to support the elders financially. They can replenish city population when need. Most rural people don't have permits to live in city. They have temporary working and resident permits though.

All these doesn't take robots and AI into account. I can imagine it will create more leisure time for people to have a bigger family in the future.
Really? I understand it to be the opposite. Relative to most of the world Chinese get married at an older age. Men in China canít legally marry until 22 and 20 for women. I believes itís the highest in the world. But, older (28+) women have a really difficult time getting married and often have to marry much older men. Rural areas are often exempt from national laws and many simply have ignored the 1 (and now 2) child policies if it even applies to them. I have a Chinese friend who has 6 brothers and sisters. Since they all work on farms, the government doesnít care.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:18 AM
 
4,665 posts, read 2,639,162 times
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Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
That is so not happening. The richer a country becomes the lower the birth rate will be. See Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The fertility rate in some of the richest Chinese provinces is even lower than countries with the lowest fertility rate. It will only go down from now.

The only way to solve a demographic collapse is through a strong welfare state or through immigration. China has neither of those.
Beijing and I believe Shanghai are both losing population already. For the last few decades Chinese migration from rural areas gave enough growth to the big cities, but that is already ending.
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Old 04-04-2018, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,774 posts, read 5,121,205 times
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Originally Posted by Mattks View Post
Really? I understand it to be the opposite. Relative to most of the world Chinese get married at an older age. Men in China canít legally marry until 22 and 20 for women. I believes itís the highest in the world. But, older (28+) women have a really difficult time getting married and often have to marry much older men. Rural areas are often exempt from national laws and many simply have ignored the 1 (and now 2) child policies if it even applies to them. I have a Chinese friend who has 6 brothers and sisters. Since they all work on farms, the government doesnít care.
Age at first marriage is much lower in China (24-26 yo) than all countries in the developed world (30 and above).
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Old 04-04-2018, 01:05 PM
 
6,726 posts, read 6,604,445 times
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Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
Age at first marriage is much lower in China (24-26 yo) than all countries in the developed world (30 and above).
That's mainly because China still has a big rural population. In these places people do not spend too much time in schools/colleges and "relationship" without marriage is not quite culturally acceptable.

But if you only look at cities (where most westerners live in), Chinese people get married pretty late. In fact before 25 is a minority, and 30+ is not uncommon.
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Old 04-06-2018, 09:38 PM
BMI
 
Location: Ontario
7,265 posts, read 4,499,214 times
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Originally Posted by attisbons View Post
For all you China experts, how do you see the recent declining trend in China's birth rate?

Is this good for the economy or bad? My observation is that it can't be exactly too bad since China's long had a population problem, but at the same time this does signal that China's no longer in the uber-rapid industrialization stage.
Better than Indiaís exploding birth rate....India will take over China ...if it hasnít done so already.

Imo the world doesnít need more people ...just over a billion around 1900
...now 7 times more ....ptobably mot a good thing...earth is finite.
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Old 04-06-2018, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Earth
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that is why we need to start colonization of the solar system
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:58 AM
 
1,003 posts, read 453,967 times
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Originally Posted by BMI View Post
Imo the world doesn’t need more people ...just over a billion around 1900
...now 7 times more ....ptobably mot a good thing...earth is finite.
The earth is finite, but it will outlive our own species and many, many more. The more important fact is that the Earths's ability to support human life is finite. Our population numbers WILL reach a peak and then decline. The question is whether it will happen through humans making smart decisions or through war, genocide, famine, natural disaster, etc.
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Old 04-08-2018, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,774 posts, read 5,121,205 times
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Originally Posted by Bettafish View Post
That's mainly because China still has a big rural population. In these places people do not spend too much time in schools/colleges and "relationship" without marriage is not quite culturally acceptable.

But if you only look at cities (where most westerners live in), Chinese people get married pretty late. In fact before 25 is a minority, and 30+ is not uncommon.
And? Rural population doesn't count? They are less Chinese than the Chinese people living in the cities?
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Old 04-08-2018, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Earth
4,516 posts, read 3,099,103 times
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Originally Posted by Greysholic View Post
And? Rural population doesn't count? They are less Chinese than the Chinese people living in the cities?
probably

they are cannon fodder for coming war in the south china sea
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