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Old 01-04-2019, 07:55 AM
 
Location: Taipei
6,775 posts, read 5,124,525 times
Reputation: 4566

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 415_s2k View Post
I have to be careful what I say because I am still in China, and things are quite sensitive these days...

Basically everyone, even in the gov't here, agrees that we're in for a rough ride in the coming years as China simultaneously grapples with a cooling/correcting economy and measures to re-centralize power via society and the economy. Of all major nations, China is probably better equipped to handle the difficulties facing it within its own legal and cultural frameworks - the US or EU are facing issues with a divided public and there isn't much that they can do to rein in either end of the social-political spectrum.

I have a vested interest in China's continued success, in no small part since my business, family, and life are centered here. But, I think that China played its hand a decade early in terms of its projections of strength and exceptionalism abroad; had it waited, then I think that much of what it's trying to achieve in global influence would have been a given. Because of how things are playing out now, it can still achieve its goals, but it's going to be more difficult.
It's obviously none of my business but if it was me I would try to leave while I could. I think many foreigners have left or are planning to leave (like those youtubers in China, Serpentza or VD something). Things are not looking too good these days, especially not in China, to put it mildly.

Last edited by Greysholic; 01-04-2019 at 08:07 AM..
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Honolulu
1,360 posts, read 547,271 times
Reputation: 1102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bettafish View Post
Can you prove nouveau riche move to western countries in order to pursue "political freedom"?
North Korea is a bad argument because it is dirt poor.

Singapore has limited political freedom (compared to western countries) but many Chinese move there.
Singapore has more political freedom than China, i.e. national election. And Singapore is the staunchest ally of U.S. in Southeast Asia. It has a U.S. naval base.

Of course, most newly riches who resettled in U.S. and these U.S. allies hardly bother to vote at all. What comes with political freedom is protection of property rights. The newly riches can park their money in these countries knowing for certain that it won't be confiscated by the government.

In China, the wealthiest can lose their wealth in a second. For example:

(1) They choose to stand on the wrong political side, i.e. pal of Bo Xilai, and were incarcerated then died in prison

(2) They could die suddenly without any cause, outside or inside of China, who were still very young

(3) They could be forced to give up their controlling stake, i.e. Jack Ma of Alibaba

In other words, huge wealth they accumulated in China could be catalyst to their plight. And their wealth is not exactly their wealth, but the party's wealth, if they don't move it outside China.

Last edited by Ian_Lee; 01-04-2019 at 12:10 PM..
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:17 PM
 
6,726 posts, read 6,607,688 times
Reputation: 2386
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian_Lee View Post
Singapore has more political freedom than China, i.e. national election. And Singapore is the staunchest ally of U.S. in Southeast Asia. It has a U.S. naval base.

Of course, most newly riches who resettled in U.S. and these U.S. allies hardly bother to vote at all. What comes with political freedom is protection of property rights. The newly riches can park their money in these countries knowing for certain that it won't be confiscated by the government.

In China, the wealthiest can lose their wealth in a second. For example:

(1) They choose to stand on the wrong political side, i.e. pal of Bo Xilai, and were incarcerated then died in prison

(2) They could die suddenly without any cause, outside or inside of China, who were still very young

(3) They could be forced to give up their controlling stake, i.e. Jack Ma of Alibaba

In other words, huge wealth they accumulated in China could be catalyst to their plight. And their wealth is not exactly their wealth, but the party's wealth, if they don't move it outside China.
Political freedom and a fair legal system are not the same thing. I do not deny the connections but they are not the same.

Many middle class and lower class Chinese want to move to western countries too, even if they do not worry about "money being confiscated".
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:28 PM
 
Location: Earth
4,520 posts, read 3,100,674 times
Reputation: 3363
I honestly don't what the communists do inside of china except to tibet. I'm more concerned about the their foreign policy, the south china sea, buying national security assets, and extending their rich. China is still a an authoritarian country. I'd rather trust donald trump more. There's at least checks and balances that seem to be holding. I'm not worried about chinese soft power. Chinese movies suck. Hong Kong cinema died with the takeover. Once donnie yen retires, its all over. No one uses wiebo. Chinese language is a hard language to master.
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Old 01-04-2019, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Arcadia, CA
131 posts, read 51,685 times
Reputation: 170
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clarallel View Post
Sad, of course.


How China’s Rulers Control Society: Opportunity, Nationalism, Fear

For years, many Western analysts believed the Chinese people, having endured decades of hardship under Mao, would tolerate one-party rule in exchange for rising incomes and more social freedom until the day — or so the argument went — that a newly prosperous nation would demand political freedoms, too.

Instead, the opposite has happened.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-control.html
Hardly surprising, IMO, like their predecessors in the 19th century, those Western analysts know little about Chinese mindset, so they simply applied Western mindset to the Chinese and then saw their assumptions collapsed like a house of cards.
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Old 01-05-2019, 06:42 PM
 
Location: Cebu, Philippines
4,416 posts, read 1,673,386 times
Reputation: 8038
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
China will need to go through another violent civil war before social justice, and humanitarian rule takes over, and let China finally join modern 1st world.
I'm not sure that "joining the modern first world" is any guarantee of social well-being.
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Old 01-05-2019, 07:19 PM
 
Location: Earth
4,520 posts, read 3,100,674 times
Reputation: 3363
Quote:
Originally Posted by cebuan View Post
I'm not sure that "joining the modern first world" is any guarantee of social well-being.

better to separate zhong guo into 3 kingdoms
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Old 01-06-2019, 03:55 PM
 
Location: In the heights
22,142 posts, read 23,668,851 times
Reputation: 11622
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
Doesnt mean it wont happen though. Maybe it wont be the direct cause, but still take place before any changes are made.

What non violent action has resulted in such?
Sweden and Denmark actually both went that way through fairly nonviolent protests as did Quebec through mostly nonviolence. Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore all went through pretty nonviolent transitions and the first two were quite authoritarian. Chile is another example which became pretty stable after the 1988 referendum.

There have been solid cases of transition from authoritarian rule to more open and democratic government.
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Old 01-06-2019, 07:34 PM
 
Location: Earth
4,520 posts, read 3,100,674 times
Reputation: 3363
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Sweden and Denmark actually both went that way through fairly nonviolent protests as did Quebec through mostly nonviolence. Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore all went through pretty nonviolent transitions and the first two were quite authoritarian. Chile is another example which became pretty stable after the 1988 referendum.

There have been solid cases of transition from authoritarian rule to more open and democratic government.

I think tibet would break off which I think would be better since it would a buffer state.



I think communist rule will end violently either with the economy crashing or a large natural disaster. This is generally what happened in the past.
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Old 01-06-2019, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Prepperland
13,735 posts, read 9,848,997 times
Reputation: 9853
Despite the richness and scope of Chinese philosophy and history, China is trapped by money madness which insures that the money powers rule China.
Partisan politics notwithstanding, most people prefer governments that help secure rights to life, liberty and property ownership, and dislike governments that enslave (compulsory charity) and steal (confiscation of surplus).
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