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Old 11-30-2009, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
29,352 posts, read 39,775,069 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fcorrales80 View Post
Doesn't Surprise me ONE bit. There was an earlier thread about how Phoenix needs skyscrapers like Dubai (which has the tallest in the world); however, I said it would be nice for Phoenix to have one but when I was in Dubai (last year) many of the buildings including the Burj Dubai (still under construction though) were nearly empty and/or just show pieces. Now it has caught up with them despite having the world's richest population and oil money. All that crazy, but yes cool construction projects, were too much too soon.
Phoenix and Dubai have that much in common.
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Old 11-30-2009, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
3,995 posts, read 8,868,377 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Phoenix and Dubai have that much in common.
Not really and to the scale that Dubai has built. It really is something else to behold when you are there. Many enormous projects like Ski Dubai, water parks, huge condo projects that no single one in Phoenix can measure up to (even NYC for that matter) are empty to slightly busy once in a while.

While too many homes in Phoenix have been foreclosed, that was mostly due to sub-prime loans but there were people to fill those properties; Dubai has vacant miles upon miles of development that was funded by oil money, investments, and of course loans that total over $60 billion dollars that cannot be repaid. Dubai is smaller than Phoenix but the debt with mortgage banks is on steroids compared to Phoenix.
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Old 11-30-2009, 04:55 PM
 
342 posts, read 1,728,983 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
Phoenix and Dubai have that much in common.
Actually Las Vegas is a lot more like Dubai than Phoenix.
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Old 11-30-2009, 05:51 PM
 
28,905 posts, read 46,745,065 times
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No, I think it's a completely different phenomenon. Whereas places such as Las Vegas, California, and South Florida had a bust based on the overvaluation of real estate that was actually occupied, Dubai's bust has come from breathtaking overbuilding of capacity far beyond any sane expectation. Even when they were building these huge projects several years ago, I remember thinking, "Okay, who the heck is going to live/work in these enormous buildings?" While the foreclosed properties in California, Nevada, and Florida will get sold off at fire-sale prices over the next three years and then occupied again, those buildings in Dubai will sit vacant for essentially forever.

Actually, the same problem will manifest itself in China as well. In every news report you see about China's supposed economic ascendancy, you see the inevitable shot of the gleaming new skyscrapers in Shanghai. However, what these so-called financial reports fail to mention is that those Chinese skyscrapers are typically only 20-35% occupied, when the break-even for those monsters is somewhere in the 75-80% range.
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Old 11-30-2009, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Anchored in Phoenix
1,942 posts, read 3,921,388 times
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The beauty of the free market is that excesses are punished and efficiencies are rewarded. Unless the losses are socialized. Then the pain persists.

Eventually the economic reaper pays a visit. Sooner or later the inefficiences will be wringed out.

Got gold?
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Old 11-30-2009, 11:53 PM
 
Location: Fairfax
2,880 posts, read 6,169,448 times
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Well Dubai has the property for sure now but where are the tenants? I think they may come in time. Dubai markets itself as the center of the world pretty much, so it does have a geat geographical advantage. Aside from being in the f-ing desert that is! And it's close proximity to the more established Abu Dhabi certainly doesn't help either, except when they bail them out financially. But we've seen many great power shifts throughout history and it's not inconceivable that the Middle East will grow in terms of power and influence in ways independent of oil money. If major Fortune 500s and international organizations want to make a bet on the Arab world they may choose Dubai, for its free zones, business friendliness (supposedly), and its soon-to-be-cheap property market.

We'll have to sit back and see-I'll get the popcorn!
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Old 11-30-2009, 11:56 PM
 
Location: Sandpoint, Idaho
2,897 posts, read 5,281,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevxu View Post
I've watched Dubai with the same awe that I watched the U.S., thinking "Does no one see what's going to happen? These folks are on a joyride."

Dubai as a Mideast financial center made sense, but that idea seemed to quite rapidly to spin off into uncontrolled grandiosity.
I find it incredible that anyone with half brain could not have seen this coming. The rocketing oil prices sustained this farce well beyond natural limits.

Once the oil runs out, this mirage will be reclaimed by the sand and by regional politics.

S.

P.S. Great shopping for gold, however!
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Old 12-01-2009, 01:16 PM
 
Location: MN
1,669 posts, read 5,602,008 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandpointian View Post
I find it incredible that anyone with half brain could not have seen this coming. The rocketing oil prices sustained this farce well beyond natural limits.

Once the oil runs out, this mirage will be reclaimed by the sand and by regional politics.

S.

P.S. Great shopping for gold, however!
Oil revenue makes up a very small percentage of the Dubai economy, maybe 5%. Abu Dhabi relies on oil revenue much more than Dubai.
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Old 12-02-2009, 08:41 AM
 
255 posts, read 515,080 times
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[quote=waronxmas;11819356]Who would have thunk you couldn't just drop a bunch of sand in the ocean and build a house on it and there wouldn't be problems quote]

hong kong's international airport was constructed basically the same way. took soil from nearby mountains and dumped in the middle of the ocean. it has consistently been rated as one of the world's top airports.
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