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Old 03-02-2011, 06:01 PM
 
6 posts, read 9,924 times
Reputation: 15

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rcsteiner View Post
Nothing like a broadside ad hominem attack to turn an argument your way.

Time heals all wounds. Atlanta may not be the same as it was in 2004-2005 with regards to the housing market for a few (or even several) years, but in time the economy here will approach normalcy.
Maybe, but what you call normalcy won't be the new, growing, and dynamic Atlanta that the 80's and 90's witnessed. I don't venture out past 285 much anymore, but I did recently, and I could see dramatic decline.

Atlanta may rebound and keep growing with the fastest counties in the U.S. Lot's of us doubt it though. There's just not that much of draw for Atlanta today. There once was, that's for sure.
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Old 03-02-2011, 06:41 PM
 
1,021 posts, read 2,047,449 times
Reputation: 1469
Quote:
Originally Posted by solewd View Post
Steelers,
Quote:
Originally Posted by solewd View Post
for what it's worth I've talked to two very well traveled and connected people over the last two years who have told me they doubt that Atlanta will turn around. This board is full of teens and wacko's, so you are arguing with fools more than likely. As soon as another place makes sense for our family, we are gone.

Well, solewd, the poster below made the following criticism of your statement:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rcsteiner View Post
Nothing like a broadside ad hominem attack to turn an argument your way.

Time heals all wounds. Atlanta may not be the same as it was in 2004-2005 with regards to the housing market for a few (or even several) years, but in time the economy here will approach normalcy.
However, solewd, a review of responses to me validate your point and it is clear that you have read them. See below:


Quote:
Originally Posted by testa50 View Post
Haha...If you think the ruling and 2012 requirement is news to me, then I don't know what to say. Your mind on the water issue is clearly made up, so it's not worth arguing. Have fun cheering against us.



Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
See here is why you are meeting so much resistance. I can't speak for everyone here, but I know several of the other posters and myself have spent a great deal of time discussing this very issue with great depth. We discussed the structural/engineering issues, the political issues, and the lawsuits that have us in this position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
Then every once in awhile... some outsider comes here... and makes some pretty bad assumptions about our problems with the ability to be sustainable based off of one or two little articles they read, which are mostly structured off of the narrative from a lawsuit Alabama has against the Army Corp of engineers and the state of Georgia. In most cases that is where the reporter got the narrative. It is very interesting to us when these people even talk down to us like they know more just from this article.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnatl View Post
And in summation, THIS is the true bottom line with you - each and every time you go on one of these diatribes. In my opinion, this is nothing more than a very thinly veiled (but very well worded) wish for the eventual demise of Metro Atlanta. Period.

Your words speak volumes. Just don't hold your breath.

So RCSteiner, maybe you should encourage some of your fellow posters to adhere to the terms of service and refrain from the personal attacks. You have one individual stating that I'm an "outsider" and I'm not part of a circle that comes on these forums and discuss these issues in great depth. Another poster is talking about "each and every time [i] go on one of these diatribes" which would indicate I am on these forums often. So which one is it?

And I am not sure how one roots for a city to fail. I certainly understand rooting for sports teams to lose. But what benefit would it be to me for Atlanta to fail? I was right about what would happen to New Orleans if struck by a hurricane of that intensity. I was living in Miami when Hurricane Katrina struck both cities and it certainly did not make me feel better or vindicated that both cities were hit and refugees from New Orleans colleges relocated to Miami. I seem to recall some pretty harsh sentiment towards many of these refugees in Atlanta.

So yes, I fully understand Solewd's response to me; many of these responses become personal making the posters come off like, yes, petulant teenagers or just otherwise imbalanced.

Many of these transplants to Atlanta come from Florida. Florida grew by over 125,000 people every year from 1950 to 2008 until finally the state had its first population decline. This is not a forecast, this is what has already happened in the past. But the ARC is forecasting 100,000 people a year just for Atlanta alone. Is this cheering against Atlanta? Is anyone not disconcerted by this figure? But for every two people that moved to Florida, one person left. So as Solewd stated, there are just some people that see the writing on the wall and when entire metropolitan areas (much less states) refuse to comprehensively plan, some people pick up stakes and move to more promising pastures, myself included. But you are somehow indicating that I am cheering for friends and family to fail. You don't me, so stick to what you do know if that involves anything substantive besides your own opinion.

So cautioning about the ills of unabated growth is not cheering for a city to fail. I own three books about Atlanta sprawl. And you are also discounting the fact that some of the growth in the Carolinas and Tennessee are from Atlanta transplants too. So to conclude:

1) Here is the link from 2002 where Atlanta's water crisis was forecasted (Atlanta was not singled out by the way)

2) Here is the link from 2007 (http://www.11alive.com/news/article_news.aspx?storyid=104561 - broken link) where Atlanta almost ran out of drinking water

3) And here is the link from 2011 where the Governor of Georgia still states that Atlanta is in a state of water crisis and something should be done

So we have nearly a decade of literature where nobody knew a drought was coming but based on the pre-existing infrastructure knew that a water crisis was impending in Atlanta. And I was even insulted for stating that the southeast could be susceptible to anthropogenically-caused desert conditions. I am not the one who described Lake Lanier is 2007 as a puddle surrounded by red dust. But of course the "Dust Bowl" was a figment of the American imagination!

As I have stated in previous posts, little to nothing has been done to ameliorate this water crisis. So who are you trying to convince, me or yourselves?
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Old 03-02-2011, 07:04 PM
 
30,601 posts, read 29,121,823 times
Reputation: 11457
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steelers10 View Post
So RCSteiner, maybe you should encourage some of your fellow posters to adhere to the terms of service and refrain from the personal attacks. You have one individual stating that I'm an "outsider" and I'm not part of a circle that comes on these forums and discuss these issues in great depth. Another poster is talking about "each and every time [i] go on one of these diatribes" which would indicate I am on these forums often. So which one is it?
All the personal jousting aside, I have enjoyed your posts. While I differ in some respects you've added a useful perspective.
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Old 03-02-2011, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
969 posts, read 1,736,471 times
Reputation: 624
But this is all just speculation, both your arguments and the ARC's projections. Metro Atlanta/Georgia were not the only places that added 100,000+ people a year... I don't know if we will see that kind of growth anywhere for awhile. Atlanta is getting to a size where growth is going to slow down and become more moderate, while places like Charlotte (which are still young and much smaller) will see bigger gains... then once they reach a certain size, their growth will begin to slow down. It only makes sense that would happen and it doesn't mean Atlanta is going down the crapper.

And again as you seemed to have overlooked my previous post... Miami has the Everglades to the west and the ocean to the east as a natural urban growth boundary, so it's much easier for them to guide growth in a more organized fashion. Atlanta doesn't have anything and can keep growing outward (the bad traffic has seemed to slow the outward growth some and more people are moving intown, which is always a good thing). Although I agree we need to enact some boundaries (like around water sources), where else do we draw the line and how do we do that? Who gets economic development and who doesn't? It's a lot more complicated than just drawing a line.
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Old 03-02-2011, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,099 posts, read 8,530,606 times
Reputation: 5280
Quote:
Originally Posted by solewd View Post
Maybe, but what you call normalcy won't be the new, growing, and dynamic Atlanta that the 80's and 90's witnessed. I don't venture out past 285 much anymore, but I did recently, and I could see dramatic decline.

Atlanta may rebound and keep growing with the fastest counties in the U.S. Lot's of us doubt it though. There's just not that much of draw for Atlanta today. There once was, that's for sure.
Well first off... you attacked the people here personally and made very poor assumptions. And you did it based upon the opinions of just two people you know and believe to we well traveled and educated enough to understand. We don't know who they are, they aren't here, and we don't even know their arguments justifications. That is a very poor argument to make.

I can't speak for every person here, but can for myself and a couple others actually have post-graduate degrees, very well traveled, very well educated, and have educational backgrounds and strong interests in these topics (the reason we are here and attracted to these forums). I have also noticed there are some college and graduate students here as well. Yes, there are some people who come here and are likely high schoolers, less educated, and a bit wacky, but in this case you are way off base.

Atlanta didn't just grow in the 80s and 90s. It grew in this past decade and is still growing today. We are recession affected like every major city is. Current economic estimates and forecasts based off those estimates show many industries are rebounding strongly, despite what looks like a 1 quarter lag behind the rest of the country. Some industries (like information/telecom) appear to be hit harder than others and might be more permanently affected, but our economy is well diversified and the other industries are recovering just fine. We grew, because of our geographic position in the United States and are transportation connections. We didn't lose that. As our country grows, interest in Atlanta will grow with it.

As far as outside 285 goes... decline...All I can say is.... Wow! It is where most of Atlanta's growth is. There is a high amount of wealth, including business wealth, especially to the northside.

Now I am really curious what you call "a dramatic decline." What you might accurately be seeing is as areas age and are maintained they become less desirable, but that doesn't mean there aren't other newer areas being built stealing that attention.

In other words you can't say the whole city is going down hill just because Jimmy Carter Boulevard or parts of Marietta doesn't look as nice as it once did.

Anyways... for someone that doesn't venture past 285 much.... you made some very ambitious comments that weren't well supported and you did it by personally insulting other people on poorly made assumptions.

I recommend spending some more time traveling this city/metro and really get to know and understand it better. It also wouldn't wouldn't hurt to fully analyze the data both from the census bureau and economic growth data.

If you did... you might not think we are just wacky high schoolers.

And if anyone just looks up a few newspaper articles... you haven't looked at or analyzed the data. This is the problem I see from many naysayers.... most of their arguments appear to come form narratives straight from newspaper and not the myriad of legal, academic, and planning details that are excluded from relatively brief, concise articles.

I suspect to some degree this was partly the problem with some of Steelers arguments, which were partly inconsistent and sometimes wrong. All of the major topics he touched on were all in the papers very publicly at some point, but he ignored many things that weren't in the papers.
His arguments lost me when he said Georgia's problem was solely lack of access to the Tennessee River and building long aqueducts.

Look at Steeler's last argument he didn't appear to know of any of Gwinnett Counties plans or past actions. Most of the details I spotted out about Gwinnett Co. came straight from Gwinnett County itself. Most new developments near an undeveloped fringe are left without major sewer mains until the county better understands the need and use of the area and the cheapest way for the county to build (and cheaply maintain long-term) the system. That is why I pointed out the developer put in sewer pump stations, but yet he started to argue they probably wouldn't do anything about it and it was just hope. Gwinnett County is well aware of it, permitted the pump stations, and have done this in the past. There are reasons why Gwinnett County today is actually very well run. He was being cute... and did the "in bold is what is actually happening" and "in red had not happened and is just hope." That isn't true, in red is exactly what has happened in the past and the county considers for long-term planning considerations. That is why I keep making statements about my worry of people being misled.

--It isn't that Steelers doesn't know many things, but he conveniently doesn't know, is leaving out, and making false assumptions on many (but very important) details, which leads to poor conclusions that reflect his personal opinion.--

I hate saying this... because it will just bring out another long diatribe, but I don't want people on this forum misled either (especially the frequent posters I'm use to seeing).

Just a quick random quip... to those interested in planning issues... Gwinnett Co gets a big for making many of their details, concerns, and plans publicly and easily available. They are far ahead of the metro area in this way.
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Old 03-02-2011, 09:08 PM
 
1,021 posts, read 2,047,449 times
Reputation: 1469
To the above post: this individual will keep making personal judgements and talking about plans to do things. And by saying, all this will bring is "another diatribe", is that supposed to not make me write one? My sources of information are completely transparent and verifiable; should I have to address every incorrect assumption you make when I have consistently posted the material off of which I based my opinion? Why do you care the length of the post, especially since yours are of a commensurate length? If you don't want your postulations refuted and you don't value anyone else's opinion other than your own, why are you even on a discussion board?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mike7586 View Post
And again as you seemed to have overlooked my previous post... Miami has the Everglades to the west and the ocean to the east as a natural urban growth boundary, so it's much easier for them to guide growth in a more organized fashion. Atlanta doesn't have anything and can keep growing outward (the bad traffic has seemed to slow the outward growth some and more people are moving intown, which is always a good thing). Although I agree we need to enact some boundaries (like around water sources), where else do we draw the line and how do we do that? Who gets economic development and who doesn't? It's a lot more complicated than just drawing a line.
Oh, I haven't overlooked your previous post. It just is not true. So much like my reference to the previous poster, I believe everyone is entitled to an opinion. Therefore, I am not going to fact check on incorrect assumptions until it is directed at me like I have committed some personal foible. However, since I am being accused of overlooking it, here it goes:

Florida has long supported both intensive regional planning and acquisition of conservation lands (although funds for that have lately dried to a trickle). An established urban growth boundary for the county imposes limits on development toward the Everglades in the west and the agricultural area to the south, so thinking was already oriented toward infill. An Open Space System Master Plan, shepherded by the county parks and recreation department, was enthusiastically adopted just two years ago.

Feel free to read the entire article from this past December at this link. I would definitely like you all to read this article. Not all of Miami development abuts the ocean or Biscayne Bay. There is also an urban growth boundary to the east of suburbia which lies to the south of Miami and Coral Gables along the edge of Biscayne National Park. The cookie cutter neighborhood you see on the edge of the farmland is one very much like my own. It was in a narrow neck of land bordered by Biscayne National Park to the east, Everglades National Park to the West, and the portion of the Everglades that separates Homestead from Key Largo to the South.

What has gone on Miami and the devaluation of my home as well as those of friends and family and the lessons Atlanta needs to learn can be gleaned from these articles, especially the second one. The urban growth boundaries were good and caused the area to rebound after Hurricane Andrew. The UDBs drove land values up. But look how closely the houses are together in the picture. Almost all of what was inside of the UDB was farmland and Homestead lies in the center of this "U" shaped parcel formed by the UDB.

Although Greater Homestead only had a population of about 30,000 in 2000 the population has tripled;Since 2002, the city has experienced a building and housing boom due to the scarcity of developable land elsewhere in Miami-Dade County. But like some of the outer areas of Atlanta, Homestead is about 30 miles away from Downtown Miami. When gas prices skyrocketed, the housing market collapsed. The agricultural workers can't afford houses and all the subdivisions were built over top of the farms anyway. I remember seeing the buses roll in and out full of laborers from Little Haiti north of downtown because agricultural workers couldn't afford to live in the area anymore. But the UDB bowl lost its market when the recession hit.

Atlanta has already experienced a lot of this but I think has weathered the storm more effectively due a more diversified economy. Miami-Dade Transit has built a bus lane down to Homestead over which the Metrorail can be extended. But that is just a plan; as the article says densities need to be further increased inside of the UDB bowl. Yet Atlanta hasn't fared that much better; while Florida was ranked third in the rate of foreclosures in the first half of 2010, Georgia was ranked sixth. And Georgia is not some fly-by-night palm tree tourism economy like Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California ahead of it on the list (I'm not sure what Utah's deal is).

So I must respectfully disagree that Atlanta has NO natural barriers to development. The mountains covered by the Chattahoochee National Forest are pretty formidable. It is much cheaper to drain the swamp and build on flat land (or already drained farmland in the case of Homestead) then it is up the side of rolling hills and mountains. But at least Florida's foreclosure woes are divided between South Florida and Orlando. Atlanta does not want to find itself in the position (well, let's face it, Atlanta's pretty much there) where the publicly financed infrastructure (water, sewer, roads, waste disposal)cannot keep pace with a proliferation of suburban sprawl residential developments. So when Miami fell apart, there were other parts of the state to take up the slack, somewhat. But if Atlanta collapses all of Georgia is going with it.

So to the previous poster, if what is Gwinnett is doing is so great, then why is the governor still saying there is a water crisis? You are conveniently dismissing YOUR local news. Once again, don't call me a liar, you take it up with the governor of Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and south Georgians opposing the impact of metro Atlanta's "plans" for the lower Chattahoochee and Flint River Basins! But yes, don't watch the news or read the newspaper or watch the Weather Channel. Make sure you "analyze the data". What "data" should be analyzed? If your local news and newspapers are incorrect, please supply us with your bibliography. I would love to read the peer-reviewed journal article and Gwinnett County's longitudinal study that says the governor is not playing "Chicken Little" and that Atlanta wasn't down to a 90-day water supply in 2007.

Last edited by Steelers10; 03-02-2011 at 09:30 PM..
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Old 03-02-2011, 09:10 PM
 
6 posts, read 9,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steelers10 View Post
[color=black][font=Verdana]
And you are also discounting the fact that some of the growth in the Carolinas and Tennessee are from Atlanta transplants too.
Some of the cities in TN and the Carolinas are now recruiting business and residents by virtue of explicitly telling prospective tenants that they ARE NOT like Atlanta. And then there is that 800lb gorilla...Dallas..
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Old 03-02-2011, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
969 posts, read 1,736,471 times
Reputation: 624
But the only reason why they enacted an urban growth boundary is because they only have limited space. If they didn't (like Atlanta) they probably wouldn't have bothered either. It's like developing on an island... you only have so much room and you can't develop it all, so some land has to be protected making it much easier to plan where growth should go and where it shouldn't. The mountains to the north of Atlanta are not that close to create a real boundary.

I was asking... in an area where there are really no clear boundaries, how do you create one? How do you decide who gets development and who doesn't?
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Old 03-02-2011, 10:03 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,333 posts, read 23,519,566 times
Reputation: 3952
Quote:
Originally Posted by solewd View Post
Maybe, but what you call normalcy won't be the new, growing, and dynamic Atlanta that the 80's and 90's witnessed. I don't venture out past 285 much anymore, but I did recently, and I could see dramatic decline.

Atlanta may rebound and keep growing with the fastest counties in the U.S. Lot's of us doubt it though. There's just not that much of draw for Atlanta today. There once was, that's for sure.
The speed of development here has been seen by many as a problem, not a benefit. I think its geographic position has always been its major draw, and that won't change unless something more radical happens than has happened so far.

My own area outside of the perimeter (northern Mableton and the southern Smyrna border) has seen some significant positive development since I moved to the metro area in 2004. Several large new developments have started and completed during that time, and several more have started and either stopped in place for a while or never really got off the ground. The latter (abandoned projects) are a large concern, but the former group is slowly starting to move forward again.

I don't know enough to disagree with your general conclusions or viewpoint, but I do find it interesting. FWIW.
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Old 03-02-2011, 10:09 PM
 
Location: Mableton, GA USA (NW Atlanta suburb, 4 miles OTP)
11,333 posts, read 23,519,566 times
Reputation: 3952
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steelers10 View Post
So RCSteiner, maybe you should encourage some of your fellow posters to adhere to the terms of service and refrain from the personal attacks. You have one individual stating that I'm an "outsider" and I'm not part of a circle that comes on these forums and discuss these issues in great depth. Another poster is talking about "each and every time [i] go on one of these diatribes" which would indicate I am on these forums often. So which one is it?
Certainly personal attacks should be frowned upon on C-D... I was merely commenting because I found it interesting that such a sweeping comment was made, mostly because of the manner in which it was made. I thought it was rather funny.

FWIW, I think you make interesting, and I think also good, points. I appreciate your postings here even if some might not.
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