Is Atlanta's Eyes Bigger than its Stomach? (Dallas: prices, move)

[johnatl]

Originally Posted by rcsteiner

How is it showing? Not in the unemployment numbers...

The numbers are better than they were, but just bumped up again. I'm talking about the overall feeling I get in my part of Atlanta. Condos in my neighborhood are selling, friends that were unemployed are working again, etc.

I remember what happened to Houston in the 80's - what we are seeing here doesn't even come close.

[arjay57]

Originally Posted by BringBackCobain

Shut up arjay. Stop trying to bring race into it. My comment had nothing to do with that.

My bad. Sorry I misunderstood where you were going.

[Galounger]

Originally Posted by Spade

To be fair. Houston is actually figuring this out and in the long term, they should be fine as well. Growing IT field, fast growing and expanding medical field in already the biggest medical center in the world, and a very important and successful port that handles alot more than just oil and will become even more important once the Panama Canal is done with expansion in 2014. Oil and gas is less than 50% of the cities economy. Which is what it was in the 80s when Houston was going through what Atlanta is going through now. Hell, Houston even lost population for a year because of it.

Dallas and Houston especially I think are still dependent enough on oil that when the inevitable move from fossil fuels to other energy sources comes it's going to be devastating to them unless they are in some way heavily involved with this move.

I never understood the point of a huge medical center like that unless it's just that big of a regional center. I certainly hope that other regional centers are enough on par with each other in the U.S. that there's no need for inter regional travel in order to get most any kind of care you need.

The ports in Georgia are also extremely successful especially when it comes to dollar value of cargo as opposed to tonnage. They are also far far more diversified than Texas ports. They are poised for a lot of expansion and increased activity when the new super cargo ships being built in Asia set sail.

Atlanta did take a major hit with the recession because so much of it's economy was tied into real estate and construction but let's not forget that the entire world is experiencing an economic slow down not just Atlanta. One of the things that has been exacerbating this slow down has been rising Oil prices. That's why there is now so much impetus for the world to find ways to get away from fossil fuels and why I wouldn't feel so comfortable in Texas over the long run.

[rcsteiner]

Originally Posted by johnatl

The numbers are better than they were, but just bumped up again. I'm talking about the overall feeling I get in my part of Atlanta. Condos in my neighborhood are selling, friends that were unemployed are working again, etc.

I remember what happened to Houston in the 80's - what we are seeing here doesn't even come close.

That's fair, and I know I've seen several formerly-stagnant subdivisions start building new houses again in the past several months. That's a very good sign as far as I'm concerned!

[Spade]

I will say Galounger that I disagree with many statements in your post and am willing to discuss them at another time in another forum. But this is about Atlanta in the Atlanta forum so I won't continue the discussion out of respect for the Atlanta posters here.

[DarkWolf]

Originally Posted by johnatl

Many, many more are leaving the region altogether for the South & West, and have been for decades. You just refuse to admit it.

Only 300,000 have left the NE for the south over the past decade , were still growing but at a slower pace..... The NE should grow by another 17% by 2025.....while the South will grow at 30%.....

[Akhenaton06]

Originally Posted by Galounger

Dallas and Houston especially I think are still dependent enough on oil that when the inevitable move from fossil fuels to other energy sources comes it's going to be devastating to them unless they are in some way heavily involved with this move.

Not sure about Houston, but I don't think you'd have to worry about Dallas. The telecommunications/hi-tech sector there is probably almost just as big as the energy sector. You also have defense and aircraft manufacturing that are huge in neighboring Fort Worth.

[bu2]

Galounger, I don't think you are too familiar with Texas.

Someone did make a point that the Texas recession of the 80s was far worse than what Atlanta is facing now. And it was far worse than what just about any state is facing now, with the exception of maybe Michigan and Nevada. In 1986, it was estimated that 1 in 4 people in Houston lost their jobs.

I lived through that recession, so it was obvious to me 3 years ago that Atlanta was due for a serious nose dive. There were simply too many cranes. The government was trying to encourage all this density and there are only so many people who want to and can afford to live in high rise condos or luxury 5 story apartments. Atlanta's economy, while diverse, was very much based on one industry-Constant Growth. That industry is dead and it will take quite a while to recover. What happened to Texas was that people were betting on $100/bbl oil and when it dropped from $40 to $12 almost overnight the Constant Growth industry died. Atlanta is also hampered by so much of its economy being based on distribution, which suffers when the rest of the country is in a slump. Atlanta is seriously overbuilt. At one point there was a 99 year supply of high rise condos before they started all the auctions. And its big projects all try to recreate the same thing that's not selling. The government is too involved in the process. In Texas, in many cases, real estate got converted from big projects to single family housing. Here the city will stand in the way.

What will also slow Atlanta is that the city itself is not very friendly to small business and taxes are high. Atlanta needs its national companies to start hiring again.

[Chalie Brown]

Originally Posted by Galounger

Dallas and Houston especially I think are still dependent enough on oil that when the inevitable move from fossil fuels to other energy sources comes it's going to be devastating to them unless they are in some way heavily involved with this move.

I never understood the point of a huge medical center like that unless it's just that big of a regional center. I certainly hope that other regional centers are enough on par with each other in the U.S. that there's no need for inter regional travel in order to get most any kind of care you need.

The ports in Georgia are also extremely successful especially when it comes to dollar value of cargo as opposed to tonnage. They are also far far more diversified than Texas ports. They are poised for a lot of expansion and increased activity when the new super cargo ships being built in Asia set sail.

Atlanta did take a major hit with the recession because so much of it's economy was tied into real estate and construction but let's not forget that the entire world is experiencing an economic slow down not just Atlanta. One of the things that has been exacerbating this slow down has been rising Oil prices. That's why there is now so much impetus for the world to find ways to get away from fossil fuels and why I wouldn't feel so comfortable in Texas over the long run.

Houston energy industry is more than just oil. It includes fossil fuel exploration. Texas will be just fine.

[arjay57]

There’s an article in today’s paper about Regent Partners and Pope & Land launching a new project on Peachtree, next to the 3344 building. It says they are hoping to get an early jump on the next commercial real estate development cycle.

So who knows what the future holds?

Regent, Pope & Land team up on new Buckhead project | Atlanta Business Chronicle