1996 Home Prices (Atlanta, Smyrna, Alpharetta: real estate, foreclosures, house)

[K'ledgeBldr]

According to this report we have stepped back to 1996:
U.S. Building Market Intelligence, August 2011 | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

[K-SawDude]

Thanks for posting that. As I've been suggesting in this thread (Atlanta Housing Market Update: Early 2011), it seems more and more to me that Atlanta may be at a bottom (or may actually be overshooting the bottom). I know there was overbuilding here, but it wasn't nearly as bad as Vegas and some other places. Particularly because Atlanta never really had the huge bubble that other cities experienced:

http://blog.redfin.com/atlanta/files...ts_2011-05.png

http://blog.redfin.com/atlanta/files...es_2011-05.png

Looking at these charts, Atlanta had more of a Dallas-like path (not inflated) than a Vegas one. And yet prices are getting punished here at Vegas-levels in some cases. Foreclosures seem to be the main culprit here, and I have a feeling that prices are going to rise steadily once that inventory clears over the next year or so. We seem to have steady in-migration, and the employment picture is looking better. (In other words, I don't think we're in anywhere near as bad a shape as Vegas.)

As long as buyers do their research, it seems to me that there are some amazing values to be had in Atlanta right now.

[lorilove]

My house will soon be appraised for a HELOC - ugh! I really don't want to know what the appraised value is.

I am not under the water, I am not moving anytime soon. I don't need the appraisal to hit a specific number. I am just happy living in my own reality and pretending the value of my home is not that bad.

What is worse is that I have to pay for the appraisal - nothing like paying for your own torture!

[lastminutemom]

K-Saw

I am curious what evidence you see that the job market is improving. There have been three families in my neighborhood that have left in the last month because of jobs other places (these are probably upper management, midlevel executive types). Of the three, only one home has been occupied and that is by a renter, who can't sell their house in Nashville. Unemployment numbers show very little change in ATL or GA.

I would never compare Atlanta to Vegas, but we do have many barely started or half finished subdivisions not to mentioned lots of land waiting to be developed. I worry at the first sign of recovery that builders will start building and existing inventory will not get absorbed.

[lorilove]

Originally Posted by lastminutemom

I would never compare Atlanta to Vegas, but we do have many barely started or half finished subdivisions not to mentioned lots of land waiting to be developed. I worry at the first sign of recovery that builders will start building and existing inventory will not get absorbed.

Not sure where you live, but in Smyrna it is quite obvious that many of the new subdivisions that were halted at the beginning of the down market are now building. In some cases, new (but established) builders appear to be in there. I am guessing they bought the property at a good price due to foreclosure of the original builders.

Commercial building appears to be much slower to return.

[RainyRainyDay]

Originally Posted by lastminutemom

I would never compare Atlanta to Vegas, but we do have many barely started or half finished subdivisions not to mentioned lots of land waiting to be developed. I worry at the first sign of recovery that builders will start building and existing inventory will not get absorbed.

This worries me too. My spouse and I don't want to spend the rest of our lives in the Atlanta area. We're not in a rush to leave right now, but would like to think we might be able to consider moving in about five years' time. We're not under water, but the way things seem to be going, we're afraid that we might not be able to unload our home, even five years from now.

[mrpanda]

I think real estate is extremely local here in Atlanta. While majority is now in the red... including highly sought after real estate in Johns Creek, Milton, Alpharetta, and Suwanee, however homes in Forsyth County is surpising in the green.

Forsyth County median home price: $217,100
MoM = +1.8%
QoQ = +5.5%
YoY = +2.2%

I hope this upward trend continues for the homes in Forsyth.. Gwinnett County is getting absolutely murdered.

[mrpanda]

Forsyth County homes prices have only retraced back to 2004 levels while homes in Suwanee and Duluth is back to 1999 levels depending on where you live... This is absolutely crazy for the residents living in Gwinnett as it certainly will take them until 2021 to get back the equity they put into the home!!!!

[testa50]

Originally Posted by lastminutemom

K-Saw

I am curious what evidence you see that the job market is improving. There have been three families in my neighborhood that have left in the last month because of jobs other places (these are probably upper management, midlevel executive types). Of the three, only one home has been occupied and that is by a renter, who can't sell their house in Nashville. Unemployment numbers show very little change in ATL or GA.

I would never compare Atlanta to Vegas, but we do have many barely started or half finished subdivisions not to mentioned lots of land waiting to be developed. I worry at the first sign of recovery that builders will start building and existing inventory will not get absorbed.

Our job market is definitely performing at least as well as Las Vegas, which has a 14% unemployment rate and has been slaughtered worse than anyone in the country. We are basically in the same holding pattern as Charlotte right now.

[K-SawDude]

Originally Posted by lastminutemom

K-Saw

I am curious what evidence you see that the job market is improving. There have been three families in my neighborhood that have left in the last month because of jobs other places (these are probably upper management, midlevel executive types). Of the three, only one home has been occupied and that is by a renter, who can't sell their house in Nashville. Unemployment numbers show very little change in ATL or GA.

I would never compare Atlanta to Vegas, but we do have many barely started or half finished subdivisions not to mentioned lots of land waiting to be developed. I worry at the first sign of recovery that builders will start building and existing inventory will not get absorbed.

I think it depends on the neighborhood (hence my last comment about doing your research carefully). I have no doubt some neighborhoods will be decimated and may never recover. But that would be true even if we weren't in a recession. The problem with a recession is the frequency/vastness of neighborhoods impacted. (But it's always possible for a neighborhood, even in a good economy, to fall apart if it becomes abandoned, irresponsible neighbors take over the neighborhood, etc.)

I just think there are probably some very undervalued homes in good to excellent neighborhoods that aren't being bought due to ultra-tight lending standards and generally low demand right now. To a certain extent, the stock market principle of buy low/sell high ought to apply to housing purchases too. It's usually better to buy when other people aren't. (And a house is still a less risky bet than a stock IMO.)

But private employment in ATL does seem to be edging into a better position, especially compared to a couple of years ago. Testa's recent threads on employment and some write-ups in the papers during this year seemed to suggest we've stopped bleeding jobs and are stabilizing.

Of course, I could be wrong and maybe we're heading into an even worse recession/depression. But looking at all the data, I do get the feeling housing overall in ATL must be getting close to a bottom.

(And to be clear: I only make the Vegas comparison to point out that housing values in Atlanta seem to be getting punished as hard as places like Vegas, even though we never had anywhere near as much bubble-inflation and have had a somewhat stronger employment record. As far as fundamentals go, it just seems like housing values in ATL are overcorrecting at present.)